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Are You Upside Down on Selling?

9/3/2009
I just got back from the Farm Journal Corn College event and speaking at the Farm Progress show.  In both cases I observed producers who are more worried about the crop being out there than the trade. Many were wondering why the market was not going up on concern about frost and the lateness of the crop. After talking with them a little more you found out why—they have sold very little of this 2009 crop.

While it’s not a scientific study, I get the strong impression that producers are really upside down on this year’s crop. They have high cost above current cash values even with the bigger potential yields. They did little selling in the 2008 highs for 2009 and have been waiting for a weather event all year to bail them out. Now that we are down at these low levels, they are going to put the crop in the bin and hope for a 2007 or 2008 demand event to bail out of the unsold storage decision. 

In the 28 years I’ve been in the market, I don’t quite remember when producers were so uniformly on one side of the boat coming into the fall. They don’t have enough storage space for the crop, they are not sold and the crops not going to be a crop that stores well for a long time.

What’s this all mean? Eventually, producers are going to have to bite the bullet and price the crop. I believe they are going to wait as long as possible. I would suggest this is a mistake. I would be actively looking for opportunities to sell inventory on any price bounce in the December 2009 corn back to $3.30. The only way this is going to happen is if we do get a frost scare in the month of September and beans take off.

As for corn producers who did sell the crop: You have some management decisions coming up.  Do you simply liquidate the hedge or roll?  I would suggest, if no frost scare of significance develops until the second week of October we are going to have price pressure clear to Thanksgiving. I would focus on rolling the December cash contracts and hedges forward to the July 2010 in this time period. As for long puts, it’s more difficult for me. In fact the cost of time value versus the carry incentive could be almost a scratch.  Therefore, I would suggest you liquidate your puts and simply sell the cash and be done with the 2009 crop.

Outside markets: We would like to start alerting clients that we anticipate a secondary high within the first quarter of 2010 in the bond market. This will be the last really good chance to lock in long term rates on the bonds. It’s time to start talking to your advisor at UMS about how to protect interest rates. Additionally, we are watching the natural gas contract for a low so we can lock up and protect long term upside risk in nitrogen cost exposure. You are going to hear me talk a lot about controlling input cost upside long term risk exposure. If we can control our interest cost and fertilizer cost exposure, it will go a long way to helping us sell corn because we have a better handle on the profit margin.

If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at utterback@utterbackmarketing.com
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2009.
 
 
 

Tuesday, September 08, 2009 12:31 AM by: Anonymous
Some 180 million acres planted to these so called gmo seeds across country every year. With an average $7.00 an acre tech fee, year after year. They should be able to create something descent with that kind of money year after year after year and after year. 32,000 kernels of corn at $75.00 not bad. If market prices drop Im sure they will adjust their seed prices accordingly.

Monday, September 07, 2009 11:49 AM by: Anonymous
I am a city fat cat and grow corn to eat 7" by 16 rows. If we dont move all the corn we have the carry for 2010 will be 2.6 to 3.0 Talk about 1.80-2.00 prices for Dec 2010 contracts. Prices were at this level for years prior to 2005. The farmers did a great job of a record crop, the seed companies did a great job of hybrids. There is talk by 2015 of 190-210 yields for the average by the seed people.

Monday, September 07, 2009 11:19 AM by: Anonymous
I'm a grain farmer and cattle feeder. Us producers need to band together and oppose a market system where the commodity prices are set by city fat cats who have never been on a farm or know anything about how crops are really grown. We need to return to a parity pricing system as outlined in Charles Walter's book "Unforgiven". Corn producers are currently getting 35% of parity and fed cattle is at 33%. A parity system would mean higher food prices, but our nation's backbone industry--agriculture--would be profitable. Our current path will bring the US to financial ruin. It is completely unsustainable.

Sunday, September 06, 2009 7:01 PM by: Anonymous
:(

Sunday, September 06, 2009 6:53 PM by: Victor Frame Frame
Real value at $3.00 corn and $8.50 beans. Traders will be blind sided by greed as in the past.

