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AgDay Daily Recap -July 7, 2014

July 7, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 7, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY, A NEW ARREST IN A CASE INVOLVING U.S. SEED COMPANIES AND ALLEGED EFFORTS TO STEAL HIGH VALUE GENTICS… PLUS, RECORD SOYBEAN ACRES…ESPCIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WITH GRAIN PRICES TRENDING LOWER...HOW FAR IN THE FUTURE SHOULD FARMERS BE WATCHING. MACHINERY PETE JOINS US WITH TRENDS FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. AND MEET A NORTH DAKOTA MAN KNOWN AS THE DINOSAUR COWBOY. AGDAY…BROUGHT TO YOU CHEVY SILVERDO-THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.

SOYBEANS ACRES:

GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. U-S FARMERS PLANTED A RECORD NUMBER OF SOYBEAN ACRES THIS YEAR. WHERE DO THOSE ACRES COME FROM? AND WHAT'S THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK. THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
SOYBEANS ACRES BOWER:
I THINK BACK IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY A LOT OF THOSE PRODUCERS LOOKED AT THE PRICE OF SOYBEANS THEY LOOKED AT THE PRICE OF CORN AND THEY SAID YOU KNOW WHAT BASED UPON THE INPUT COSTS LETS PLANT A FEW MORE SOYBEANS THIS YEAR AND THEN PSYCHOLOGICALLY THAT BEAN MARKET HAD BEEN SO DYNAMIC YOU KNOW AROUND 15 16 DOLLARS FOR A LONG TIME I THINK PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT TOLD PRODUCERS TO PLANT MORE SOYBEANS SO FINANCIALLY PSYCHOLOGICALLY AND WEATHER WISE I THINK THE MARKET DID ITS JOB IT BOUGHT MORE BEAN ACRES I THINK THE GOVERNMENT PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON THE SOYBEAN ACREAGE NUMBER.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
THE LATEST U-S DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 34% OF THE NATION REMAINS IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE. THAT COMPARES TO 35% THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND 44% LAST YEAR.

MUCH OF THE NATION - OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA - SAW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN RECENT WEEKS. ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDWEST, AS WE'VE BEEN REPORTING SOME OF THOSE LOCAL STORMS BROUGHT 3-TO-SIX INCHES OF RAIN. THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALL RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS. ONE OF THE AUTHORS OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR SAYS WHEN EL NINO ARRIVES THIS FALL…THE PARCHED WEST IS LIKELY TO GET RELIEF.

