USFR Weekly Recap - November 7-8, 2009
11/7/2009
THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
Episode #1891
November 7-8, 2009
John’s Hello: WE SEEM TO BE STUCK IN SOME KIND OF GOOD-MONTH-BAD-MONTH PATTERN, I THINK. PRECISELY WHEN I TURNED MY CALENDAR TO NOVEMBER LAST SUNDAY, I AWOKE TO THE TYPE OF FALL HARVEST WEATHER I HAD BEEN HOPING FOR ALL SEASON. MORE AMAZINGLY IT CONTINUES TO DATE. FARMERS TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT WEATHER, I KNOW, BUT LIKE MANY OTHER OCCUPATIONS FROM TOURISM TO CONSTRUCTION WEATHER IS A MAJOR DECIDING FACTOR IS OUR ECONOMIC RESULTS. BUT EVEN MORE REMARKABLE TO ME IS HOW IT AFFECTS OUR MOODS AND OUTLOOK. NEIGHBORS WHO WERE HOPELESSLY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FINISHING BY CHRISTMAS ARE NUDGING UP THEIR EXPECTATIONS. LOWER HUIMIDITY AND TYPCIAL FALL WINDS HAVE ENCOURAGED MODEST, BUT LONG-AWAITED DRYDOWN IN CROPS. WE MIGHT JUST MAKE IT AFTER ALL.
Harvest Delays: THE PACE OF THE 2009 HARVEST SEASON CERTAINLY PICKED UP ACROSS MUCH OF FARM COUNTRY THIS WEEK, BUT THE RACE TO PLAY CATCH-UP IS FAR FROM OVER. AS OF THE END OF LAST WEEKEND, THE AG DEPARTMENT REPORTS 25-PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CORN CROP AND 51-PERCENT OF THE SOYBEAN CROP HAD BEEN HARVESTED...BOTH WELL BEHIND THE AVERAGE PACE. THINGS AREN'T MUCH BETTER IN THE COTTON BELT WHERE HARVEST WAS PEGGED AT LESS THAN 30-PERCENT COMPLETE...ALSO WELL BEHIND NORMAL.
South Dakota delays: EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE WERE IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO WITNESS A DELAYED HARVEST FIRST-HAND. AS OF MONDAY, ONLY 12-PERCENT OF THE CORN IS HARVESTED. THAT'S 43 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE. JUST LIKE MOST FARMERS IN THE CORNBELT, N-C-G-A PRESIDENT DARRIN IHNEN IS BEHIND IN HIS HARVEST. THE SOYBEAN HARVEST IS ALSO BEHIND IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HALF OF THE SOY FIELDS ARE HARVESTED, BUT BY NOW FARMERS IN THE STATE ARE USUALLY WRAPPING UP.
Marketing Rally: NO DOUBT THIS DELAYED HARVEST SEASON WILL IMPACT THE MARKETS FOR MONTHS TO COME...WITH THAT IN MIND, I'D LIKE TO EXTEND A PERSONAL INVITATION FOR YOU TO JOIN US AT "MARKETING RALLY 2009". FEATURING MORE THAN A DOZEN OF OUR MOST POPULAR ANALYSTS - THE EVENT IS SET FOR DECEMBER 3RD AND 4TH AT THE PALMER HOUSE HOTEL IN CHICAGO. YOU WILL BE ABLE TO SPEND ONE-ON-ONE TIME WITH THE MANY ANALYSTS, AND TAKE PART IN THE BIGGEST ROUND-TABLE TAPING WE'VE EVER ASSEMBLED. FOR ALL THE DETAILS - HEAD ONLINE TO "MARKETING-RALLY-DOT-COM".
