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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report for 7/11/14

Jul 11, 2014

  

Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free

 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

 


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

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OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.1 million tons, up 5.0 million tons with higher soybean production accounting for most of the change.  Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 3.6 million above the June forecast.  The soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.  Soybean supplies are 180 million bushels above last month’s forecast due to higher beginning stocks and production.  Soybean crush is projected at 1,755 million bushels, up 40 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2013/14 and higher U.S. soybean meal exports that offset lower projected exports for India.  Soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 50 million bushels to 1,675 million reflecting record U.S. supplies and lower prices.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 415 million bushels, up 90 million.  If realized, projected stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.
 
Prices for soybeans and products for 2014/15 are all reduced.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 36 to 40 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
 
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 521.9 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month with soybeans and rapeseed accounting for most of the change.  Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States.  Higher soybean production is also projected for Russia and Ukraine, both reflecting higher harvested area.  Lower soybean production for India resulting from reduced harvested area partly offsets these gains.  Harvested area is reduced based on planting delays resulting from the slow development of the monsoon in the main soybean producing states.  Rapeseed production is raised for Canada based on higher planted area reported by Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is also raised for Australia on higher area and yield.  Global oilseed ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.7 million tons, up 3.6 million mostly reflecting a sharp increase in U.S. soybean stocks.
 
U.S. soybean crush for 2013/14 is raised 25 million bushels to 1,725 million on both increased soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal use.  Soybean exports for 2013/14 are projected at 1,620 million bushels, up 20 million reflecting record shipments through early July.  Seed use is raised and residual is reduced based on indications from the June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, respectively.  Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 140 million bushels, up 15 million.
 
COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised with increases for corn and sorghum beginning stocks and higher expected sorghum production.  Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre.  Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July.  At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record.    
 
Corn use changes for 2014/15 are limited to a 50-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on the lower production projection and higher projected sorghum feed and residual use.  Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, exports, and ending stocks are also raised for 2014/15 with sorghum production projected up 50 million bushels on the higher area reported in the Acreage report.  Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the small acreage-driven decline in production.  The projected range for the season-average corn price is lowered 20 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel.  Lower farm prices are also projected for sorghum, barley, and oats.
 
A number of 2013/14 feed grain supply and use changes are made this month reflecting June 1 stocks estimates from the June 30 Grain Stocks and based on final marketing-year barley and oats trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Projected corn feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels based on lower-than-expected March-May disappearance as indicated by the June 1 stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date and lower projected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, most of which is for ethanol.  Sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels reflecting continued steady export sales and the large 2013/14 outstanding sales balance.  Projected 2013/14 farm prices for corn and sorghum are lowered this month as favorable weather for developing 2014 crops reduce summer price prospects.
 
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 7.0 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China and larger production for China, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia.  Lower corn production for the United States and lower corn, barley, and oats production for Canada partly offset this month’s increases in world coarse grain output.  World barley production is higher with larger crops expected in Ukraine and Russia.  Foreign corn production for 2014/15 is raised 1.7 million tons.  China corn production is up 2.0 million tons on higher expected area.  China 2013/14 corn production is also raised, up 0.8 million tons based on the latest government estimates that include higher area.  EU 2014/15 corn production is raised 0.4 million with larger crops expected in Germany and France.  Serbia corn production is also raised 0.3 million tons.  Partly offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction in Canada corn reflecting the lower planted area recently reported by Statistics Canada.  Brazil corn production is unchanged for 2014/15, but raised 2.0 million tons for 2013/14 based on higher area indications for second crop corn.
 
Global 2014/15 corn trade is nearly unchanged with a reduction for Canada exports partly offset by an increase for Serbia.  For 2013/14, world corn trade is raised with higher imports for the EU and South Korea more than offsetting a reduction for China.  Corn exports for 2013/14 are raised for Canada, the EU, and Russia.  Global corn consumption is lowered slightly for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 mostly reflecting the lower U.S. feed and residual use projections. Global 2014/15 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons higher with increases for China, Brazil, and the United States more than offsetting the Canada reduction.
 
