USFR Weekly Recap - November 9-10, 2013

November 9, 2013 02:30 AM
 

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THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT

EPISODE # 2100

NOVEMBER 9-10, 2013   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 800-792-4329.

 

JOHN OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. THE NUMBERS ARE OUT, LET THE ARGUMENTS COMMENCE. TYNE WILL HAVE THE NOVEMBER CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES IN A MINUTE, BUT THE DRAMA THAT NORMALLY SURROUNDS THIS ESTIMATE WAS INCREASED BY THE ABSENCE OF AN OCTOBER EDITION OF CROP SIZE. BUT WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS TO SEE IF WE REALLY MISSED THAT OCTOBER ESTIMATE. I'M BEGINNING TO THINK AS BUDGETS FOR ALL OF FEDERAL AGENCIES ARE SQUEEZED BY FISCAL AUSTERITY MEASURES, THE USDA MAY SIMPLY DECREASE THE NUMBER OF CROP REPORTS THEY PUT OUT TO SAVE MONEY. AND NOW THEY MAY BE ABLE TO POINT TO OCTOBER REPORT AS ONE THAT COULD BE DROPPED WITHOUT HUGE CONSEQUENCES. LET'S GET TO THE BUSHELS - HERE'S TYNE MORGAN.

CROP PRODUCTION:

THANKS, JOHN AND HELLO, EVERYONE.
THE LATEST USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT WAS A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ONE, AS MUCH OF THE TRADE KEPT FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE REPORT. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME USDA HAS RELEASED A REPORT SINCE SEPTEMBER.

WASDE:

MEANWHILE, USDA UPPED ITS TOTAL CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW 14 BILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S UP 30 PERCENT FROM 2012. HARVESTED CORN ACRES DROPPED 1 POINT 9 MILLION TO 87 POINT 2 MILLION ACRES. SOYBEAN FORECAST IS NOW AT 3/26 BILLION BUSHELS, 3 PERCENT HIGHER THAN ITS SEPTEMBER ESTIMATE. USDA ALSO LOWERED HARVESTED SOYBEAN ACRES TO 75.9 MILLION. AND COTTON PRODUCTION 13.1 MILLION BALES. THAT'S DOWN 24 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR'S FINAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS. THAT FORECAST IS UP 2 PERCENT FROM IT'S PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO BETTER THAN EXPECTED YIELDS IN THE DELTA AND SOUTHEAST. AL PELL WILL BE ON LATER TO DISCUSS THE REPORTS IN DETAIL WIITH THIS WEEK'S MARKET ANALYSTS.

CROP PROGRESS:

THE AGENCY'S MONDAY CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS FARMERS HAVE NOT ONLY CAUGHT UP THE AVERAGE HARVEST, BUT ARE AHEAD. IT SHOWS 73 PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP IS IN THE BIN, TWO POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE AND A 14 POINT BUMP FROM LAST WEEK. SOYBEAN HARVEST ALSO PUSHED AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE MARK. 86-PERCENT IS NOW COMPLETED, A POINT AHEAD OF AVERAGE. COTTON PICKING, ON THE OTHER HAND, CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND WITH 43-PERCENT BALED.

WESTERN IOWA:

IN WESTERN IOWA, FARMERS WERE HARVESTING TRYING TO BEAT THIS WEEK'S RAIN. BETWEEN THE CROPS NOT DRYING DOWN AND FALL RAIN SHOWERS, HARVEST HAS BEEN SLOW. AND ONE FARMER TOLD ME YIELDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT.
PITCH TO MIKE:

THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH CROP WATCH. MIKE, WITH ANOTHER STORM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK, WE HEAR IT CREATED QUITE THE MESS

CROP WATCH:

THAT'S RIGHT TYNE. A REAL MESS FOR SOME PRODUCERS, FARMERS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ARE STRUGGLING TO BRING-IN THEIR CROPS. A FARMER FROM MEEKER COUNTY, MINNESOTA SAYS HE GOT FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HE SAYS THIS IS EASILY IS THE MOST DIFFICULT HARVEST SEASON IN AT LEAST 40 YEARS. THERE IS STILL ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE CORN LEFT TO HARVEST. HE EXPECTS SOME SOYBEANS WILL BE IN THE FIELD UNTIL SPRING. AND IN NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA KENNY REINKE (RAIN-KEE) SENT THIS PHOTO YESTERDAY. THEY GOT UP TO FIVE INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW IN THEIR AREA. THE TREES STILL HAVE LEAVES. HE SAYS CROP MOISTURE IS OVER 20 PERCNET, AND ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE AREA'S CROPS ARE IN THE BIN. TORY WENTWORTH POSTED THIS PICTURE ON TWITTER TUESDAY NIGHT.HE SAID THEY FINISHED UP THIS FIELD BEFORE THE COLD RAIN AND WIND SET IN. THEY'RE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE THE FINISH LINE FOR HARVEST 2013.     