Marketing roundtable guests: Jim Bower & Richard Brock
John’s World: WINTER IS FARMER MEETING SEASON. I KNOW BECAUSE I ATTEND MANY MYSELF. AND WHILE THERE IS MORE THAN A LITTLE ATTENDANCE ANXIETY ON THE PART OF MEETING PLANNERS ABOUT THOSE EARLY CONFERNCES BEGINNING SOON, PRODUCERS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GATHER TO LEARN, DECISE, AND ABOVE ALL SHARE INFORMATION. SOME SCIENTISTS SPECULATE THAT SPEECH EVOLVED SO THAT EARLY MAN COULD GOSSIP - AND DON'T KID YOURSELF, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT FARMERS DO AT SUCH GATHERINGS. THE EXCHANGE OF THE MINUTAE OF EXISTENCE ALONG WITH PERSONAL OPINIONS AND SPECULATION ABOUT THE FUTURE HELPS TO KEEP A SENSE OF COMMUNITY ALIVE. FOR THE DECREASING POPULATION OF FARMERS, GETTING TO ONE OF THESE MEETINGS TO SEE FELLOW PROFESSIONALS CAN BE BOTH UPLIFTING AND EDIFYING. IT HELPS US TO WIDEN OUR PERSPECTIVES AND CONFRONT NEW IDEAS AND ATTITUDES. BEST OF ALL, FOR MANY OF US IT MAKES OUR OWN FARM LOOK MUCH BETTER WHEN WE RETURN. I THINK THE VALUE OF FARMER MEETINGS - THE LARGER THE BETTER - IS ESCALATING. AS OUR INDUSTRY ADAPTS, THIS ONCE-A-YEAR COMMUNION CAN DO MUCH FOR OUR BUSINESS AND OUR SPIRITS. WHILE I KNOW, MOST ARE WEEKS AWAY FROM FINISHING, DON'T LET POST-HARVEST SHUTDOWN ROB YOU OF THE CHANCE TO RENEW YOUR TIES TO FELLOW FARMERS AT YOUR FAVORITE MEETING.
USFR-2nd half
John’s Hello: LOST IN ALL THE ALARM ABOUT THE ADMITTEDLY LARGE PROBLEMS FACING OUR NATION AND ESPECIALLY OUR ECONOMY ARE THE REMINDERS OF PROGRESS BEING MADE ON SEVERAL FRONTS. FROM LEGISLATIVE EFFORTS TO START TACKLING CONCERNS OVER ANIMAL WELFARE TO METHODICAL RESEARCH TO EXPLOIT NEW REALMS OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE, EVERY DAY PEOPLE HERE AND AROUND THE WORLD PUSH US ALL FORWARD A LITTLE BIT. MOREOVER, WE ARE MAKING ALL THESE ADVANCES MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN EVER BEFORE. U-S MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SET AN ALL TIME HIGH THIS WEEK, FOR JUST ONE EXAMPLE. WE HAVE COME TO EXPECT THIS MARCH OF PROGRESS AS NORMAL, BUT ACTUALLY ALL THESE ACHIEVEMENTS RESULT FROM VERY HARD WORK BY VERY MANY PEOPLE.
Ohio Issue 2: BY A VOTE OF NEARLY TWO-TO-ONE, OHIO VOTERS APPROVED A MEASURE THIS WEEK THAT WILL CREATE A LIVESTOCK CARE STANDARDS BOARD. "ISSUE TWO" WITH 64-PERCENT OF THE VOTE...LEGISLATION DESIGNED TO PREVENT ANIMAL-RIGHTS GROUPS FROM DICTATING HOW FOOD IS PRODUCED IN THE BUCKEYE STATE. THE BOARD WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING AND OVERSEEING GUIDELINES FOR THE CARE OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY. THE HUMANE SOCIETY SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EFFORTS TO BAN CAGES FOR HENS AND SWINE GESTATION CRATES IN THE STATE.