 
WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised this month with a sharp increase in forecast Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat more than offsetting a decrease for Hard Red Winter (HRW).  The HRW crop was damaged by drought and April freezes in the Southern and Central plains; however, the HRS crop in the Northern Plains has benefitted from abundant soil moisture and cooler than normal early summer temperatures.  Yields for Durum and other spring wheat are forecast to be above average.  Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2014/15 is lowered 15 million bushels to 145 million as tight supplies of HRW wheat and relatively more attractive prices for feed grains reduce expected feed and residual use.  All wheat exports for 2014/15 are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting expectations of large world supplies and strong competition in export markets.  Ending stocks are projected 86 million bushels higher.  The projected season-average farm price range is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $6.00 to $7.20 per bushel.  
 
Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 1.8 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks.  World production is raised 3.6 million tons to 705.2 million.  This is down 9.0 million tons from last year but still the second largest production on record.  The biggest foreign increases are 1.6 million tons for the EU and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine both due to continued favorable weather.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Australia based on the latest government indications for area.  Production is also raised 0.3 million tons each for Brazil and Serbia.  Partly offsetting this month’s production increases is a reduction of 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan due to June dryness and a decline of 0.5 million tons for Canada based on the latest area indications from Statistics Canada.
 
Global wheat consumption is raised 0.9 million tons with increased wheat feeding for the EU and higher food use for several countries.  EU wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons as wheat quality is expected to suffer in the lower Danube region because of excessive rainfall in recent weeks.  Feeding reductions for Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Thailand are partly offsetting.  Food use is raised for Indonesia, Sudan, Morocco, and Bangladesh but lowered for Egypt.  Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is lowered with exports reduced 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan and 0.7 million for the United States.  Partly offsetting increases in exports are made for Australia, Ukraine, and Serbia with improved crop prospects.  EU imports are lowered 0.5 million tons due in part to larger expected supplies of feed quality wheat in Bulgaria and Romania.  Imports are also lowered for Egypt and Mexico, but raised for Sudan, Indonesia, and Nigeria.  With supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons and remain at a 3-year high.
 
 
RICE:  U.S. all rice supplies in 2014/15 are raised 12.5 million cwt or nearly 5 percent to 279.8 million, the highest since 2010/11, as beginning stocks and production are raised 0.5 million and 13.0 million, respectively.  Conversely, the import forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 21.0 million.  All rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 226.0 million cwt, up 13.0 million or 6 percent due entirely to an increase in area.  All rice average yield is estimated at 7,469 pounds per acre, nearly the same as last month, but 3 percent below record 2013/14.  All rice total use for 2014/15 is raised 10.0 million cwt or 4 percent to 240.0 million, the highest since 2010/11, as domestic and residual use and exports are each increased 5.0 million to 133.0 million and 107.0 million, respectively.  Ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 39.8 million cwt, up 2.5 million.
 
Changes to U.S. 2013/14 rice supply and use include larger imports, lower domestic and residual use, larger exports, and higher ending stocks.  All rice imports for 2013/14 are forecast at 23.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month, due mostly to an unexpectedly large May shipment of broken rice from Thailand reported by the Bureau of the Census.  Domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 123.0 million based largely on NASS’ Rice Stocks report showing larger than expected stocks as of June 1.  Exports for 2013/14 are raised 1.5 million cwt to 93.5 million based on data from the Bureau of the Census through May and data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report through early July.
 
The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, down 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.  The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down $1.20 per cwt from a month ago.  The 2014/15 all rice price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, down 90 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.  Larger domestic supplies of both long-grain rice and medium-grain rice along with plentiful supplies among most of the major global exporters will exert downward pressure on prices.
 
