COARSE GRAINS: U.S. 2012/13 feed grain supplies are increased slightly with higher corn production
more than offsetting a reduction for sorghum. Harvested area for corn is lowered 346,000 acres, but a 1.1-bushel-per-acre increase in the estimated yield boosts production 55 million bushels. Sorghum
harvested area is nearly unchanged, but a 1.3-bushel-per-acre decrease in the estimated yield lowers production 9 million bushels.
Projected corn use for 2012/13 is raised with higher expected feed and residual disappearance more
than offsetting reduced prospects for exports. Feed and residual use is projected 300 million bushels higher based on September-November disappearance as indicated by December 1 stocks and on higher expected beef, pork, and poultry production. Corn exports are projected 200 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and increasing pressure from larger supplies and exports for South America.
Corn ending stocks are projected 44 million bushels lower at 602 million. The season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel. While stiff competition has limited U.S. corn exports, higher domestic disappearance leaves the balance sheet historically tight and is expected to support continued strong and volatile prices well into summer, particularly in the domestic cash markets.
Other 2012/13 feed grain changes this month include increases in projected sorghum, barley, and oats feed and residual disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are
projected 35 million bushels lower with feed and residual use projected up 50 million bushels. Oats
exports are lowered 1 million bushels, based on the pace of sales and shipments to date. The seasonaverage sorghum farm price is raised 20 cents at the midpoint to $6.70 to $7.90 per bushel.
The barley farm price is projected down 5 cents at the midpoint to $6.10 to $6.70 per bushel on lower reported prices for malting barley. The projected oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.60 to $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting the
larger U.S. corn crop and increased corn production for South America. Paraguay corn production is raised 1.1 million tons on a higher projected yield, which is in line with historical yield and production revisions this month. Brazil corn production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher expected yields with favorable December rainfall across the southern growing areas. Argentina corn production is raised 0.5 million tons as lower harvested area is more than offset by higher expected yields. Heavy rains and flooding in November and December delayed planting and reduced area prospects. Since then, clearing weather, the absence of threatening heat, and abundant soil moisture have set the stage for strong year-to-year yield increases, particularly in the central growing region.