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WASDE: Beef Production Higher; Pork Down

June 12, 2013
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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2013 is raised from last month as higher beef and broiler production more than offsets lower pork production. Beef production is raised from last month as poor forage conditions have resulted in relatively large placements of cattle in feedlots in the first part of 2013 and cow slaughter remains high. Broiler slaughter is raised slightly for the third quarter, reflecting hatchery data. Pork production in second quarter is lowered based on the pace of hog slaughter and slightly lower expected carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 28 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. Turkey production is unchanged from last month. Egg production is raised, reflecting slightly higher table egg production in the third quarter. Red meat, poultry, and egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Forecasts for 2013 beef exports are reduced from last month as trade to a number of markets has been relatively weak. Broiler exports are raised based on export strength to date. Pork exports are unchanged. Forecasts for 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Cattle price forecasts for 2013 are lowered from last month, reflecting lower-than-expected prices to date. Broiler prices are raised, reflecting strong domestic and export demand. Hog prices are raised as tighter supplies have pushed prices higher. Price forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is unchanged. For 2014, the production forecast is lowered as relatively weak milk-to-feed ratios in the third and fourth quarter of 2013 are expected to slow production growth in the first half of 2014. Fat basis exports for 2013 are lowered based on slow butter exports through April. Skim-solid exports are higher based on expectations of continued robust nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports. Fat and skim basis exports for 2014 are unchanged. Fat basis imports are raised for 2013 and 2014.

Forecasts for 2013 cheese and butter prices are lowered from last month, reflecting greater stocks and weaker-than-expected prices to date. The NDM price is raised on tightening supplies and expectations of continued robust export demand. The price range for whey is narrowed. As a result of the lower cheese price forecast, the Class III price is reduced. The Class IV price is down as lower butter prices more than offset higher NDM. For 2014, the butter price forecast is lowered as stocks remain high, but other product prices are unchanged. The Class III price forecast is unchanged, but the Class IV price is lowered. The all milk price is forecast at $19.60 to $20.00 per cwt for 2013 and $18.95 to $19.95 for 2014.


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Coverage, Analysis of the June 12 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.
 

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RELATED TOPICS: Beef, Dairy, Hogs, Poultry, Marketing, Milk, USDA

 

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