SEED HEIST:
THANKS MIKE. WE HAVE AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO A STORY WE BEGAN REPORTING LATE LAST YEAR.THE SISTER OF A CHINESE NATIONAL CURRENTLY AWAITING TRAIL FOR CONSPIRACY TO STEAL TRADE SECRETS FROM SEVERAL U.S. SEED COMPANIES HAS HERSELF NOW BEEN ARRESTED.
TEASE:
LAST WEEK WAS PRETTY ROUGH ON GRAIN PRICES…NEXT IN ANALYSIS - SOME STRATEGIES TO DEAL WITH IT. ALSO, MEET A MONTANA COWBOY WHO CAN WRANGLE AN ANGUS - AND A T-REX? PLUS MACHINERY PETE
ANALYSIS INTRO:
CLINTON, A ROUGH WEEK IN GRAINS, FOLLOWING USDA'S LATEST REPORTS. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? IN ANALYSIS THIS MORNING, NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN…JOINS US TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE AND STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH IT…TYNE.
ANALYSIS:
WE'RE HERE NOW WITH ANGIE MCGUIRE OF CITIZENS WELL MONDAY WE HAD OUR GRAIN STOCKS REPORT WE HAD ACREAGE REPORT AND NOT VERY FRIENDLY FOR SOYBEANS YOU KNOW WE'VE A LOT OF FARMERS HAVE HEARD THE WARNING YOU NEED TO FORWARD CONTRACT YOU NEED TO START SELLING YOU NEED TO START HEDGING WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE BASED ON THIS REPORT MOVING FORWARD LETS EVEN LOOK PAST 2014 ANGIE. THE FURTHER ON I THINK NOW WE KNOW WHAT A GOOD PRICE IS PERHAPS WE FOUND A NEW NORMAL YOU KNOW OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS IT'S BEEN ONE OF THOSE WHERE IT'S ALMOST PUNISHED YOU TO LOOK AHEAD FORWARD CONTRACT AND THE ONE THING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON HERE RECENTLY IS BEEN KNOWING YOUR COST OF PRODUCTION KNOWING WHAT YOU NEED TO MAKE IN ORDER TO HAVE A DECENT MARGIN AND GOING FORWARD FROM THERE IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY TO START LOOKING AT YOUR EXPECTED ANTICIPATED INPUT COSTS IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT IS THERE SOME LAND PERHAPS THAT YOUR RENTING THAT REALLY DOESN'T PENCIL OUT YOU KNOW IT REALLY COMES DOWN TO IT IS OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS WE REALLY HAVEN'T LOOK AT THE COST OF LAND AND WHAT IT IS DOES TO OUR OVERALL BOTTOM LINE SO NOW IS THE TIME YOU KNOW NOT TO PANIC IS THE MAIN THING I DON'T' WANT TO SEE EVERYONE GO OUT AND DUMP EVERYTHING BECAUSE THE WORLDS OVER THAT'S NOT THE CASE BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS NOW IS REALLY TIME TO TIGHTEN YOUR BELT AND TO LOOK OUT FURTHER IF THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES IF YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN MAKE MONEY AT 4.50 CORN AND YOU SEE IT ON THE BOARD AND 2015 OR 2016 IT DOESN'T HURT TO LOOK AT LOCKING SOME IN IT DOESN'T LOOK TO IT DOESN'T HURT TO LOOK AT OPENING A HEDGE ACCOUNT OF SOME SORT OR WORKING WITH SOMEONE THAT YOU TRUST AND BASICALLY FOCUS ON THE COST AND WHAT YOUR EXPECTED INPUTS ARE AND MAKE SURE THAT YOUR PLANNING AHEAD ACCORDINGLY. WELL ANGIE YOU TALK ABOUT THE NEW NORMAL AND I KNOW EVERY YOU KNOW DIFFERENT PRICES WORK FOR DIFFERENT FARMS BASED ON INPUTS AND TOTAL COST BUT WHAT WOULD YOU SAY WOULD BE A GOOD PRICE MOVING FORWARD IF WE'RE IN THIS NEW NORM FOR CORN WHAT SHOULD YOU REALLY BE TARGETING A RANGE AND FOR NEW CROP BEANS WHAT SHOULD WE BE TARGETING. ANYTHING IN CORN IN MY OPINION ABOVE 4.50 TO 5 DOLLARS REALLY SEEMS ON THE BOARD SEEMS TO BE A GOOD NUMBER BEAN WISE 12 OF COURSE BUT WE MAY HAVE MISSED THAT BOAT FOR A WHILE SO ANYTHING ABOVE 11.50 ISN'T A BAD NUMBER OF COURSE IT ALL COMES DOWN TO WHERE YOU'RE AT FROM A BOTTOM LINE STAND POINT OVERALL. AND ANGIE I KNOW FOR SOME PEOPLE THIS IS HARD TO HEAR SO ANY OTHER ADVICE TO MAKE THIS A LITTLE BIT EASIER MOVING FORWARD. TAKE DEEP BREATHS FIRST OF ALL THE MARKET REACTION IS ALWAYS ONE THAT'S SWIFT WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF ISSUES THAT ARE DEVELOPING WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY UNTIL THE CROP IS PRODUCED AND IN THE BIN THE WEATHERS BEEN CRAZY WE HAVE A LOT OF THINGS THAT COULD REALLY KIND OF TURN THIS MARKET AROUND LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES WE ARE GOING TO SEE AN ENCOURAGEMENT OF DEMAND WE ARE REBUILDING HERDS AND LIVESTOCK SO JUST TAKE A DEEP BREATH I HATE WHEN PEOPLE SAY SHOULD I PANIC SELL NEVER PANIC SELL JUST GO WITH IT. WE WILL SURVIVE RIGHT ANGIE. YES WE WILL. THANK YOU SO MUCH. WELL DON'T GO ANYWHERE WE HAVE MUCH MORE AGDAY TO COME SO PLEASE STAY WITH US.