Global 2014/15 rice supplies are reduced due to both lower beginning stocks and production.  Beginning stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.6 million tons due chiefly to reductions for China and the Philippines, partially offset by an increase for Vietnam.  Global production is projected at a record 479.4 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month owing mostly to a decrease in India, partially offset by increases for Vietnam and the United States.  India’s 2014/15 rice crop is projected at 104.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month attributed to the slow and erratic start to the Southwest Monsoon.  Global trade and consumption are changed little from a month ago.  U.S. 2014/15 exports are raised 160,000 tons from a month ago.  World ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 108.5 million tons, down 2.1 million from last month, and 3.0 million below the revised 2013/14 stocks forecast.  Ending stocks projections for 2014/15 are lowered for India, China, and the Philippines, partially offsetting increases for Brazil, Vietnam, and the United States.
 
 
SUGAR:  The Mexico 2013/14 estimate for sugar production is reduced by 75,000 metric tons (MT) to 6.025 million, based on very close to end-of-harvest reporting from Mexican authorities.  The 2013/14 estimate of exports is increased by 80,000 MT based on industry reporting of increased exports to non-U.S. destinations.  No other changes were made, implying ending stocks at 663,000 MT, for a low stocks-to-consumption ratio of 15.4 percent.  The Mexico 2014/15 forecast of production is lowered to 6.140 million MT based on expected reduced harvested area, and average sugar yields.  Imports are forecast to increase 224,000 MT to cover domestic consumption in that period before the harvest begins in late November.  Because consumption and ending stocks forecasts are unchanged, exports are forecast 291,000 MT lower at 1.616 million.  
 
The U.S. 2013/14 beet sugar production is lowered by 50,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.750 million, based on an expected slow start of 2014/15 harvesting in September.  Imports are increased by 89,000 STRV due to the reallocation of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) by USTR.  Total deliveries are increased by 90,000 STRV based on pace.  These events imply lower ending stocks, estimated at 1.808 million STRV with stocks-to-use at 14.5 percent.  The U.S. 2014/15 sugar production is forecast 130,000 STRV lower due to revised cane sugar processors’ forecasts.  Total production is forecast at 8.225 million STRV.  Imports from Mexico are reduced to 1.877 million STRV, down 234,000 STRV.  Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 50,000 STRV, based on modest growth from the previous year.  Ending stocks are forecast at 1.447 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.9 percent.
 
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is raised from last month.  Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights.  Pork production is lowered as USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slower-than-expected expansion in farrowings during the second quarter.  This implies lower than previously forecast hog slaughter later in the year, but strong hog prices and lower feed costs are expected to provide incentives to feed hogs to heavier weights.  No change was made to broiler production as the production expansion remains muted.  Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production. Egg production is raised on strong table egg prices and lower feed costs.  For 2015, beef and broiler production is forecast higher, but pork production is forecast lower.  Cattle slaughter is forecast higher in early 2015 based on 2014 placements.  Pork production is reduced as supplies of market hogs will remain relatively tight.  Broiler production is forecast higher as lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in production.
 
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong.  Exports for 2014 are raised on recent data.  Pork imports for 2014 are reduced slightly.  Despite high prices, pork exports remain robust and forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are raised.  Broiler and turkey exports are raised for 2014 based on May data, but forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month. 
 
Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2014 are raised from last month on the strength of demand.  Broiler price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on June price data, but the egg price is reduced.  The hog price forecast is raised for 2015 on expectations of tighter supplies and continued strong demand.  Prices for cattle, broilers, turkey, and eggs are unchanged at the midpoint for 2015.   
 
The milk production forecast for 2014 is lowered from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets a more rapid expansion in cow numbers.  The forecast for 2015 is raised as higher milk prices and lower feed costs are expected to support more rapid growth in cow numbers and output per cow.  Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered on a fat basis but raised on a skim-solids basis.  High domestic butter prices are expected to limit export opportunities, but nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) exports are expected to remain strong.  For 2015, no change is forecast to fat-basis exports, but strength in NDM/SMP sales will help support higher skim-solids exports.  
 
Product prices are forecast higher for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015.  Despite increased production, robust domestic demand and stronger NDM/SMP exports will support prices.  Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices and the Class IV price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in butter prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $23.25 to $23.55 per cwt for 2014, and $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.
 