Saturday, September 05, 2009 11:46 AM by: Anonymous
2 dollar corn 5 dollar beans

Saturday, September 05, 2009 11:18 AM by: Anonymous
Again, you had plenty of chances to average $4-4.50 corn, but CHOSE not to.

Saturday, September 05, 2009 1:55 AM by: Anonymous
This isnt a battle for acres, this is a battle for how cheap can we get corn from farmers. When farmers are holding old crop, and another crop coming in, it seems more like a battle of who can hold out the longest. Will the grain trade get a bunch of cheaper than expected corn or will farmers be able to hold out. When bob says these things how is it supposed to sit with producers. Why does it seem like every market advisor is a genius all of a sudden. Because they knew prices would go lower, because nobody priced enough at fair prices earlier. I feel like 2007 the cbot lost all of their f----en marbles and now we have to pay for it as producers. Dont act like some genius to me a producer when you created the problem of totally high prices, followed by everybody jumping on producers backs for quadrupling our expenses. Had we averaged $4.00to 4.50 dollar corn we all would have been better off. Set a mandatory price and junk the cbot.

Friday, September 04, 2009 10:46 PM by: Anonymous
By the way, if you think corn is too cheap, just keep buying more...that will show 'em!

Friday, September 04, 2009 10:45 PM by: Anonymous
Anyone who didn't sell $5 corn or higher was greedy...don't make up b.s. excuses. Now it is someone else's fault. Why don't you just go work for GM and wonder why your business model failed. This is why there are less farmers every year.

Friday, September 04, 2009 3:39 PM by: Anonymous
I am comming up with a $2.40-$2.60 price for corn. Any comments on this.

Friday, September 04, 2009 10:12 AM by: Anonymous
So, JR, what do you want, a medal or a chest to pin it in ? So you bought a year's worth of corn, big deal. How can you possibly make a statement wondering how corn farmers think ? They made decisions based on their business beliefs and so do you. You wouldn't be singing this tune had the economy not tanked. You'd be paying 5 dollars plus for corn and you will again. Anybody can look back and say what should have happened, the trick is to able to look forward and do the same. If you paid 7 dollars for corn and state that it's not profitable, I guess your forward vision wasn't any better than the corn farmers you're cackling about now. If you mind your own, you'll be busy enough that you won't have to worry about anyone else.

Friday, September 04, 2009 7:06 AM by: Anonymous
Just wait til CAP AND TRADE hits us.This will get out of control.

Friday, September 04, 2009 6:20 AM by: JR
I don't understand how some corn farmers think. As a dairy farmers and cattle feeder I have paid as much as $7.00 for corn. We all know that there is no profit left when feeding $7.00 corn. My neighbors bought new 16 and 24 row corn planters and booked potash at $900.00 per ton because they thought corn was going to stay high. Well now things are different, I am raising 150 percent of my feed needs plus buying a years supply of corn ahead. Instead of $300.00 per bag seed corn, I rotated my alfalfa fields and bought $125 seed corn. The big dairies and pig guys are also cutting back. We can't afford $5.00 corn and corn farmers can't afford $3.00 corn. This is a hell of a mess.

Friday, September 04, 2009 1:30 AM by: Anonymous
Hey Guys it might be time to go long the market,,,reason number 1..Bob is so bearish that he is picking on the producers marketing decisions. 2,GDUs are very short. 3,USDA says corn demand will pick up. 4,China wants Soybeans they have said that out loud. 5,USA has less Beans on hand that USDA will admit to. 6, South America has no Beans. 7, Ethanol is getting its legs back. 8,Pigs and Cattle eat corn always have always will. 9,Our Country is recovering. 10,I don't care what Bob says...I'll do it my way.

