Gulke's Latest Supply/Demand Estimates
8/4/2009
The following information is bonus material from Top Producer. It corresponds with the “Market Strategy" column by Jerry Gulke. Hedge Your Operating Credit” by Linda Smith. You can find the article on page 20 in the Summer 2009 issue.
| |
USDA |
SMS1 |
SMS2 |
| Planted acres (mil) |
87 |
25 |
25 |
| Harv. acres (mil) |
80.1 |
78.4 |
78.4 |
| Yield (bu./acre) |
153.4 |
153.4 |
156.5 |
| Carrin (Sept. 1) |
1,770 |
1,770 |
1,820 |
| Production |
2,291 |
12,021 |
12,264 |
| Imports |
15 |
15 |
15 |
| Total supply |
14,076 |
13,806 |
14,099 |
| Feed & resid. |
5,200 |
5,200 |
5,200 |
| Food/seed/ind. |
5,375 |
5,375 |
5,378.5 |
| Ethanol fuel |
4,100 |
4,100 |
4,100 |
| Dom. use |
10,575 |
10,575 |
10,575 |
| Exports |
1,950 |
1,950 |
1,900 |
| Total use |
15,525 |
12,525 |
12,475 |
| Carryout (Aug. 30) |
1,551 |
1,281 |
1,624 |
| Stocks/use |
12.4% |
10.2% |
13.0% |
| Farm price |
3.35-4.15 |
3.35-4.15 |
3.30 |
SMS1 is using SMS acreage but USDA’s July yield. SMS2 is using SMS acreage but better yield, warranted by weather so far and assuming no early frost.
