USFR Weekly Recap - JUNE 28-29, 2014

June 28, 2014 03:30 AM
 

 

Today on USFR
JUNE 30, 2014
 
HEADLINES:
U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY SILVERADO.  2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR…TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT...THE BIG JUNE STOCKS REPORT COMES OUT MONDAY - WE HAVE A PREVIEW RUMORS OF A BLOCKBUSTER MONSANTO MERGER OVERSHADOW THEIR EARNINGS REPORT CANADIAN TRUCKERS OBJECT TO INCREASED FEES FOR AG PRODUCTS TO ENTER THE U-S
JOHN OPEN: U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY SILVERADO.  2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR… TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT...THE BIG JUNE STOCKS REPORT COMES OUT MONDAY - WE HAVE A PREVIEW RUMORS OF A BLOCKBUSTER MONSANTO MERGER OVERSHADOW THEIR EARNINGS REPORT CANADIAN TRUCKERS OBJECT TO INCREASED FEES FOR AG PRODUCTS TO ENTER THE U-S USDA REPORT REVIEW:
THANKS, JOHN. FARMERS AND GRAIN TRADERS ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING USDA'S LATEST STOCKS REPORT, SET TO BE RELEASED MONDAY. THE AGENCY WILL ALSO REVEAL INSIGHT ON PLANTED ACRES.
MONSANTO EARNINGS…MONSANTO COMPANY POSTED ITS THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS THIS WEEK, SHOWING A DROP OF 6 PERCENT.THE COMPANY CITES HIGHER COSTS AS THE REASON.  BUT LEADERS SAY THEY STILL EXPECT TO DOUBLE PROFITS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. MONSANTO'S EARNINGS REPORT CAME OUT A DAY AFTER BLOOMBERG PUBLISHED A STORY ABOUT MONSANTO POSSIBLY BUYING ITS COMPETITOR, SYNGENTA. BLOOMBERG SAID THE TALKS DIDN'T GO ANYWHERE, BUT THE INTEREST WAS OVER MONSANTO BEING BASED IN SWITZERLAND, TO DODGE HIGH CORPORATE TAX RATES IN THE U-S.
CHINA AUSTRILIA DEAL:
A MAJOR TRADE DEAL BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND CHINA COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
THAT'S ACCORDING TO OFFICALS WHO MET THIS WEEK. WHILE SHORT ON SPECIFICS, CHINA AND AUSTRALIA HAVE AGREED TO CREATE AN INVESTMENT COOPERATION FRAMEWORK TO INCREASE TRADE AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. MANY CRITICS SAY WHILE THE TALKS DO MEAN PROGRESS, THEY'VE SEEN VERY FEW SIGNS OF ANY REAL BREAKTHROUGHS BEING MADE.
CHINA RESERVES:
CHINA SAYS IT WANTS TO RAMP UP IT'S… DOMESTIC GRAIN RESERVES.  ACCORDING TO REUTERS, OFFICIALS PLAN TO INCREASE RESERVES MY 25 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR. THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY AT LEAST SIX MONTHS OF DEMAND. OFFICIALS SAY THEY ALSO PLAN TO ADD 50 MILION TONNES OF ADDITIONAL STORAGE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. CANADIAN TRUCK FEES:  CANADIAN TRUCKERS WANT TO PUT THE BRAKES ON A PROPOSED FEE HIKE BY USDA.  THE AG DEPARTMENT WANTS TO DOUBLE THE ANNUAL FEES PAID BY CANADIAN TRUCKERS THAT HAUL GOODS ACROSS THE BORDER. THE YEARLY FEE WOULD JUMP FROM ONE-HUNDRED FIVE DOLLARS PER TRUCK TO THREE-HUNDRED-AND-20 DOLLARS AND WOULD APPLY TO CANADIAN TRUCKS THAT HAUL AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SHIPMENTS WHICH MUST BE CLEARED BY THE USDA.
 ROUND TABLE #1:
 WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. WELL, WE'RE TRYING SOMETHING NEW THIS WEEK.