Friday, September 04, 2009 12:58 AM by: cobber
First, We have to realize how powerfull we are when enough of us farmers get together. Obviously, we will never all agree, and "unions" don't work:ie NFO. What we have to understand is that we don't need 100% of us to agree. Just think if we could just get 20-30 million acres nation wide to "strike". Look what just 1-2 million acre difference in USDA's # in corn or beans does to the market. Have you ever seen the Disney movie ANTS? The ants were the slaves(famers) to the grasshoppers(us govt. ADM, Cargill, Harvest States). The ants did all the work, collected the harvest of seeds just to have the grasshoppers come in and take it all, leaving just enough seeds for the ants to survive 'tiil the next year when they did it all over again. Then when the ants realized that by sheer numbers they could tell the grasshoppers to shove it, well everything changed. We need to be those ants and finally take a stand. WE do the work, WE own the land, We should decide weather we will continue to GIVE away the fruits of our labor and risks we take, or wake up and realize we hold the cards, Not them. If enough of us take the chance they are at OUR mercy, Not the other way around.

Friday, September 04, 2009 12:36 AM by: Anonymous
I agree with last comments. How do we do it?

Friday, September 04, 2009 12:29 AM by: cobber
Before anyone orders seed or applies fertilizer this fall,ponder this. First buy July 2010 corn and bean futures. Second lets all take the year, (10) off, and not plant one acre. If we could start this movement, and take 40-50% of the U.S. acres out of production for 1 yaer we could literally name our price for corn and bean for years to come. By the way, those July 10 futures we buy now would more than cover all are expenses for next year. Hell, we could maybe retire just off those returns. Sound interesting?? I know I am.

Friday, September 04, 2009 12:27 AM by: Anonymous
With the size of farmers now days, I feel if they dont see a price they like they wont sell, because a lot of them are so financially sound. Not all but a lot.

Friday, September 04, 2009 12:07 AM by: Anonymous
How can anyone believe anyone? In a few short years the farmer will have their day and America will have to subdue to their greedy nature. Wait a minute, this happen already. Funds (one or two brokers) bought the ***** out of corn and beans and then sold them off like it was nothing. They made their millions at the hand of the BACK OF THE NATION, ( the AMERICAN FARMER). Well I say let them play the Board and the farmers finally unite in one. The Farmers Union didn't work in the 80's, but lets see what happens when farmers Unionize in this period of assfu^&*(g. If America likes to eat, drive, play, etc and then complain that everything cost so much, well shut up and pay for it. How and what do you think the farmer does? We can't wake up the next morning and go to work and think about the weekend and the paycheck we did nothing for! We the farmer work for a living and folks in town just work (if you want to call it that) When I go out and somebody asks me what I do, "Im a professional gambler, I break even 2 out of 3 years and survive 3 out of 5." I am only one farmer, but its time WE stop being at the mercy of the Chicago Board of Crooks!

Thursday, September 03, 2009 11:36 PM by: Anonymous
Mr. you sound angry with the farmer.Chil!!!

Thursday, September 03, 2009 11:35 PM by: Anonymous
It is pretty simple. Most sat a target price that was at over slightly above break even. For most that target price never materialized. It is hard to keep selling our products below the price of production. If you are in an area where the basis is huge like it is here (-60 on new crop corn and -56 on beans) it is even more of a challenge to hit break even. Were these farmers being stupid or greedy like 8 O Clock suggested? No they were just hoping to cover their expenses. The reason they missed the boat was because the boat hit an iceberg and sank after the June 30th USDA report and never made it to the port. 8 O clock likes to use hind site so the real answer to this low market is that we should not have planted any corn and then we would not have to worry about frost, super wet corn that needs drying, harvesting at Christmas time and marketing.

Thursday, September 03, 2009 11:31 PM by: Anonymous
There is no large crop in my area. 8 tenths of rain since july 20. Will be lucky to get 150 corn and 35 beans.

Thursday, September 03, 2009 11:18 PM by: Anonymous
So most farmers haven't sold...I'm sure they have a much better idea what the total U.S. planted acreage number is, that makes sense

Thursday, September 03, 2009 10:57 PM by: Anonymous
Please 8:00pm! Most FARM FAMILIES do a good job at their marketing. I would just say that USDA probably over stated corn acres by 1.5 ml. Most farmers suspect this to be the case. Thank you Mr. Utterback for your insight and great info.

Thursday, September 03, 2009 8:00 PM by: Anonymous
It's obvious the farmer is just holding on and hoping his prices go higher. Farmers missed the boat on corn prices and they will wait until beans get cheap before they finally sell...they'll never let you down!

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