Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
As with all markets, "fundamentals" will eventually win out!!
Apr 02, 2013
"FUNDAMENTALLY" we should NOT be trading at these levels, BUT WE ARE!!! As with all markets, "fundamentals" will eventually win out... but "WHEN" is the question??? Conventional wisdom and fundamental reasoning have cost many investors millions as they have been trying to short the US Stock and Bond markets the past several years. With the monetary base per dollar of nominal GDP at record highs, and the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP trading at extremes... "FUNDAMENTALLY" we should NOT be trading at these levels, BUT WE ARE!!! Similarly in the Ag markets, "money-flow" is responding much differently now than in years past. Traditional supply and demand wisdom doesn't always win out immediately and the markets interpretation doesn't always make sense. Point is, be careful beating on what appears to be a "sure thing." Yes, the recent USDA numbers will make it harder for prices on the board to rally, but lack of "REAL" supply may ultimately tell a different story. Remember, as producers we are trying to be the best "Risk Managers" we can be. Leave predicting overall market direction to those who prefer to gamble. Continue mitigating risk and you will have a successful operation!
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