USUALLY THE MARKETING ROUND TABLE ALL WE FOCUS ON IS MARKETS, BUT THIS WEEK WEATHER HAS A LOT TO DO WITH MARKETS. WE HAVE TWO WEATHER EXPERTS IN HOUSE TODAY TO TALK ABOUT ALL THINGS WEATHER. WE HAVE OUR OWN METEOROLOGIST, MIKE HOFFMAN, AS WELL AS USDA METEOROLOGIST, BRAD RIPPEY. THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE.LET'S DIVE RIGHT INTO THINGS.YOU KNOW, THIS YEAR'S ALREADY BEEN AN INTERESTING YEAR. WHEN WE LOOK AT GDU ACCUMULATION IT'S BEEN KIND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL IN A LOT OF AREAS. I'M HEARING COOLER THAN NORMAL FORECAST. LET'S START WITH YOU, MIKE. WHERE DO YOU THINK WE'RE HEADED WITH THIS GDU ACCUMULATION?  I THINK WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE PROBABLY BELOW IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT. BRAD AND I JUST MET EACH OTHER YESTERDAY, BUT WE KIND OF AGREE ON WHAT'S COMING FOR THE SUMMER AND THAT IS IN GENERAL A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL AND THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WET PROBABLY CONTINUING TO BE WETTER THAN NORMAL. BRAD, I'VE ALSO HEARD ALREADY EARLY FROST RUMORS AND THINGS LIKE THAT. ARE YOU IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT OR DO YOU JUST THINK COOLER THAN NORMAL? IT'S A CONCERN, BUT, YOU KNOW, TALKING ABOUT THE FROST ISSUE, WE'LL GET TO THAT IN A SECOND. BUT IT'S REALLY THE FAR, UPPER MIDWEST IS WHERE WE'VE GONE THE FURTHEST BEHIND ON OUR GROWING DEGREE DAYS THAT'S WHERE THE PLANTING HAS BEEN LATEST. I'M THINKING THE DAKOTAS UP TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH EL NINO ON THE HORIZON THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED RISK OF A COOL PERIOD, LATE SUMMER, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, AND THAT'S WHERE WE START THINKING ABOUT THE EARLY FROST CONCERNS.
BUT IT'S NOT A LOCK. IT'S JUST SOMETHING WE HAVE IN THE BACK OF OUR MIND AS A CONCERN AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF SUMMER. MIKE, WE'VE HEARD ABOUT EL NINO. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT.
WE'VE HEARD MAYBE IT'S HERE, MAYBE IT'S NOT. WHERE DO WE SET RIGHT NOW? IT'S SITTING RIGHT NEAR THE EDGE OF WHERE THEY WOULD EVEN CALL IT AN EL NINO IF IT CONTINUED FOR THREE MONTHS.
WE DO BELIEVE IT'S PROBABLY COMING ON, IT'S MOST LIKELY, BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS JUST KIND OF HOVERING THERE. THE AUSTRALIAN WEATHER SERVICE IS FEELING LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SEPTEMBER NOW, WHICH WOULD PUSH THINGS BACK A LITTLE BIT, BUT EVEN SO THE ONCOME OR THE EL NINO COMING ON HAS ALREADY AFFECTED OUR WEATHER AND PASSED EL NINOS YOU SEE A COOLER THAN NORMAL, WETTER THAN NORMAL MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THAT.SO YOU THINK WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE A STRONG EL NINO. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THAT.WELL, I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT. THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE WHO HAVE PROCLAIMED THAT, BUT AGAIN, IT'S KIND OF LIKE IT'S GOING TO HAVE A BIG FROST IN OCTOBER, EARLY OCTOBER OR SOMETHING. THOSE ARE JUST PRONOUNCEMENTS FROM SOME PEOPLE. I THINK IN GENERAL THE MAJORITY OF US ARE LEANING TOWARD A MODERATE OR EVEN A WEAK EL NINO.  BRAD, WHERE DO YOU STAND ON EL NINO?  STRONG EL NINOS ONLY COME ALONG ONLY ABOUT ONCE A GENERATION. 1982 83, 1997 98 ARE THE ONLY TWO IN MY LIFETIME. SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THAT, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG EVENT IS PRETTY REMOTE, SO I'M IN THE WEAK TO MODERATE CAMP AT THAT POINT? SO IF WE HAVE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO, HOW DOES IT IMPACT DIFFERENT AREAS OF COUNTRY? WHO BENEFITS FROM RAINS? WHO MAYBE DOESN'T BENEFIT FROM THE RAIN? WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT? MIKE, WE'LL START WITH YOU.  IT PROBABLY DEPENDS ON HOW ON HOW OR WHETHER IT DOES GO TO MODERATE OR NOT. IN THE GREAT LAKES, AT LEAST WHERE WE'RE LOCATED HERE, WE WILL SOMETIMES HAVE A COLDER THAN NORMAL WINNER DURING A WEAK EL NINO. A STRONG ONE, THE WHOLE MIDWEST IS TYPICALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL, SO I'M KIND OF LEANING TOWARD A NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WINTER COMING UP.
