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Will Early Planting Change the Marketing Year?

April 6, 2012
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
planter
  
 
 

 

Planting has definitely been on many farmers’ minds throughout the Midwest, with recent record-warm weather. In fact, some farmers have already planted corn in states such as Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas. (See which states have planted corn this spring with AgWeb's Corn Planting Map.)
 
With the potential for an early crop, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the market is asking questions like: Will early planting equal more bushels? What could these extra bushels mean for grain prices?
 
"Conventional wisdom is if we can harvest any day sooner than normal that will bring bushels into play earlier," he says.
 
Gulke says ethanol plants and other end users, even as far north as North Dakota, are providing incentives for farmers to plant earlier. He knows of one ethanol plant that is offering around 70 cents extra per bushel for a September corn delivery as opposed to October.
 
"We’re seeing that throughout the country."
 
Even though the vast majority of the 2012 crop is not even in the ground, Gulke says experts are already factoring in the possibility of an extra 100 to 150 million bushels of 2012 corn.

 

Finding the Right Acreage Mix

With its March 30 reports,U SDA forecasted U.S. farmers will plant 95.9 million acres of corn, 73.9 million acres of soybeans and 55.9 million acres of wheat.
 
Gulke believes those acreage numbers will not be the same as what is harvested this fall.
 
In doing his own calculations, he figures right now he can make $110/acre more profit in planting soybeans than corn. He figured
180 bu. corn and 55 bu. beans, all on custom planting and harvest.
 
"So we transferred over 20% of our crop. I think others are making the same change."
 
Switching more acres to soybeans will be good for the market, he says. "I think we need 2 million acres more of soybeans than USDA says we’re going to plant just so we don’t run out of soybeans next year."
 
Listen to Gulke’s full audio analysis:

 

 

For More Information
Check grain prices at AgWeb ’s Market Center.

 


 

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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Soybeans, Marketing, Crops, Analysis

 

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