Corn Cob Harvest: FOR GENERATIONS, FIELD WASTE FROM HARVESTING CORN JUST SHOT-OUT THE BACK OF THE COMBINE...BUT ONE OF THE LARGEST ETHANOL COMPANIES IN THE U-S IS BETTING CORN STOVER CAN BE THE NEXT PHASE OF ETHANOL PRODUCTION. THE POET ENERGY COMPANY INVITED EQUIPMENT MAKERS TO BRING IN THEIR CORN-COB HARVESTING EQUIPMENT TO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE COBS ARE PART OF THE NEXT WAVE OF ETHANOL, USING CELLULOSIC MATERIALS LIKE CORN COBS, STOVER AND FOREST WASTE. THIS WOULD REQUIRE FARMERS TO COLLECT THE MATERIAL DURING HARVEST. POET IS CHANGING ONE OF ITS CORN ETHANOL PLANTS IN NORTHWEST IOWA INTO A PLANT THAT CAN ALSO MAKE FUEL FROM CORN COBS. THEY PLAN TO HAVE IT OPERATIONAL IN 2011.
Swine Genome: AFTER A 20 YEAR EFFORT, SCIENTISTS ARE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE GENETIC MAKE-UP OF SWINE. ACCORDING TO THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, A TEAM OF INTERNATIONAL RESARCHERS HAVE PRODUCED THE FIRST DRAFT OF THE GENOME OF A DOMESTICATED PIG. WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? RESEARCHERS SAY IT WILL ALLOW THEM TO PINPOINT GENES THAT ARE USEFUL IN PORK PRODUCTION. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO DISEASES THAT AFFLICT PIGS... AND SOMETIMES HUMANS.
Michigan Cider: WHAT'S A TRIP TO THE FARM STAND OR AN APPLE ORCHARD IN THE FALL IF YOU DON'T GET YOURSELF SOME FRESH-SQUEEZED APPLE CIDER? THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN MICHIGAN, ONE OF THE TOP APPLE PRODUCING STATES IN THE NATION. WITH STUGGLES IN THE STATE'S NUMBER ONE INDUSTRY - AUTOS - APPLE GROWERS SAY IT'S EVEN MORE IMPORTANT TO PROTECT OTHER IMPORTANT SECTORS LIKE AGRICULTURE. PART OF THAT PROTECTION INCLUDES INSURING THE SAFETY OF THEIR PRODUCTS, INCLUDING CIDER. TO HELP INSURE THE SAFETY OF CONSUMERS, MICHIGAN STATE EXTENSION, THE DEPARTMENT OF AG AND THE MICHIGAN APPLE INDUSTRY CREATED A CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR CIDER PRODUCERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONLINE WEBINARS, GO TO MICHIGAN APPLE ASSOCIATION-DOT-COM.
The Fruit Guys: IF YOU HAD FRESH FRUIT AVAILABLE AT WORK EVERYDAY, WOULD YOU BE LESS LIKELY TO EAT SOMETHING FROM A VENDING MACHINE? THAT'S THE CONCEPT DRIVING AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH IN CALIFORNIA. "THE FRUIT GUYS" BUY THE FRESHEST FRUIT FROM LOCAL GROWERS, PACK IT UP, AND DELIVER THE HEALTHY CHOICES TO OFFICE BUILDINGS. TRACEY SELLERS FROM "CALIFORNIA COUNTRY" HAS THEIR STORY.
Baxter Black: MANY OF YOU KNOW BAXTER BLACK AS A HUMORIST, POET OR RANCHER. BUT HE'S ALSO A TRAINED VETERINARIAN. AND THAT MEANS, ON OCCASION, HE'LL GET A CALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT FOR AN EMERGENCY...
Tractor Tales: TRACTOR TALES COMES TO US THIS WEEK FROM THE FARM SCIENCE REVIEW IN OHIO...THERE WE MET A COLLECTOR WHO SHOWED OFF HIS 1956 FERGUSON-35. IN 1953 MASSEY BOUGHT FERGUSON AND BECAME THE NUMBER-TWO TRACTOR SELLER BEHIND INTERNATIONAL HARVESTER...