AND THAT CAN CHANGE IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE CORN BELT, AND A BIG AREA OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY AFFECT IT TOO. YOU HAD MENTIONED YESTERDAY DURING OUR TALK WITH SOME OF THE FARMERS THAT IF WE HAVE A WEAK EL NINO, IT MAY NOT MAKE THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE IF THE WARM WATER'S STILL IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT GAVE US A COLD WINTER LAST YEAR. YEAH, THE STRONGER THE EL NINO THE MORE I CAN LOOK LIKE A SOOTHSAYER, THE WEAKER THE EVENT, ANYTHING GOES.INTERESTING. WELL, YOU KNOW, HOW LONG DOES IT LAST? SO WE TALK ABOUT EL NINO, THE ONCOMING, WE MAY NOT BENEFIT FROM IT THIS GROWING SEASON, BUT COULD WE NEXT GROWING SEASON? HOW LONG WILL IT TYPICALLY STAY? THE TYPICAL EL NINO LASTS FROM ONSET SUMMER OR AUTUMN INTO THE NEXT SPRING, SO IT'S LESS THAN A YEAR. AND MOST OF THE U.S. IMPACTS ARE CONFINED TO THE COLD SEASON, SO IT'S A FALL, WINTER SPRING IMPACT ON U.S. WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART. CALIFORNIA? WELL, CALIFORNIA, I THINK, IS PROBABLY HOPING FOR A STRONG EL NINO.I MEAN, THE STRONGER THE EL NINO, THE BETTER CHANCE THEY HAVE OF GETTING WAY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE. WITH A WEAK EL NINO, I'M NOT SURE IT'S GOING TO HELP THEM A WHOLE LOT. REALLY, SO THEY'VE BEEN BANKING ON RELIEF, BUT NOT MUCH RELIEF POSSIBLY?I THINK THERE COULD BE SOME, BUT THEY NEED A LOT OF RELIEF AND THEY MAY NOT GET ENOUGH FOR THAT. AFTER THREE YEARS OF DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA, THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONG EVENT. THEY MIGHT EVEN TRADE OFF SOME OF THAT MOISTURE FOR THE PROBLEMS THAT OCCUR WITH THAT WITH THE COSTAL WAVES AND THE FLOODING. WELL THERE’S A LOT  OR TALK ABOUT WITH THE DROUGHT AND SO WHEN WE COME UP WE NEED TO STILL HIT ON TEXAS.
WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT CALIFORNIA,   SO MUCH MORE TO COVER. PLEASE STAY WITH US BECAUSE WE'LL HAVE ALL OF THAT WHEN WE RETURN ON U.S. FARM REPORT.
ROUND TABLE #2:
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. WELL, RIGHT BEFORE THE BREAK WE WERE TALKING ABOUT CALIFORNIA. BRAD IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE AUTHORS OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT CALIFORNIA, ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT FOR THAT STATE?  CERTAINLY NOT IN THE SHORT TERM THE CALIFORNIA WET SEASON RUNS FROM LATE AUTUMN THROUGH THE SPRING, SO THERE'S NOTHING ON THE HORIZON FOR CALIFORNIA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SUMMER. THEY'VE GOT TO GET BY ON WHAT FELL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF NORMAL. AND THEY'VE HAD THREE SUB PAR YEARS, SO CALIFORNIA'S KIND OF LOCKED INTO DROUGHT UNTIL AT LEAST NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, OR BEYOND. WHEN WE LOOK AT AREAS LIKE TEXAS, THEY'VE BEEN LOCKED INTO DROUGHT TOO.
MIKE, WHEN YOU LOOK AT YOUR 90-DAY FORECAST WHAT ARE YOU THINKING FOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST THAT NEED IT AS WELL?  I THINK THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GET AT LEAST NORMAL AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. THE MONSOON SHOULD SET IN, BUT ALSO JUST THE PATTERN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE'VE AT LEAST BEEN GETTING SOME MOISTURE INTO THAT AND SOME SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH TO GIVE THEM SOME RAIN IN WEST TEXAS, EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SO I KIND OF SEE A CONTINUATION OF WHETHER IT'S ENOUGH OR NOT TO GET THEM THROUGH THE ENTIRE GROWING SEASON IS STILL TOUGH. RIGHT, IT HASN'T BEEN A DROUGHT BUSTER SO FAR.