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY MIKE I HOPE YOU HAD A NICE FOURTH OF JULY AND YOU..YEAH…PRETTY NICE WEATHER REALLY. YOU KNOW WHAT I'VE NOTICED IS IT HASN'T GOTTEN REALLY HOT ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS YEAR. NO AND A LOT OF THAT IS BECAUSE OF THE RAINS THAT WE'VE HAD. EVEN DOWN INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, ITS TOUGH TO HEAT THINGS UP WHEN THE GROUND IS WET BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO EVAPORATE THE MOISTURE FIRST. SO THAT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS THAT GOES HAND IN HAND OF COURSE DROUGHT BREEDS HEAT BECAUSE THERE'S NO MOISTURE IN THE GROUND WHAT SO EVER. SO THOSE TWO GO HAND IN HAND AS WELL HUGE RIDGE OUT TO THE WEST… TROUGH STILL ALONG THE EAST COAST ALTHOUGH ARTHUR IS STILL LONG GONE MOVING UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC THE REMNANTS ANYWAY SO THE TROUGH IS STILL KEEPING THINGS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL PRETTY WARM AND MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT LIKE CLINTON SAID...IN A LOT OF CASES IT’S BEEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN AREAS LIKE THE TENNESEE VALLEY BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH IT’S PRETTY HOT, IT IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN YOU TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. YOU CAN SEE THE TROUGH KIND OF DIGS IN AGAIN TO THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST THEN OUR COMPUTER MODEL BY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING PRETTY MUCH A RIDGE COAST TO COAST WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A WEAKNESS THERE IN NORTH DAKOTA. SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THAT. THAT COULD START TO BRING IN SOME HEAT ALTHOUGH AGAIN WITH ALL OF THE WET GROUND IN MANY PLACES IT WOULD BE A TAMPED DOWN HEAT NOT EXCESSIVE. SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL WATCH AS WE HEAD THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALL THE WAY THROUGH TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL FROM FAR NORTH FLORIDA EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BASICALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION THIS COMING WEEK WE'RE LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL FROM THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ALL THE WAY TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND UP AND DOWN THE WEST COAST. WE ARE TAKING THIS ABOVE NORMAL AREA BACK INTO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND YOU MAY START TO SEE SOME INLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN PLACES…ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR CORNER REGION AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…AS FAR AS THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES…PRETTY MUCH VERY SIMILAR LOOKING MAP HERE…GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO BELOW NORMAL…ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GULF COAST AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR WESTERN STATES… AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS WE HAVE A STRIP UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ROCKIES ABOVE NORMAL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEST COAST BELOW NORMAL FOR EASTERN TEXAS ON UP INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST…MOST OF THE CORN BELT THOUGH WE'RE GOING PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS…WHICH ACTUALLY WILL ALLOW SOME OF YOU TO START TO DRY OUT…THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIST OF ALL FOR REDDING CALIFORNIA SUNSHINE WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110. HASTING NEBRASKA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY…HOT AND HUMID HIGH AROUND 90 AND PETERSBURG VIRGINIA PARTLY SUNNY VERY HOT AND HUMID HIGH OF 99.
MACHINERY PETE:
THANKS, GREG. GREAT INFO AS ALWAYS .YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DEALS BY FOLLOWING PETE ON TWITTER OR LIKING HIM ON FACEBOOK. HE'S ALSO FEATURED EVERY WEEK ON AGRITALK AND AGWEB DOT COM.
ITC DINOSAUR COWBOY:
MONTANA IS KNOWN BY MANY AS "CATTLE COUNTRY", BUT THE STATE IS ALSO A 'PALEONTOLOGIST'S PARADISE.' THE TERRAIN OF THE TREASURE STATE ACCOMMODATES ARCHAEOLOGY, THE LIVESTOCK BUSINESS, AND "THE DINOSAUR COWBOY."CLIFF NAYLOR FROM AFFILILATE KFYR REPORTS…
ITC TAG:
 THE FIRST TYRANNOSAURUS REX EVER DISCOVERED IN AMERICA WAS FOUND IN THE HELL CREEK FORMATION IN 1902 AND THE LARGEST T-REX SKULL EVER UNEARTHED WAS ALSO FOUND IN EASTERN MONTANA....FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY IS NEXT.
RFD:
MONDAY ON AGDAY - A NEW WRINKLE IN A SEED ESPIONAGE CASE WITH CHINA. SOME STRATEGIES TO DEAL WITH RECENT ROUGH RIDE IN THE GRAIN MARKETS. PLUS MACHINERY PETE ON THE HOTTEST SEGMENT OF THE TRACTOR MARKET… JOIN US 8 EASTERN ON RFD.

STATION PROMO:

TUESDAY ON AGDAY - HAVE YOU PAID FOR HAY LATELY? WE'LL ANALYZE THE MARKET AND SEE WHERE IT'S HEADED. PLUS THE LATEST NEWS FROM THE DAIRY INDUSTRY…JOIN US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.
 
 

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