JOHN’S WORLD:

LIKE MANY OF YOU, I USE AMAZON. A LOT. THERE IS SOMETHING ABOUT THAT ONE-CLICK ORDERING THAT IS VERY SEDUCTIVE. BUT FOR ALL THEIR SUCCESS, AMAZON HASN'T SHOWN MUCH PROFIT. WELL, HARDLY ANY TO BE EXACT. SO WHY IS IT STILL POPULAR WITH INVESTORS AND WHY IS JEFF BEZOS, THE CEO, CONSIDERED ONE OF THE BEST BUSINESS LEADERS IN THE WORLD? I THINK THE REASON IS A BUSINESS PLAN THAT HAS SOME ASPECTS FARMERS COULD ADAPT TO AGRICULTURE. AMAZON IS REDEFINING RETAILING BY MASSIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING. IN CONTRAST TO FIRMS FEVERISHLY WORKING TO MAKE QUARTERLY RESULTS THAT APPEASE WALL STREET, AMAZON IS BUILDING A TECHNOLOGICAL BEHEMOTH THAT WILL GENERATE SALES AND PROFIT MANY YEARS DOWN THE ROAD. BY PLOWING BACK VIRTUALLY ALL POTENTIAL PROFITS INTO THE CO0MPANY, BEZOS TARGETS INCREASED MARKET SHARE OVER CASH IN THE BANK. IT IS THIS SINGLEMINDED PUSH TOWARD THE FUTURE - A RATHER DISTANT FUTURE - THAT I ADMIRE. WHILE I DO NOT DISPUTE THE ACCEPTED WISDOM OF DIVERSIFIED WEALTH AND MAINTAINING CASH RESERVES, AMAZON DEMONSTRATES THAT BUSINESSES WHO DECIDE TO GO ALL IN CAN GAIN A TREMENDOUS MARKET ADVANTAGE OVER COMPETITORS. FOR ME IT MEANS THAT MY INSTINCT TO REINVEST PROFITS FROM THE FARM BACK INTO THE FARM MAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY M,ISTAKEN. TO BE SURE IT CARRIES RISKS, BUT LIKE AMAZON, I THINK MOST OF US ARE IN THIS BUSINESS FOR THE VERY LONG HAUL. IN THE PROCESS, LIKE AMAZON, WE CAN DRIVE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURE TO EVEN GREATER HEIGHTS.

2ND HALF

HEADLINES:

ONE BEEF PROCESSOR DECIDES TO LABEL AND LET THE CONSUMER DECIDE. AND WE FOLLOW A VET ON CALL IN THOROUGHBRED HORSE COMPANY.

JOHN OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. LOST IN ALL THE ATTENTION ON NEW JERSEY , NEW YORK, AND OTHER CELEBRITY RACES THIS WEEK WERE SEVERAL SMALLER VOTES THAT WILL IMPACT AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AMERICA. I WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING SOME OF THEM IN COMING SHOWS. THIS WEEK WE HAVE THE STORY OF THE GMO LABELING VOTE IN WASHINGTON STATE. WHAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION WAS THE ENORMOUS EXPENDITURES BY SEED COMPANIES TO DEFEND GMO PRODUCTS. MONSANTO SPENT OVER 5 MILLION, DUPONT NEARLY FOUR AND OTHER AG GIANTS CHIPPED IN AS WELL.
IN A COMPLETELY UNRELATED STORY, WE JUST DISCOVERED THE LIST COST OF OUR SEED CORN BROKE THE $400 DOLLAR BARRIER THIS YEAR. LET'S GET TO THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S TYNE MORGAN.

TRANS FAT BAN:

FDA IS MAKING STRIDES TO IMPROVE AMERICANS' DIETS, AND IT COULD BENEFIT FARMERS WHO GROW VALUE-ADDED SOYBEANS.

LFTB CARGILL:

AS THE FOOD LABELING DEBATE ERUPTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ONE MAJOR BEEF PROCESSOR ANNOUNCES HOW IT WILL ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF FINELY TEXTURED BEEF.

FARM BILL:

THE FARM BILL CONFERENCE COMMITTEE WILL BE BACK AT WORK THIS WEEK, AS CONGRESS HEADS BACK TO WASHINGTON. NEBRASKA FARMER ZACH HUNNICUTT SAYS HE'S AGAINST THE HOUSE'S PROPOSAL OF SEPARATING THE FOOD PORTION FROM THE FARM BILL.

GMO VOTE:

MEANWHILE, VOTERS IN WASHINGTON STATE, APPARENTLY SAID NO TO MANDATORY LABELING OF GMO FOODS IN the STATE'S ELECTION TUESDAY. IT'S NOT OFFICIAL, AS MORE THAN 300 THOUSAND MAIL-IN BALLOTS HAVE YET TO BE COUNTED. WITHOUT THOSE VOTES, THE INITIATIVE IS LOSING 45 PERCENT TO 55 PERCENT.