BRAD, WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS DROUGHT MONITOR, HOW MUCH RAIN DOES TEXAS NEED TO GET OUT OF THIS DROUGHT? YOU GOT TO REMEMBER THAT WEST TEXAS AND NEIGHBORING AREAS HAVE BEEN IN DROUGHT FOR THREE AND A HALF YEARS, SINCE THE FALL OF 2010. IT WOULD TAKE OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, OR DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, 12 TO 18 INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH IS ALMOST A YEAR'S WORTH FOR THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TO GET OUT OF THIS DROUGHT. IT'S BECAUSE THE SUBSOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE SO GREAT AFTER THIS THREE AND A HALF YEAR DROUGHT. SO TOPSOIL LOOKS GOOD, BUT THE SUBSOIL JUST ISN'T THERE.ANY FORECAST AT ALL ABOUT CALIFORNIA?
THEY HAVEN'T HAD AS MUCH AS RELIEF RECENTLY, SO ANY PREDICTION AT ALL ABOUT HOW MUCH THEY WOULD NEED? I WOULD GUESS EVEN MORE THAN THAT. CALIFORNIA'S A TRICKY ANIMAL BECAUSE THE DESERT AREAS DON'T GET MUCH RAIN, BUT IT'S THE WATERSHED, THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, THAT DEPEND ON THAT MOISTURE AND THEY WOULD NEED DOZENS OF INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WINTER TO HELP FILL THE RESERVOIRS BACK UP. WELL, MIKE, WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THESE SEASONAL SHIFTS LIKE MONSOON RAINS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, COULD WE GET MORE RELIEF IN THE WEST FOR MAYBE SOME OF THOSE SEASONAL SHIFTS? I THINK THE FAR WEST HAS TO HOPE FOR MODERATE, THE STRONGER EL NINO, IT'S POSSIBLE TO TRY TO GET SOME OF THAT MOISTURE IN THERE BECAUSE RIGHT NOW THE PATTERN, THE TROUGHS KEEP DIGGING INTO THE WEST, WHICH IS EAST OF THEM BECAUSE IT BRINGS UP THE PACIFIC AND THE GULF MOISTURE IN THE AREAS EAST OF CALIFORNIA.
SO I JUST DON'T SEE A LOT OF RELIEF COMING ANY TIME SOON FOR THERE.  LET'S TALK ABOUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.I MEAN, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOME OF THESE AREAS, THEY'VE BEEN POUNDED WITH RAIN RECENTLY AND A LOT OF SEVERE STORMS. DO YOU SEE THAT CONTINUING, BRAD? IN THE STORM TERM, YES, I DO. I THINK THE WAY THE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED RIGHT NOW,
LIKE MIKE SAID, WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF ENERGY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND THAT JUST CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THE SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.FOR A LOT OF THE GRAIN BELT, THAT'S GOOD NEWS BECAUSE IT MEANS REGULAR, FREQUENT RAINS, BUTIN THAT CONCENTRATED AREA ACROSS THE UPPER, NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, JUST TOO MUCH RAIN.MIKE, WE'VE TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HOW BRUTAL OF A WINTER IT HAD BEEN AND YOU KIND OF SEE US MAYBE CONTINUING TO HAVE COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTERS MOVING FORWARD. ARE YOU STILL THINKING THAT OR ARE THERE ANY SHORT TERM CYCLES THAT WE NEED TO WATCH? WELL, IT'S KIND OF INTERESTING.
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION IS KIND OF WHAT I'VE LOOKED AT TO SAY THAT. THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE WINTERS LIKE THE '70S COMING UP AND WE DID THIS WINTER WAS ONE THEM ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION IS TEMPORARILY IN A WARM PHASE BECAUSE OF THAT WARM WATER IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT IN GENERAL IT'S IN A COLD PHASE FOR THE NEXT, PROBABLY 15 TO 20 YEARS.SO THAT'S KIND OF THE REASON I SAY THAT. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE EVERY WINTER.
THERE ARE TOO MANY FACTORS THAT GO INTO IT FOR THAT. IT WAS BRUTAL. I DON'T WANT TO HEAR THAT. IT WAS BRUTAL. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. COUPLE QUESTIONS OFF OF TWITTER…
SO I WANT TO GO AHEAD AND ASK THOSE REAL QUICK. FIRST OF ALL, JD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SAYS, WILL A STORM MOVE DIRECTION IF IT RUNS INTO A 14,000 ACRE LAKE?
