Jerry Gulke overviews what USDA released in this month’s round of major crop reports, as well as what they should have said.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports released on June 12 by USDA generated more questions than answers.
USDA did acknowledge this spring’s challenging planting season will decrease the size of the corn crop, but just barely. Projected corn production was lowered 135 million bushels to 14 billion, with the average yield projected at 156.5 bu. per acre, down 1.5 bushels from May.
But, USDA did not reduce corn acreage estimates. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, said I the past USDA has changed acreage estimates when planting issues were obvious. "I don’t know how you could get more obvious than what is going on in North Dakota and Iowa, but they were reluctant to do anything with acres."
On June 28, USDA will release its Acreage report. While the report is not released until the end of the month, Gulke says USDA is polling farmers now. "I guess they are waiting for their formal survey that will come out on June 28 to change acreage estimates."
Hear Gulke's full audio analysis:
Gulke says the bottom line with this round of report is – USDA didn’t change much.
"We ended up in a situation that wasn’t so much about what was said, it was what wasn’t said," he says. "You couple that with the weather, and the market retreated from where it was."
Gulke says the markets looks tired. "I view these markets as somebody climbing a hill. Pretty soon if you don’t feed the guy good news every time he makes another step, he doesn’t quite make it to the top. And then, he kind of gives up."
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For More Information
Read more coverage and analysis from the June 12 reports:
USDA Notes Weather Concerns as it Raises Prices
USDA tightened the U.S. supply-and-demand outlook for both old- and new-crop corn but left the soybean numbers pretty much unchanged.
Why We Should Just Throw Out this USDA Report by Ted Seifried