LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month on lower beef, pork and turkey production.
Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower than expected. The lower second-quarter slaughter more than offsets higher forecast slaughter in the second half of the year.
The pork production forecast is reduced, largely on a reduction in fourth-quarter slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite a record number of pigs per litter in March-May, the pig crop for that period was only fractionally above year-earlier.
Turkey production is lowered as hatchery data points toward sharper declines in second-half production. The broiler production forecast is unchanged.
Egg production is raised on higher table and hatching egg production. For 2014, the red meat and poultry production forecast is higher based on larger pork production. Pork production increases are driven primarily by gains in pigs per liter as producers have indicated intentions to only gradually expand farrowings in the second half of 2013.
Beef and pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged. The beef import forecast is lowered for 2013 and 2014 due largely to expected tight supplies in Oceania. Pork imports are raised slightly for 2013 and 2014. Broiler and turkey exports for 2013 are raised on the current strength of trade. Forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.
The cattle price forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as prices have weakened recently. The 2014 price forecast is lowered for the first half of the year. Hog prices are raised as demand strength carries from 2013 into 2014, but price gains will be limited by higher production. Broiler prices are higher as strong demand is expected to support prices in 2014. Turkey prices are down slightly for 2013 while 2014 is unchanged. Egg prices are raised for 2013 on relatively strong demand.
The 2013 milk production forecast is raised from last month based on growth in milk production to date. The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month. Despite weaker forecast milk prices, forage supplies and feeding margins will likely continue to support modest gains in milk production.
The fat-basis import forecast for 2013 is unchanged, but lowered on a skim-solid basis reflecting slower-than-expected imports of milk protein concentrates. The 2013 fat-basis export forecast is higher on continued robust exports of cheese. Skim-solid exports for 2013 are higher as nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments are expected to remain strong. The United States has gained in export markets typically served by the European Union which has experienced a slowdown in production. Export forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.
Fat and skim-solid basis ending stock forecasts for 2013 are raised as stocks of butter and cheese have remained large. Ending stock forecasts for 2014 are raised as well.
Cheese and butter prices are forecast lower for 2013 on larger supplies. Prices for 2014 are lowered as the larger carry-in stocks overhang the market. The 2013 NDM price forecast is raised from last month on strong export demand, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. The whey price forecasts for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. The Class III price forecasts are lowered from last month in line with lower product prices.
The Class IV price forecast is unchanged for 2013 as lower butter prices are largely offset by higher NDM prices. However, the Class IV price is lowered for 2014, reflecting lower butter prices. The 2013 all milk price is forecast at $19.50 to $19.80 and the price for 2014 is $18.70 to $19.70 per cwt.