I'VE HEARD RUMORS OF THIS. BRAD? THAT'S A LAKE THAT'S A LITTLE OVER THE 20 SQUARE MILES SO IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT MAYBE A 5 MILE ACROSS LAKE, THAT COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE OF MICRO CLIMATE. SO IF A LAZY THUNDERSTORM COMES ROLLING OVER I DON'T KNOW SO MUCH OF A CHANGED DIRECTION, BUT THERE'S NO FRICTION OVER THAT WATER SO THINGS CAN HAPPEN OVER OPEN WATER THAT WON'T HAPPEN OVER FORESTED OR EVEN AGRICULTURAL LAND. SO I'D HAVE TO SAY, YES, THAT COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE AT LEAST ON A MICRO CLIMATE.INTERESTING.MIKE, REAL QUICK, JAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SAYS, THEY'VE BEEN WET. ARE WE GOING TO STAY LIKE THIS ALL SUMMER OR ARE WE GOING TO HAVE TO IRRIGATE AT SOME POINT?  I THINK OVERALL THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE WET. BUT CHANCES ARE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE YOU DO HAVE TO IRRIGATE OKAY. THANK YOU BOTH. WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS COMING UP, SO PLEASE STAY WITH US ON U.S. FARM REPORT.
MARKETS NOW:
WELCOME BACK TO THE SEGMENT WE CALL MARKETS NOW. WE'RE NOT DISCUSSING MARKETS, WE'RE ACTUALLY DISCUSSING WEATHER. BUT WHAT DO YOU WANT TO LEAVE FARMERS WITH?
MIKE, YOU GO FIRST. WELL, NUMBER ONE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEY GOT A VERY SLOW START THIS YEAR AND NOW THEY'VE HAD A LOT OF MOISTURE. NOW, MOISTURE UNFORTUNATELY KEEPS THE HEAT LEVELS DOWN, WHICH COULD EVEN STUNT THE GROWTH OF CORN EVEN MORE, SO WE DO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN EARLY FROST OR FREEZE THERE. I'M NOT FORECASTING ONE IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM, BUT IF ONE COMES A WEEK OR TWO EARLY IT COULD BE A REAL SERIOUS TROUBLE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMBER TWO WOULD BE THE HURRICANE SEASON. WITH THE ONSET OF EL NINO WE TYPICALLY HAVE A BELOW AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON, WHICH IS PROBABLY GOOD NEWS BECAUSE THE AREAS THAT NORMALLY GET HIT BY HURRICANES DON'T REALLY NEED THE MOISTURE ANYWAY.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COLDER THAN NORMAL RIGHT NOW, SO ANY HURRICANES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE UP THE EAST COAST THAN FARTHER WEST. OKAY, BRAD.WHAT DO YOU WANT TO LEAVE US WITH?
JUST DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WE'VE HAD THIS SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER,
JUST REMEMBER THAT WE STILL HAVE MORE THAN A THIRD OF COUNTRY IN DROUGHT, 36%.
GRANTED A LOT OF THAT'S IN THE CALIFORNIA TEXAS BELT, BUT YOU GOT TO REMEMBER THAT WE ARE STILL IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED DROUGHT COVERAGE. THE LAST TIME HISTORICALLY WE SEE 20% OF THE COUNTRY IN DROUGHT ON AVERAGE LOOKING AT HISTORY. THE LAST TIME WE WERE BELOW 20% WAS DECEMBER OF 2010, SO UNTIL WE KIND OF SHAKE THE VESTIGES OF THIS LONG-TERM DROUGHT WE STILL HAVE TO THINK ABOUT DROUGHT IN THIS COUNTRY. A LOT OF FOCUS GOES ONTO CALIFORNIA,
THE NUMBER ONE AGRICULTURAL STATE IN TERMS OF CASH RECEIPTS AND A GREAT VARIETY OF CROPS THAT SO MANY OF US DEPEND ON.ANOTHER THING THAT'S JUST KIND OF ON THE RADAR SCREEN IS TALKING ABOUT THE TROPICAL HURRICANE SEASON. EL NINO TENDS TO BE A SUPPRESSIVE FACTOR, SO AS WE GET INTO THE PEAK HURRICANE MONTHS, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, IF EL NINO WERE DEVELOP THAT COULD SUPPRESS HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST IF WE DON'T GET THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE. OKAY. THANK YOU BOTH.A LITTLE BIT OF GOOD NEWS, A LITTLE BIT OF BAD NEWS, BUT IT IS REALITY. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE WITH US TODAY.
