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Keep Your Eye on the Stocks

September 27, 2012
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
USDA   pile of corn

Market experts weigh in on what surprises and market moves could follow tomorrow’s USDA reports.

USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday.

Allendale’s Rich Nelson says throughout the year, USDA and the entire grain trade is always estimating "end of the marketing year" ending stock numbers. "The end of the old crop year was just on Aug. 31. Friday’s quarterly stocks report is the report to finally solve this old crop stocks question."

Grain Hedge’s Brock Schimbeno provides the following estimates for tomorrow’s reports.


Quarterly Grain Stocks projections

  • Corn: 1.11 billion bu.
  • Soybeans: 131 million bu.
  • Wheat: 2.28 billion bu.


"The corn number is a little lower than USDA was projecting in the September WASDE report, soybeans are just about on par with what USDA had. Any deviations from these numbers could cause big market swings," he says.

Mike Howlett, Top Third Ag Marketing, says all eyes will be on the corn and soybean numbers tomorrow. "They have been on such a sharp decline. Yields are extremely variable across the country. We could see some fireworks tomorrow morning. USDA is good a throwing curveballs."

Greg Wagner, president of GWX – Ag Advisors, says these two reports will provide partial closure on the supply side for the U.S. grain markets.

Additionally, in less than two weeks, the markets will have two other big reports to digest. USDA’s October Crop Production and WASDE reports are queued up for delivery on Thursday Oct. 11.

"Disheartened bulls and emboldened bears are likely to find their passions tempered over the course of the next two weeks," Wagner says.

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