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EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 7/20/09

Jul 20, 2009
 
SETTLEMENTS 7/20
         
 
Sep 09 Corn
323 ¾  
+ 1 ½ 
Dec 09 Corn
334
+ 2 ½ 
Aug 09 Beans
1032 
+ 22 ½  
Nov 09 Beans
920 ¾  
- 2 ¾  
Sep 09 Wheat
542 ¼  
+ ½
Sep 09 KC Wheat
571
+ 4 ½ 
Sep 09 Min Wheat
612 
- 4 ¼ 
Dec 09 Meal
275.5
- 3.2
Dec 09 Oil
35.91
+ 0.39
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
·       




  • Corn good to excellent conditions remain unchanged at 71% vs. 65% yr ago
  •   Beans good to excellent conditions 1% higher at 67% vs. 61% yr ago
 
The grain markets closed mixed to positive in today’s session. Corn managed to close slightly higher after trading on both sides of unchanged. Fundamentals remain weak and will continue to do so unless the weather changes drastically. Cooler temperatures and rainfall projected across large portions of the Midwest are making conditions nearly ideal for corn development. Much of the corn planted on time should make it through pollination under these conditions. The later planted corn could still see hot dry conditions, but until the forecast reflects this change corn rallies look to be a function of short covering rather than bullish buying. In fact, we are now reading many estimates for record yields close to 160 bu/ac vs. the current USDA projection of 153.4 bu/ac. Regardless of the final yield, the thought is for a higher figure. Now if corn can manage to rally towards and above the $3.50 mark in December futures this appears to be an area to sell. While futures price sentiment for corn remains bearish, one positive note is that basis levels should remain firm until harvest begins, thanks to the lack of selling. Farmer selling has nearly dried up on this last price break, yet old crop corn still sitting unpriced in bins across the country will need to be moved ahead of fall harvest. Today’s bean complex market was yet again very interesting as traders resumed the bull spreads. It seems that China (or industry news) cannot make up their mind on whether they need to buy more old crop beans or sell reserves. While we cannot control or predict what China will do to affect old/new crop spreads, we are still looking for new crop sales on price rallies. The main factor behind this is number of planted acres and current yield outlooks. Meanwhile, wheat remains mixed in a two-sided trade. Today’s crop conditions report did not show any significant surprises; therefore tomorrow’s trade looks to be a follower of outside market indicators. 
 
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.
 
 
 
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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

Anonymous
Ive heard its around $7.00 an acre for tech fees. Not too bad on some 80millacres corn and some 78 mill acres soybeans. 158 million times $7.00. Year after year after year. The crop legally isnt farmers for seed of course. In my area they are paying over $2.00 a bushel over Chicago board price for non-gmo soybeans. It seems like our soybean yields havent really gained much after gmos took over. I wish one year someone would pay me a $100.00 for every 35,000 kernels of corn I produced. Just some thoughts.
11:07 PM Jul 20th
 
Anonymous
Bean yeild will be lucky to average 35 around here. Corn could make 153 average if we have ideal conditions. As 8:15 says wet corn late harvest high cost the corprate price gougers are in town. I think we should look really hard at not buying anything from any large corp that has to much control on price fixing. Maybe plant non gm corn and beans let them grow up in weeds so everyone can share in the riches. Replant corn and beans paid tech fees twice kinda like double taxation. If there product is so good why won't they stand behind it.
10:29 PM Jul 20th
 

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