Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
CORN Market: Another Limit Move Monday??
May 04, 2013
Cold temps, abnormal snow fall, and more moisture (flooding in many areas) continues to rally the corn market. The fear is obviously Sunday night and the extended forecast being wetter. That coupled with the likelihood of the USDA showing the slowest start to the US corn crop in modern history, has the bears nervous and the bulls optimistic about further price appreciation. I wanted to share an interesting read I received from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). From what I can gather, it was written Jim Lee and it’s titled Snow in May?
According to data from the State Climatologist office snow has fallen in May 59 of the last 125 years, in Iowa, or in other words 47% of the time, but interestingly it has only occurred in five of the last 20 years. Most of these events have been characterized by isolated flurries with trace amounts at only a couple of reporting stations. this most recently occurred in 2011 when a race of snow was reported May 1 at Forest City and May 4 at Lansing. The last measurable May snow reported in Iowa fell on May 1-2, back in 2005. Events also occurred on May1, 1997 and on May 5-6, 1989. I should point out that snowfall events producing multiple inches of accumulation are exceedingly rare in Iowa in May, having occurred in only ten years according to the research of this author. In fact no station has reported an inch or more of accumulated snowfall in Iowa in May since 1967.
Here is a list of the five events producing the highest May snowfall accumulations on record in Iowa:
1882 - Snow fell on May 12 (across southeastern Iowa, with about an inch at Iowa City) and then again on May 23. On the latter date about the southeastern quarter of Iowa received snowfall, with around half an inch at Des Moines and up to 4-6" at Washington.
1907 - Spring was very cold and backward at least partially due to the large eruption of the volcano Ksudach in eastern Russia. Snow fell across all of Iowa (and the Midwest) on May 3, with amounts ranging up to 1.2" at Des Moines and 1.5" at Atlantic and Corning. Another statewide snow fell on May 15 that was light in most areas but amounted to 5" at Rock Rapids.
1945 - Snow fell across the northwestern half of Iowa on May 9-10 with most of the area reporting measurable snowfall. Amounts ranged up to an amazing 8" at Denison.
1947 - One of the most remarkable weather events in Iowa history occurred when snow fell across most of the state on May 28, with measurable snow across the north and west ranging up to an incredible 10" at Le Mars. This is the latest spring snowfall on record in Iowa and also the highest amount ever recorded in the month of May.
1967 - Snow fell across about the southern half of Iowa on May 3, with amounts ranging up to an amazing 8" at Glenwood.
Bottom-line, this is truly a "weather" market!
Saturday morning is showing substantial rains from central Illinois down through parts of Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Florida.