Aug 2, 2014
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Farmland Forecast

RSS By: Marc Schober, AgWeb.com

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

USDA Weekly Exports: Wheat Sales Increase to Highest Level of the Year

Jul 31, 2014

Fluctuating weather forecasts have kept the market on its toes as both corn and soybeans begin to enter crucial stages in their development where precipitation is very important. The six to ten day weather forecast has fluctuated from below average precipitation expectations to above average as farmers anxiously wait for rain. Despite earlier flooding, many areas are in need of some precipitation with many farmers reporting low sub-soil moisture levels.


Wheat sales increased significantly over the past week, reaching their highest mark since October 2013. Corn and soybean sales declined. Exports fell for corn, soybeans, and wheat, the first time that has happened since the beginning of June.

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending July 24th in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 173,800 metrics tons (MT), a marketing year low. Corn sales saw a 40% decrease from the previous week, and a 57% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Peru, Canada, and Morocco. Decreases were reported from Japan, China, unknown destinations and Ireland. Exports were 865,500 MT, a 12% decrease from the prior week and a 21% decrease from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Saudi, Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, and Panama.

Weekly net soybean sales in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 187,400 MT, a 17% decrease from the previous week, but a 66% increase from the 10 week average. Increases were reported from China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Colombia, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations. Exports were 105,400 MT, a 35% decrease from the prior week and a 27% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand.

Weekly net wheat sales for the week ending July 17th in the 2014/2015 marketing year were 801,000 MT, an 81% increase from the previous week and a 150% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Nigeria, Panama, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines. Decreases were reported from the French West Indies. Exports were 419,600 MT a 24% decrease from the prior week and a 10% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Guatemala, South Korea, and China.

7 31 14 Sales
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

7 31 14 Exports
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/
 

Crop Progress: Drier Forecasts May Damage Soybean Potential

Jul 28, 2014

Weather forecasts into August call for below average precipitation in soybean growing areas, and have driven up soybean prices in the last few days. August rainfall is essential for strong soybean yields, and despite the rain that fell over much of the Midwest in June, farmers in some areas are expressing concerns of fields being dry. USDA officials and Chinese regulators came to a head over the continued delay of MIR-162 clearance in China. Chinese demands were explained as "Unreasonable" and "Undoable" by the USDA, after the Chinese demanded none of the trait being found in any corn or DDG shipments sampled. Currently the agreement allows for very small amounts of Syngenta MIR-162 trait to be present in shipments.

The USDA corn conditions were estimated 75% in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, down 1% from last week, but a 12% increase from last year. 19% was considered "Fair" unchanged from last week, while only 6% was considered "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the Corn Belt states, Illinois had the most corn rated "Excellent" at 30%, followed by Iowa and Indiana with 26% and 23% respectively. Corn silking was reported at 78%, a 22% increase from last week, and 3% ahead of the five-year average. Corn in the dough stage was estimated for the first time this week. The USDA estimated 17% of corn had reached the doughing stage, 1% ahead of the five-year average and 9% ahead of this time last year.

Soybean conditions were reported with 71% of the crop in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, down 2% from last week, but an 8% increase from last year. 23% was reported in "Fair" condition, a 1% increase from the previous week, while only 6% was reported as "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the five largest soybean producing states, Illinois had the most crop rated "Excellent" with 22%, followed by Iowa with 20%. Soybeans blooming were reported at 76% this week, up 16% from last week, and 4% ahead of the five-year average. 84% of Indiana’s soybean crop has bloomed, 15% ahead of their five-year average the largest margin of the five top soybean producing states. Soybeans setting pods were reported at 38%, a 19% increase from last week and 7% ahead of the five-year average.

The winter wheat crop was reported 83% harvested, up 8% from last week, and 3% ahead of the five-year average. The majority of the southern winter wheat growing areas are completed or near completion with harvest, while harvests in Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota still have many acres to be completed.

September futures for corn closed the week at $3.67 per bushel, a 0.8% increase from last week. August soybeans ended the week at $12.36, a 5.2% increase from last week. September wheat ended the week at $5.34, a 0.8% increase from last week. Year-to-year corn prices are down 24.9%, soybeans are down 9.6%, and wheat is down 18%.

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

USDA Weekly Exports: High Temperatures may put Pressure on Soybean Conditions

Jul 24, 2014

 Forecasts for the coming weeks suggest above average temperatures and below average rainfall. Following crop condition reports that are at their best levels since 1994, the weather could put significant pressure on soybean conditions as they enter their pollination stage. Grain prices have fallen significantly in the past few months due to potentially record breaking production from both corn and soybeans this year.

 

Exports were up for corn, soybeans, and wheat last week. Soybean exports have increased the last two weeks and wheat exports have increased the last three. Soybean and wheat sales also increased, while corn sales decreased.

