Sep 22, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew,

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.


Soybean Rout Continues

Feb 11, 2013

 Soybean futures pushed lower overnight giving up 20 cents a bushel adding to the losses from Friday’s sell-off. Corn and wheat prices were off 3 cents a bushel.

Although Friday’s USDA report was hardly bearish on the data alone, the soybean market turned decisively bearish following its release as conditions in South America continue to improve.  The latest forecasts show Brazil having drier weather in the 6- to 10-day day outlook which should help early harvest beans. Furthermore, Argentina, which has been persistently hot and dry in recent weeks, is expected to see widespread rains.  With China on holiday for the week, it will be interesting to see whether they are a big buyer of US beans or South American beans on their return to business.

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In corn, prices continue to grind lower as demand side prospects seem grim even with tight old-crop ending stocks.  The Renewable Fuels Association reported 20 of the nation's 211 ethanol plants have ceased production over the past year, including five in January. Most remain open, with workers spending time performing maintenance-type tasks. But ethanol production won't likely resume until after 2013 corn is harvested in late August or September.  On Friday, USDA left their corn used for ethanol unchanged at 4,500 MB even though it appears overall production is lagging the number needed to reach USDA’s projection.

Nearby wheat continues to hold above the $7.50 area of support even as other grains have taken out their key support of recent weeks.  USDA cut US ending stocks thanks to an improvement in feed use numbers. But, export numbers were left unchanged which could lead to future revisions as poor exports are showing limited signs of improving. In the Plains, weekend moisture in Oklahoma and Kansas was disappointing as a storm system produced only about a 0.10 inch of precipitation in key growing areas. The next chance for precipitation is on Tuesday as snow and sleet are expected over the region. 

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