Church Salute: THIS MORNING WE ARE HAPPY TO SALUTE THE CLIFTON HILL BAPTIST CHURCH IN CLIFTON HILL, KENTUCKY AS THEY MARK THEIR 150TH ANNIVERSARY THIS YEAR. ORIGINALLY KNOWN AS DARKS PRAIRIE BAPTIST, THEIR FIRST CHURCH HOME WAS BUILT IN 1860, AND REPLACED IN 1868. THE NAME WAS CHANGED IN 1877. THE PRESENT BUILDING WAS DEDICATED IN 1911. WE THANK ANN FOSTER FOR SENDING US THE INFORMATION. ST JOHN'S CHURCH IN THE ANGLICAN COMMUNION IS OUR SECOND SALUTE THIS WEEKEND. LOCATED TWO MILES WEST OF PREEMPTION, ILLINOIS, THE CHURCH WAS FOUNDED BY PROTESTANT IRISHMEN. ALTHOUGH EARLY RECORDS HAVE BEEN LOST TO FIRE, SOME FAMILIES HAVE A SIX-GENERATION HISTORY WITH THE CONGREGATION. THE FIRST CHURCH WAS CONTRUCTED IN 1855 BUT WAS DESTROYED BY A TORNADO AND REBUILT IN 1869. THAT CHURCH WAS REPLACED IN 1919. THE BELL FROM THE FIRST CHURCH IS STILL RUNG EVERY SUNDAY. OR THANKS TO PAUL BROOKS FOR THE HISTORY AND PHOTOS.
USFR Mailbag: TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAIL BAG... GARY VITS FROM DECATUR, ILLINOIS IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT OUR MARKET EXPERTS: "IF ALL THOSE BLOW HARDS HAD ALL THE ANSWERS THEY WOULD BE SO WEALTHY FROM THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE THEY WOULD BE MARLIN FISHING IN MIAMI AND RETIRED." GARY, THIS RAP ON MARKET ADVISORS HAS BEEN AROUND MY ENTIRE CAREER, AND IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE LOGIC, EXCEPT TO SUGGEST TWO THINGS. FIRST, MAYBE THERE ARE EXPERTS WHO DID JUST WHAT YOU SUGGEST AND ARE FISHING OFF FLORIDA RIGHT NOW. HOW WOULD WE KNOW? ODDLY ENOUGH, THE RECESSION CAUSED A FLURRY OF RESEARCH INTO THIS IDEA AND DISCOVERED THAT MOST SUPER-SUCCESSFUL TRADERS WERE SIMPLY ON A VERY LONG LUCKY STREAK. BUT THE BETTER ANSWER TO YOUR CRITICISM MIGHT BE WHY DO SO MANY OF US WANT TO HEAR THEIR OPINIONS EVEN THOUGH WE DOUBT ANALYST'S ABILITY TO SEE THE FUTURE? OUR MARKET ROUNDTABLES ARE VERY POPULAR AND FARMERS AND OTHERS SPEND SERIOUS MONEY ACQUIRING THEIR ADVICE. HUMANS ARE FASCINATED WITH TRYING TO FORESEE FUTURE EVENTS, AND ALL OF US SPEND TIME MAKING OUR OWN PREDICTIONS. REGARDLESS OF THEIR ACCURACY, THE BENEFIT OF THIS PONDERING IS TAKING ACTION TO CAPITALIZE ON WHAT WE THINK MIGHT HAPPEN. THIS IS WHERE MARKET ADVISORS CAN HELP - BY PROMPTING US TO ACTION - ANY ACTION. AS FOR ME, I BELIEVE IN RESEARCH THAT HAS SHOWN IT IS REALLY, REALLY HARD TO CONSISTENTLY BE ABOVE THE MARKET AVERAGE, AND SO I SETTLE FOR AUTOMATIC SALES OVER THE MARKET YEAR. IT'S NOT EXCITING, BUT IT KEEPS MY EXPECTATIONS IN LINE.
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