HEARTLAND VETS ON CALL:

SOME OF THE FINEST RACE HORSES IN THE COUNTRY COME FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THE EQUINE INDUSTRY IS ESSENTIAL TO THE STATE'S ECONOMY. THAT'S WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO HAVE TOP-NOTCH VETERINARIANS TO CARE FOR THESE FINE THOROUGHBREDS. IN OUR SPECIAL REPORT "VETS ON CALL", WE HEAR FROM DOCTOR DEBORAH SPIKE-PIERCE ABOUT THESE MAGNIFICENT ANIMALS.

NEXT WEEK:

NEXT WEEK WE HEAD TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MEET THE SOHN-REY FAMILY. THE GROW RICE, TREE-NUTS AND THREE VERY ACTIVE SONS WHO WANT TO PUSH THE FARM TO THE NEXT LEVEL. JOIN US FOR THIS "LEAVE A LEGACY" SPECIAL NEXT WEEKEND ON U=S FARM REPORT.

WEST COAST PORTS:

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR GRAIN SHIPMENTS, YOU CAN'T OVERLOOK THE IMPORTANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RECENT YEARS, THE AMOUNT OF SOYBEAN SHIPMENTS FROM THE P-N-W TO CHINA HAVE EXPLODED. THE EXPORT LOGISTICS ARE PROVING TO BE PROFITBLE FOR FARMERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MICHELLE ROOK TRAVELED WITH THE GROUP TO GAUGE THE IMPACT.

TRACTOR TALES:

THIS WEEK TRACTOR TALES TAKES US TO THE SUNFLOWER STATE. JOHN, DURING A SUMMER VISIT TO CENTRAL KANSAS, WE FOUND AN TRACTOR ENTHUSIAST WITH A CLASSIC OLIVER. THIS 1938 HART-PARR HAS SOME POWER. AND BACK WHEN IT WAS A YOUNG PUP, THIS PIECE OF FARM HISTORY REALLY LIVED UP TO ITS NAME!

CHURCH SALUTE:

TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH OF MOUNT CARROLL, ILLINOIS. IT WAS STARTED IN 1853. IN 1881 CHURCH MEMBER MRS AARON COLE PURCHASED A BELL IN MEMORY OF HER HUSBAND. A BELL TOWER WAS EVENTUALLY BUILT.
A POWERFUL STORM IN 1894 DESTROYED THE CHURCH BUILDING, BUT THE BELL TOWER SURVIVED! AND EVEN NOW THE BELL STILL RINGS-OUT EVERY SUNDAY. OUR THANKS TO DICK KEEL AND LEO GELWICKS FOR THE INFORMATION. OUR SECOND SALUTE GOES TO THE PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH OF BELDEN, NEBRASKA. IT WAS ORGANIZED 100 YEARS AGO.
SERVICES WERE HELD AT THE OPERA HOUSE IN BELDEN UNTIL 1917. DURING THE DEPRESSION, THE HOPE REFORMED CHURCH OF BELDEN JOINED THE PRESBYTERIAN CHURCH. THE CONGREGATION HELD A SPECIAL WORSHIP LAST WEEKEND TO MARK THE CENTENNIAL. OUR THANKS TO KATHIE AND ED KEIFER FOR SHARING THE NEWS.

MAIL BAG:

TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG...CHERYL KOOMPIN FROM AMERICAN FALLS, IDAHO SECONDS MY SUGGESTION WE NEED TO TAKE SLEEP MORE SERIOUSLY. "OUR SONS AND NEPHEW ARE TRYING TO CONVINCE MY HUSBAND AND BROTHER-IN LAW OF THE EFFICIENCY OF AN 8-10 HOUR DAY AND MORE TIME TO NOT JUST SLEEP BUT TO UNWIND WITH THE FAMILY AND PARTICIPATE IN THE LIFE OF THE COMMUNITY".
THANKS FOR WRITING CHERYL. I THINK IT IS INTERESTING THAT YOU ARE SEEING THE SAME GENERATIONAL TENSION ON THIS ISSUE AS ON OUR FARM. THIS CULTURAL SHIFT IF OFTEN MISUNDERSTOOD AS A SLACKER KIDS VERSUS WORKAHOLIC PARENTS CLASH. BUT I SEE THIS DIFFERENCE OF VALUES AS A RESIDUE FROM LONG BEFORE. IN MY LIFETIME, FARMING HAS BECOME FAR LESS ABOUT LABOR AND FAR MORE ABOUT CAPITAL. WHILE THE RETURN TO LABOR IS DECLINING ACROSS OUR ECONOMY, IT IS ESPECIALLY STEEP IN AGRICULTURE. WE HAVE ADAPTED SO MUCH TECHNOLOGY AND MECHANIZATION THAT IT IS HARD TO GAIN MUCH COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE BY EXTRAORDINARILY LONG HOURS. FOR MY FATHER, THE AMOUNT OF HARD PHYSICAL LABOR A FARMER COULD DO WAS THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN HIS PROFITABILITY. SO WHILE WORKING AT HIS SIDE, THE VALUE OF LONG HOURS WAS DEEPLY IMPRINTED. THE BUSINESS WAS NOT NEARLY SO PROFITABLE EITHER, SO DAD HAD LITTLE CHOICE.

 

 

 

 

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