Weather Services International, a global weather information source, expects December to February to be cooler-than-average in the eastern and south-central U.S., with above-normal temperatures common across the western and north-central U.S. 

 

"The combination of the current El Nino event, abundant Eurasian snow cover, and a favorable pattern of ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean suggest that this winter will be a cold one in the eastern U.S., especially after the New Year," says Todd Crawford, WSI seasonal forecaster. 

 

"There are even indications that a significant pattern change will occur in late November and that December may be colder than we are currently forecasting.  Based upon our forecast and our population-weighting algorithms, we expect total gas and electricity demand to be of similar magnitude to last year's cold winter." 

 

 

 

 

The warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and North Central should help lower gas demand, says Paul Flemming of Energy Security Analysis, Inc.

 

“Lower electrical loads and gas demand for heating in much of the northern regions will result in lower-than-normal gas demand in these regions. Delivered gas prices in the West should firm as temperatures in the region swing from above-normal in November to below-normal in December," he says.  

 

In January, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Northeast	colder than normal
Southeast	colder than normal
North Central	warmer than normal
South Central	colder than normal
Northwest	warmer than normal
Southwest	warmer than normal

 

 

“With record natural gas inventories entering the winter, the expected colder-than-normal January in the Consuming East could help to balance supply by lowering inventories at the end of the heating season,” Flemming says. “High fuel oil prices will discourage switching away from gas in the power sector except when delivered basis prices are very high in congested areas such as in New York or New England. The effect of this large fuel-oil-to-gas spread is supportive of local gas demand (particularly in the Northeast) and delivered gas prices.”
 

In February, WSI forecasts:

Northeast	colder than normal
Southeast	colder than normal
North Central	warmer than normal
South Central	colder than normal
Northwest	warmer than normal
Southwest	warmer than normal

                      

In February, WSI is forecasting significantly colder-than-normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S. and Texas.

 

“These regions represent a large portion of the country's gas demand, and overall demand could be significantly higher than normal for a second month in a row. Combined with higher loads in the power sector, gas demand in February could be bullish for prices despite adequate inventories,” Flemming says. “Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Western states are not likely to result in a complete offset to the higher gas demand in the East. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Western regions should moderate both gas and power prices."