JOHNS WORLD: RECENTLY THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER RELEASED A REPORT ON POLITICAL POLARIZATION. THE WHOLE REPORT IS WORTH READING AND WE'LL POST THE LINK.
ONE GRAPH FROM THAT REPORT HAS GOTTEN GREAT ATTENTION IN THE MEDIA. AS YOU LOOK AT THE CHANGES IN IDEAOLOGICAL DIVISIONS FROM 1994 TO 2014, THE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION IS DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN GETTING MORE LIBERAL AND REPUBLICANS ARE GETTING MORE CONSERVATIVE.
BUT THE DRIFT IS ACTUALLY BEING CAUSED NOT BY CHANGED ATTITUDES AS MUCH AS AMERICANS SORTING THEMSELVES INTO MORE UNIFORM GROUPS. YEARS AGO THERE USED TO BE CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS IN BOTH PARTIES. NO, SERIOUSLY. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE WERE ROCKEFELLER REPUBLICANS. LIBERAL LEGISLATORS LIKE JACOB JAVITS AND NELSON ROCKEFELLER WERE IMPORTANT REPUBLICAN LEADERS, AND BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS FORMED A DEMOCRATIC CONSERVATIVE WING.
BUT AS CURRENT PRIMARIES ARE REVEALING, GERRYMANDERED DISTRICTS HAVE CARVED OUT ELECTORATES THAT ARE DEEP RED AND DARK BLUE, AND MANY FEWER PURPLE ONES. TODAY THE IDEA OF A LIBERAL REPUBLICAN IS ALMOST AN OXYMORON IN A PARTY THAT IS SYSTEMATICALLY REPLACING MODERATES LIKE DICK LUGAR AND THAD COCHRAN - ALMOST. THIS TREND OF FLOCKING TOGETHER, AIDED BY SUCH POLITICALLY DRAWN ELECTION MAPS IS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WHAT MANY MISTAKE AS DIVERGING BELIEFS. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SIMILAR TO OUR NATION AND IMMIGRATION, OUR POLITICAL PARTIES ARE LOSING THE ABILITY TO BE MELTING POTS. THEY ARE INSTEAD IDEOLOGICAL STRAINERS.
TAG & CLOSE:
COMING UP IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR - THE TIDES ARE CHANGING FOR LOBSTERMEN ON THE EASTCOAST. WE'LL SEE HOW THEY'RE MANAGING TO KEEP THE MULTIGENERATIONAL OPERATION A FLOAT.
STAY WITH US - THE SECOND HALF OF U-S FARM REPORT IS COMING RIGHT UP.
HEADLINES:
U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY SILVERADO.  2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT...HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE WORLD CONGRESS ON AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION THE NEW YORK LEGISLATURE JUMPS INTO THE GESTATION STALL CONTROVERSY AND IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A GREAT YEAR FOR CHERRIES FOR MANY PRODUCERS IN THE MIDWEST
JOHN OPEN:
U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY SILVERADO. 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT... HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE WORLD CONGRESS ON AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION THE NEW YORK LEGISLATURE JUMPS INTO THE GESTATION STALL CONTROVERSY AND IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A GREAT YEAR FOR CHERRIES FOR MANY PRODUCERS IN THE MIDWEST CONSERVATION:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. REMEMBER BACK WHEN EVERYONE THOUGHT GREECE WAS SURELY GOING TO MELTDOWN AND TAKE THE E-U WITH IT? WELL, THAT HASN'T HAPPENED EVEN THOUGH GREEK CITIZENS HAVE ENDURED BRUTAL SPENDING CUTBACKS AND SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT. ONE OF THE KEY INDUSTRIES TO HELP THE GREEK ECONOMY CLAW ITS WAY BACK HAS BEEN AGRICUTURE. DEMAND FOR COMMODITIES LIKE OLIVE OIL AND HONEY HAVE HELPED GREEK FARMERS EXPAND PRODUCTION AND MAKE SOME SERIOUS MONEY. IT WOULD SEEM NATIONS CAN ENDURE PRETTY HARD TIMES IF THEIR AGRICULTURE BASE HOLDS FAST.
