Sep 22, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

What We See for Corn and Beans This Week...

Aug 30, 2014

Corn will continue to suffer from its curse of "no new news" outside the fact that the world is about to be swimming in corn. The one thing I keep reminding myself is the fact we have never produced a yield over 160 bushel per acre when we have planted over 90 million acres. But then again, when was the last time we have seen weather like this for such a large portion of the Belt? Technically the $3.58 level is still providing nearby support but many in the trade are worried about longer-term price depreciation deeper into the US harvest. Producers should continue to take advantage of the rallies when they present themselves. Reduce your risk to only those bushels you are comfortable storing and or carrying for the proverbial "long haul." I continue to worry that the bears at-bat could extend further than some producer's credit-line.  CLICK HERE for my daily report...

Soybean bulls will be pointing to strong demand and limited old-crop supplies but how long will this scenario be able to hold up price? First notice day for theSEPT14 contract was yesterday (Friday 8/29) meaning the old-crop story may officially be out of ammunition. I suspect between now and the upcoming Sept 11th USDA report the trade will begin to take on a more "wait-and-see" type approach. In return I'm thinking the new-crop NOV14 contract trades in a narrower range somewhere between $10.00 and $10.60 per bushel. Longer-term I'm still extremely concerned about excessive supplies.  Not only might new-crop ending stocks jump beyond 500 million, but it looks like many US farmers are talking about planting even more soybean acres in 2015. Near-term I continue to look for the $10.05 area to provide some type of "technical" support...longer-term however, I still can't rule out the $8.50 to $9.50 range. Wish I had more positive news, unfortunately there's just very little out there to stop the bleeding. Keep ALL hedges in place!  CLICK HERE for my daily report...

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