 

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending July 17th in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 291,500 metrics tons (MT), a 49% decrease from the previous week, and a 29% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, Spain, South Korea, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Canada. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations and China. Exports were 992,500 MT, a 9% increase from the prior week and a 9% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Egypt, Spain, and Costa Rica.

 

Weekly net soybean sales in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 226,700 MT, a significant increase from the previous week and the 10 week average. Increases were reported from China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Japan. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations and Mexico. Exports were 162,700 MT, a 72% increase from the prior week and a 5% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Japan, and Mexico.

 

Weekly net wheat sales for the week ending July 17th in the 2014/2015 marketing year were 443,200 MT, a 38% increase from the previous week and a 57% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, Nigeria, Singapore, Brazil, Vietnam, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from the Philippines, unknown destinations, and Panama. Exports were 551,700 MT a 32% increase from the prior week and a 16% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Brazil Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico Japan, and Singapore.

7 24 14 Sales

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

7 24 14 Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

Crop Progress: Temperatures Rise as Pollination gets into Full Swing

Jul 21, 2014

Warmer weather is forecasted for this week with highs to be above average throughout the Corn Belt which is conducive to corn pollination. The heavy rain seen in the northern corn belt has left many concerned about nitrogen leaching. Some farmers reapplied nutrients if they were able to get in the field. As a result of leaching, corn has been reported stunted in some areas.

The USDA estimated corn conditions were 76% in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, unchanged from the previous week, but a 13% increase from last year. 19% was considered "Fair," unchanged from last week, while only 5% was considered "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the Corn Belt states, Illinois had the most corn rated "Excellent" at 29%, up 1% from last week, followed by Iowa and Nebraska with 25% and 24%. Corn was reported 56% silked, a 22% increase from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Northern corn producing states are well behind their five-year average due to the planting delay they experienced this spring.

Soybean conditions were reported with 73% of the crop in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, up 1% from last week, and a 9% increase from last year. 22% was reported in "Fair" condition, unchanged from the previous week, while only 5% was reported as "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the five largest soybean producing states, Illinois had the most crop rated "Excellent" at 21%, followed by Iowa with 20%. Soybeans blooming were reported at 60% this week, up 19% from last week, and 4% ahead of the five-year average. 70% of Indiana’s soybean crop has bloomed, 1% ahead of Illinois. Soybeans setting pods were reported for the first time this week. The USDA estimates pods on 19% of the soybeans, 12% ahead of last year and 2% ahead of the five-year average. Indiana and Nebraska are over double their five-year average with 32% of the plants showing pods.

The winter wheat crop was reported 75% harvested, up 6% from last week, and even with the five-year average. Many of the southern wheat producing states are near completion with this year's wheat harvest, while northern wheat producing states like Nebraska and South Dakota are well behind due to rain that has slowed or prevented the harvest.

September futures for corn closed the week at $3.64 per bushel, down 4.5% from last week. August soybeans ended the week at $11.75, down 1.8% from last week. September wheat ended the week at $5.30, down 1.3% from last week. Year-to-year corn prices are down 32.6%, soybeans are down 22.7%, and wheat is down 19.6%.

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

Crop Progress: Forecasts Show Excellent Weather for Pollination

Jul 14, 2014

Temperatures are expected to cool down this week across much of the Corn Belt. Below average temperatures and high humidity will help the corn crop as it enters the pollination stage. The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released by the USDA last Friday decreased their overall production estimate due to the flooding that occurred across Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Southern Minnesota during June. An estimated 383,000 acres were destroyed and another two million were damaged in Iowa and Illinois alone.

The USDA corn conditions were estimated 76% in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, up 1% from the previous week, and a 10% increase from last year. 19% was considered "Fair" down 1% from last week, while only 5% was considered "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the Corn Belt states, Illinois had the most corn rated "Excellent" at 28%, followed by Iowa and Nebraska with 23% and 22%. Corn was reported 34% silked, a 19% increase from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Minnesota is well behind with only 5% of its corn in the silking stage, opposed to the five-year average of 20%.

Soybean conditions were reported with 72% of the crop in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, unchanged from last week, but a 7% increase from last year. 22% was reported in "Fair" condition, a 1% decrease from the previous week, while only 6% was reported as "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the five largest soybean producing states, Illinois and Iowa had the most crop rated "Excellent" both with 20%. Soybeans blooming were reported at 41% this week, up 17% from last week, and 4% ahead of the five-year average. 55% of Indiana’s soybean crop has bloomed, 20% above their five-year average.

The winter wheat crop was reported 69% harvested, up 12% from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Many of the southern wheat producing states are near completion with this years wheat harvest, while northern wheat producing states like Nebraska and South Dakota are well behind due to rain that has slowed or prevented the harvest.

September futures for corn closed the week at $3.81 per bushel. August soybeans ended the week at $11.97, and September wheat ended the week at $5.37. Year-to-year corn prices are down 28.9%, soybeans are down 17.6%, and wheat is down 19.7%.

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

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