TYNE MORGAN HAS OUR HEADLINES...
DEAD ZONE:
ONE FACTOR DRIVING THE SWITCH TO MORE CONSERVATION ON FARMS IS REDUCING RUNOFF.
 SOME HAVE POINTED TO AGRICULTURE AS THE MAIN REASON THE HYPOXIC OR DEAD ZONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS GROWN.SCIENTISTS AT NOAA JUST CAME OUT WITH THEIR PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR-- SAYING THE EXPECT AN AVERAGE DEADZONE IN THE GULF THIS YEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
PESTICIDES WOMEN:THE FEAR OF NEGATIVE HEALTH EFFECTS FROM PESTICIDES IS NOTHING NEW.
 BUT A REPORT OUT OF UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS THIS WEEK ONLY HAS PREGNANT WOMEN MORE WORRIED.
ENLIST:
MEANWHILE, YOU DON'T HAVE MUCH LONGER TO TELL THE EPA YOUR THOUGHTS ON A NEW HERBICIDE CONTAINING 2-4-D. THE COMMENT PERIOD ENDS MONDAY FOR DOW AGROSCIENCES NEW ENLIST HERBICIDE. TO COMMENT, JUST GO TO REGULATIONS DOT GOV.
NEW YORK PORK:
THERE'S BEEN A RECENT PUSH TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOW GESTATION STALLS WITH THE PORK INDUSTRY.
 BUT NEW YORK LEGISLATORS AREN'T JUMPING ON BOARD.  INSTEAD, STATE LAWMAKERS DECIDED THIS WEEK TO ALLOW PRODUCERS TO HAVE A CHOICE AND NOT FORCE THEM INTO CHANGING PRACTICES.
  MAJOR PORK SUPPLIERS LIKE SMITHFIELD FOODS AND CARGILL ALREADY ANNOUNCED PLANS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM SOW GESTATION STALLS
ARKANSAS PED:
MEANWHILE, REPORTS SURFACED EARLIER THIS WEEK ABOUT ARKANSAS BEING THE LATEST STATE TO CONFIRM P-E-D. HOWEVER, U-S FARM REPORT HAS CONFIRMED THAT NEWS IS FALSE.WE TALKED TO THE ARKANSAS STATE VETERNARIAN WHO TOLD US THE INFECTION WAS ACTUALLY FROM A FARM IN MISSOURI. THE SAMPLES CAME FROM A LARGE CORPORATION BASED IN ARKANSAS. BUT THE LAB THAT TESTED THE RESULTS GOT THE BILLING ADDRESS AND PHYICAL FARM ADDRESS MIXED UP.
CHERRY PRODUCTION:
 THE HARSH WINTER TOOK ITS TOLL ON THE NATION'S CHERRY CROP. USDA SAYS TART CHERRY PRODUCTION IS DOWN 10 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR'S NUMBERS. MICHIGAN, THE LARGEST PRODUCING STATE, IS REPORTING A WIDELY VARIED CROP FROM WINTERKILL AND FREEZE DAMAGE.HOWEVER, WASHINGTON STATE EXPECTS A BIG INCREASE IN PRODUCTION OVER LAST YEAR, THANKS TO GOOD WEATHER.
USFR-REOPEN:
YOU'RE WATCHING US FARM REPORT, WITH HOST JOHN PHIPPS, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL, NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN AND METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. US FARM REPORT, THE SPIRIT OF THE COUNTRYSIDE.
RABO DAIRY:
IT'S LIKE A SCENE FROM OUT OF A MOVIE. ROBOTS TAKING OVER THE FARM….BUT FOR DAIRY FARMERS, LABOR SHORTAGES ARE LEAVING SOME DESPERATE FOR HELP, AND AS ROBERT BUMSTEAD WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESS TELLS US  IT’S ROBOTS TO THE RESCUE.
USFR WEB TEASE:
MISS ANY OF TODAY'S SHOW? HEAD TO USFARMREPORT.COM TO WATCH THE PROGRAM ONLINE. U.S. FARM REPORT, THE SPIRIT OF COUNTRYSID
LEGACY OPEN:
MISS ANY OF TODAY'S SHOW? HEAD TO USFARMREPORT.COM TO WATCH THE PROGRAM ONLINE. U.S. FARM REPORT, THE SPIRIT OF COUNTRYSID
LEAVE A LEGACY:
 YOU DON'T HAVE TO FARM GRAIN OR CATTLE TO HAVE A PART IN FEEDING THE WORLD.
