The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean traders are somewhat confused by the recent "bird flu" outbreak in China. The latest word on the street is that the H7N9 virus has actually mutated and it can now spread more easily to other animals. Talk is the virus can somehow move through poultry without making them sick. This has the trade extremely nervous, as does the term "pandemic," which is starting to be thrown around a little in the headlines. The soybean bulls are worried that if something happens to the hog herd there will certainly be less demand for soymeal and other feed stock. Pigs are a particular concern because bird and human flu viruses can mingle there, similar to what happened in 2009 with the "swine flu." There is also some concern as the Chinese consumers ease back their pork and poultry demand. Technically I have to believe near-term the NOV13 contract will test support at the July low of $12.25^2.
I am confident once the "bird flu" headlines subside, and or we start to see more renewed soy buying interest out of China, prices will actually rebound for a brief period. Producers who need to get more bushels priced need to be looking for this window of opportunity...it might be one of the last in new-crop for several weeks.
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