Alan Brugler
Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor. He grew up on a dairy farm in Northeast Ohio, and the farm (Ridge Dell Holsteins) is still in the family, operated by his brother Glenn and father Bob. Alan is an Honors graduate of Ohio State University, with a Master of Science degree, and 30 years of commodity market experience. Alan has conducted more than 600 seminars and presentations for farm and commodity trading audiences, and is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). He is also a regular guest analyst for Farm Journal''s U.S. Farm Report as well as AgDay TV.
Friday, November 20, 2009Despite a stronger US dollar index for the week, and a recent tendency for ag prices to trade opposite to the dollar, all of the ag commodities we track showed net gains for the week.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009Grains and oilseeds held their gains better than they had the week before, but livestock prices were under pressure. USDA cut back on projected corn production and yield, but boosted soybean expectations to both record average yields and record production.
Friday, November 06, 2009Grain prices got off to a bullish start, but gave back all or nearly all of the gains by Friday's close. Livestock were also lower. Only gold showed a lot of bullish shine, tipping the $1100/ounce mark for the first time.
Friday, October 30, 2009The US dollar index rose for most of the week, and both commodities and equities prices dropped in response. Cotton dodged the bearish bullets to a degree because of yield shrinking weather in the central US. Hogs and rice were the big gainers for the week. The latter had the same weather issues as the cotton. Hogs were up on firmer wholesale prices tied to ideas that China was coming back into the market.
Friday, October 09, 2009USDA released its much anticipated October crop report on Friday, with a record projected corn yield. Ending stocks figures for corn were no worse than trade estimates, and the soybean figure of only 230 million bushels was supportive.
Friday, October 02, 2009Feed grains tried to rally during the week, thanks to cold weather forecasts and somewhat friendly USDA numbers on Wednesday. However, position squaring ahead of this week's Crop Production numbers (and bearish ideas of how big those numbers will be) weighed on the market on Friday. The soy complex was down on larger than expected old crop stocks of 138 million bushels, and bearish production estimates. Livestock were also lower, with weakness in wholesale and cash prices, which in turn is tied to large seasonal slaughter runs.
Friday, September 25, 2009Cool but not cold described not only the weather forecast, but also the price action for the week. Most of the ag commodities showed negative changes for the week. Corn was a notable exception.
Monday, September 21, 2009Weather models overstated the potential for subfreezing temps in the central US, fueling a sharp rally in the grains on Tuesday. By the weekend, the weather forecasts had tipped back to normal or above normal temps and it was the corn prices that were chilled. Livestock were lower despite a cheap US dollar, influenced by the USDA Cattle on Feed report and the upcoming Hogs & Pigs report. The Cattle on Feed report was viewed as neutral to slightly bearish in terms of the news, with larger than expected September 1 On Feed numbers.
Friday, September 11, 2009USDA released updated production forecasts for corn and soybeans, with a record yield projection for corn and a record crop total for soybeans. Livestock saw small gains in both cattle and hogs, but consumer and export demand continues to be modest.
Friday, September 04, 2009It may be another 6 weeks until the bulk of the US corn crop can be assumed to be safe from frost, but the futures markets were getting pretty comfortable with the idea of record crops this week. New crop corn and soybean prices were sharply lower, and old crop corn dropped to the lowest reading since December 2008. Hogs on the other hand were able to rally more than 5%.
Friday, August 21, 2009Chinese buying interest for new crop US beans was impressive, and Stats Canada showed smaller than expected canola production is likely in 2009. Corn benefitted from a more positive hog market, and from improving export sales aided by a weak US dollar. The Cattle on Feed report was bearish because of much larger than expected July placements.
Friday, August 14, 2009The August 12 USDA reports were widely anticipated, one of the biggest fundamental market news parties of the year. After the smoke cleared, traders seemed to have a bit of a hangover and just couldn't get into buying the grains. Cattle were a little higher due to more limited numbers, and hogs also managed to post a plus sign for the week. That hasn't happened often in the past two months.