TODAY IN OUR LEAVE A LEGACY REPORT, CLINTON GRIFFITHS TAKES US TO THE STATE OF MAINE TO MEET A FAMILY THAT'S AS COMFORMTABLE ON THE WATER AS THEY ARE ON LAND.
TRACTOR TALES:
AL, WHAT'S ON TAP FOR TRACTOR TALES THIS WEEK? WELL JOHN, WE'VE GOT AN OLIVER ROW CROP 88 TO SHOW YOU TODAY.
CHURCH SALUTE:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO ST CATHERINE OF SIENA CATHOLIC CHURCH IN ALEDO {UH-LEE-DOE}, ILLINOIS. THIS FALL MARKS THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY FOR THE CHURCH. AND WHILE THE ORIGINAL WOODEN CHURCH HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THIS BRICK STRUCTURE, A WOODEN CEILING IS HAND PAINTED WITH SYMBOLS OF FAITH.
AND NEARLY 200 FAMILIES ATTENDING THE CHURCH TODAY, THE CONGREGATION IS AS STRONG AS EVER.  OUR THANKS TO SUSAN DEBLOCK FOR SHARING THEIR STORY.
CHURCH BILLBOARD:
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY FARMERS FEEDING THE WORLD- AGRICULTURE LEADING THE WAY IN FEEDING A HUNGRY PLANET. LEARN MORE. GIVE GENEROUSLY. DREAM HUGE WITH US.
MAILBAG:
TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK, INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG...TIME TO HEAR FROM YOU VIA OUR MAILBAG: JOEL FRIZZELL THINK OUR BELIEVES THE METRIC SYSTEM REPUDIATES THE FOUNDING FATHERS INTENT TO BE TRULY INDEPENDENT. "IT MEANT SO MUCH TO OUR FOUNDING FATHERS, THAT THEY CAME UP WITH A NEW SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES. THEY IN NO WAY WANTED TO BE LIKE ANY OTHER COUNTRY. IT REMINDED THEM OF THE TYRANNY AND MONARCHY THAT THEY LEFT BEHIND."
JOEL THANKS FOR SHARING YOUR VIEWS. OUR CURRENT SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES IS NOT HOWEVER, SOMETHING WE INVENTED IN 1776. AS BRITISH COLONIES, THE NEW STATES KEPT ON USING THE SAME SYSTEM AS THEIR ANCESTORS IN ENGLAND. OUR SYSTEM IS OFFICIALLY KNOWN AS AVOIRDUPOIS, WHICH IS AN ANGLO-NORMAN WORD. IT CAME INTO USE AROUND 1300 AND MIGHT HAVE ORIGINATED IN FLORENCE, ITALY EVEN EARLIER. AFTER YEARS OF ARGUING ABOUT HOW BIG A GALLON WAS OR HOW LONG AN INCH SHOULD BE, THE METRIC SYSTEM WAS INTRODUCED IN 1799. BASED ON THE NUMBER 10, THE ADVANTAGES OVER 16 OUNCE POUNDS AND 56 POUND BUSHELS ARE ENORMOUS. SMALL WONDER THAT FRUSTRATED USERS AROUND THE WORLD ADOPTED A SYSTEM THAT TODAY IS THE BASIS FOR TRADE AND SCIENCE. ARE WE DIMINISHED AS A NATION WHEN WE USE BETTER TOOLS INVENTED ELSEWHERE? I DON'T THINK SO. AFTER ALL, WE EXPORT OUR GOOD IDEAS EVERYDAY. NOBODY IS FORCING THE METRIC SYSTEM ON THE U-S. BUT MY BELIEF IS OUR SOLITARY REFUSAL TO ADOPT A BETTER WAY MAY ACTUALLY HINDERS OUR GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.
CONTACT:
AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
GOODBYE:
 AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
RFD PROMO:
THIS WEEKEND ON U-S FARM REPORT…  USDA'S UPCOMING GRAIN REPORT COULD BE A BIG ONE-- WE HAVE SOME INSIGHT. AND LOBSTER FARMING ISN'T EASY. WE'LL INTRODUCE YOU TO A FAMILY THAT'S TRUDGING THROUGH THE MUDDY WATERS TO KEEP THEIR LEGACY ALIVE.
 JOIN US THIS WEEKEND ON R-F-D.
 
 
 
 
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