Commodity Worth Watching

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Commodity Worth Watching David Maloni
David Maloni is the chief commodity analyst for the American Restaurant Association with his expertise and analytics featured in The Weekly Commodity Report, The Daily Commodity Bulletin and is referenced in various news articles. David specializes in proteins, dairy and grains. He can be contacted at info@americanrestaurantassociation.com. Visit the ARA website at www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Another Commodity Bubble?

As one can tell from the chart below, the commodity index has risen roughly 48% since it bottomed nearly a year ago. 
Friday, November 06, 2009

Cheesy Dairy Market Concerns

The international cheddar, butter, whey and milk powder markets have all surged more than 30% since the beginning of September.
Thursday, October 15, 2009

Cheese Bullishness

World dairy prices at the levels experienced during the spring of this year really aren’t sustainable with the existing feed cost structure in place. 
Friday, October 09, 2009

Prime Beef Supplies

At times during the past year, the percentage of cattle grading prime has also trended well above prior year averages.  Right now is one of those times. 
Thursday, September 24, 2009

Beef Prices and the Aussies

The chart of the week is the value of the Australian dollar (versus the US dollar) and the US 90% beef trimmings market.  What does one have to do with the other?  Good question!
Thursday, September 10, 2009

Still watching chicken production...closely

The result is that chicken production during the last week of August was the largest for any week not following a shortened holiday week in nearly a year.
Thursday, September 03, 2009

Ethanol and Corn Dancing Again

The chart of the week is the economic incentive for gasoline blenders to utilize ethanol.
Friday, August 28, 2009

Milk Supply is Changing

The chart of the week is the monthly milk production change compared to the prior year.  As one can tell from the chart, it’s been a long time since we have experienced a decline in milk output.   How long?  How about sixty months or five years!
Thursday, August 06, 2009

Commodity Bullishness

After peaking in March the value of the US dollar index has fallen roughly 13%.
Friday, July 31, 2009

Hog Producers Persistent Problems

June sow slaughter was the largest in 8 months, but sow slaughter since then has basically trended near 5 year average levels. 
Thursday, July 23, 2009

Another Choice Beef Surprise Coming?

Prime cattle slaughter has been trending below year ago levels in recent months as the prime grade percentages have returned to more normal levels.
Friday, July 17, 2009

Revisiting Food Inflation, Ethanol and Idaho Potatoes

This note is a follow up from a blog post last year where I suggested that elevated grain prices were pulling acreage from other crops including potatoes. I
Thursday, July 09, 2009

Watching Chicken Production...Closely

The 6 week moving average for broiler egg sets has been trending well below prior year levels. However, last week’s broiler egg sets were just 3% less than a year ago which is the smallest decline since September. 


Thursday, June 25, 2009

Milk Production Declines on the Way

Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending June 13th was 50% larger than the 5 year average for the week.
Friday, June 19, 2009

Chicken Wing in a Coal Mine

Boneless skinless chicken breast prices typically trade well above the chicken wing market. As of late though, the chicken wing market has traded at or above the boneless skinless breast market due to production cutbacks.
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Agriculture Markets
Futures MO Last Chg
Corn December 391'0 -4'0
Soybeans January 1046'0 7'0
Wheat December 559'6 -2'6
Milk November 14.06 0.00
Feeder Cattle January 92.675 0.850
Live Cattle December 83.950 0.275
Lean Hogs December 57.600 1.625
Cotton December 70.41 0.00

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