COTTON:  The 2014/15 U.S. cotton forecasts show sharply higher production and ending stocks relative to last month.  Expected production is raised 1.5 million bales to 16.5 million due to larger planted area indicated in the June 30 Acreage report and lower expected abandonment based on favorable precipitation and improved crop conditions.  Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales due to expanding domestic mill capacity, while exports are raised 500,000 bales due to the larger available supply.  Despite the higher disappearance, ending stocks are raised to 5.2 million bales which, if realized, would be the largest since 2008/09.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 76 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 68 cents, a 5-year low.
 
A combination of higher estimated beginning stocks, higher production, and lower consumption raise projected 2014/15 global ending stocks by 3.0 million bales this month.  World beginning stocks are raised nearly 1.6 million bales due mainly to higher estimated 2013/14 production for Brazil and lower consumption for China and Pakistan.  China’s consumption is reduced 1.0 million bales for 2013/14 and 500,000 bales for 2014/15, as high domestic price levels and uncertainty about future policies have discouraged cotton use in textiles in favor of polyester.  However, China’s consumption is expected to grow nearly 6 percent in 2014/15 as a result of the announced elimination of government price supports.  For 2014/15, world production is raised 500,000 bales, as the forecast increase for the United States is partially offset by lower production for India, Australia, and Brazil.  Aggregate world trade is about unchanged from last month, but exports are raised for the United States, Australia, and Brazil and reduced for several other exporting countries.  World stocks for 2014/15 are now projected at 105.7 million bales.
 

 

 


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

 

Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

 

 

 

 $299.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $299.00 monthly

 

 

 

Howard Tyllas
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245 

Acreage Report 6/30/14

Jun 30, 2014

 Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free


 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

 


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

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 Acreage Report 6/30/14

Corn Planted Acreage Down 4 Percent from 2013
Soybean Acreage Up 11 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Up Less Than 1 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 9 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.6 million 
acres, down 4 percent from last year. This represents the lowest planted 
acreage in the United States since 2010; however, this is the fifth largest 
corn acreage in the United States since 1944.

Soybean planted area for 2014 is estimated at a record high 84.8 million 
acres, up 11 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 84.1 million acres, 
is up 11 percent from 2013 and will be a record high by more than 7.4 million 
acres, if realized. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Michigan, 
Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South 
Dakota, and Wisconsin.

All wheat planted area for 2014 is estimated at 56.5 million acres, up less 
than 1 percent from 2013. The 2014 winter wheat planted area, at 42.3 million 
acres, is down 2 percent from last year but up less than 1 percent from the 
previous estimate. Of this total, about 30.4 million acres are Hard Red 
Winter, 8.50 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.41 million acres are 
White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2014 is estimated at 
12.7 million acres, up 10 percent from 2013. Of this total, about 
12.0 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The intended Durum planted area 
for 2014 is estimated at 1.47 million acres, down slightly from the previous 
year.

All cotton planted area for 2014 is estimated at 11.4 million acres, 
9 percent above last year. Upland area is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up 
10 percent from 2013. American Pima area is estimated at 178,000 acres, down 
11 percent from 2013.


 

 


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

 

Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

 

 

 

 $299.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $299.00 monthly

 

 

 

Howard Tyllas 
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

Grain Stocks Report 6/30/14

Jun 30, 2014

 Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free


 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 

Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

 


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of My Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas 

 

Grain Stocks Report 6/30/14

 
Corn Stocks Up 39 Percent from June 2013
Soybean Stocks Down 7 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 18 Percent
 
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 3.85 billion bushels, up 
39 percent from June 1, 2013. Of the total stocks, 1.86 billion bushels are 
stored on farms, up 48 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 
1.99 billion bushels, are up 32 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2014 
indicated disappearance is 3.15 billion bushels, compared with 2.63 billion 
bushels during the same period last year.
 
Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 405 million bushels, 
down 7 percent from June 1, 2013. On-farm stocks totaled 109 million bushels, 
down 36 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 296 million bushels, are 
up 12 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the 
March - May 2014 quarter totaled 589 million bushels, up 4 percent from the 
same period a year earlier.
 
Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 
590 million bushels, down 18 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are 
estimated at 97.0 million bushels, down 19 percent from last year. Off-farm 
stocks, at 493 million bushels, are down 18 percent from a year ago. The 
March - May 2014 indicated disappearance is 467 million bushels, down 
10 percent from the same period a year earlier.
 
Old crop Durum wheat stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 
21.5 million bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 
12.8 million bushels, are down 6 percent from June 1, 2013. Off-farm stocks 
totaled 8.73 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. The 
March - May 2014 indicated disappearance of 16.6 million bushels is down 
15 percent from the same period a year earlier.
 
Old crop barley stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 82.0 million 
bushels, up 2 percent from June 1, 2013. On-farm stocks are estimated at 
19.1 million bushels, 21 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 
62.9 million bushels, are 3 percent below June 1, 2013. The March - May 2014 
indicated disappearance is 39.5 million bushels, 8 percent above the same 
period a year earlier.
 
Old crop oats stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 24.7 million 
bushels, 32 percent below the stocks on June 1, 2013. Of the total stocks on 
hand, 9.71 million bushels are stored on farms, 15 percent lower than a year 
ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 15.0 million bushels, 40 percent below the 
previous year. Indicated disappearance during March - May 2014 totaled 
10.4 million bushels, compared with 16.3 million bushels during the same 
period a year ago.
 
Grain sorghum stored in all positions on June 1, 2014 totaled 92.3 million 
bushels, up 125 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 4.50 million 
bushels, are up 66 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 87.8 million 
bushels, are up 129 percent from June 1, 2013. The March - May 2014 indicated 
disappearance from all positions is 83.4 million bushels, up 65 percent from 
the same period last year.

 

 

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

 


The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

 

Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

 

 

 

 $299.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $299.00 monthly

 

 

 

Howard Tyllas
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245 

WASDE REPORT 6/11/14

Jun 11, 2014

 Sign up: Learn a better way to hedge for free


 
Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

 


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.
Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

 

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WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are lowered this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by a reduction in forecast winter wheat production.  Beginning stocks are raised with a 10-million-bushel reduction in 2013/14 food use and offsetting 5-million-bushel reductions in 2013/14 imports and exports.  Projected production for 2014/15 is down 21 million bushels as reduced prospects for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and White Winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest more than outweigh higher forecast Soft Red Winter wheat production across the South and Midwest.  Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels for 2014/15 and for 2013/14.  This month’s reduced outlook for food use assumes a higher flour extraction rate for both marketing years.  Exports for 2014/15 are projected 25 million bushels lower with tighter supplies of HRW wheat and stronger competition from major exporters.  Projected ending stocks are raised 34 million bushels.  The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 30 cents on both ends to $6.35 to $7.65 per bushel based on the larger expected carryout, higher global production, and recent sharp declines in futures prices.


Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 4.1 million tons as a 5.2-million-ton increase in foreign production is only partly offset by a 0.8-million-ton reduction in foreign beginning stocks and this month’s lower U.S. production outlook.  Beginning stocks are lowered for Australia, Russia, and Turkey with increases in 2013/14 exports this month.  World production for 2014/15 is projected at 701.6 million tons, up 4.6 million from last month with increases for India, the European Union, China, and Russia more than offsetting the decline in U.S. output.  India production is raised 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimate.  European Union production is raised 1.4 million tons as spring and early summer rainfall support higher yield outlooks for France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.  Production for China and Russia is raised 1.0 million tons each as favorable growing conditions also support higher expected yields.  



Global wheat trade and consumption for 2014/15 are raised with larger foreign supplies.  Trade and consumption are also raised for 2013/14.  Increases in world imports and exports for 2014/15 are relatively small, but world consumption is raised 2.9 million tons with increased feeding expected in China and the European Union and increased food use projected for India, all supported by larger crops.  Exports for 2014/15 are raised 0.5 million tons each for the European Union and Russia, more than offsetting this month’s reduction in U.S. export prospects.  World ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 1.2 million tons higher with much of the increase in the United States.  At 188.6 million tons, global stocks are up 2.6 million year-to-year.


COARSE GRAINS:  The outlook for 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged this month with only small changes made to barley and oats imports and exports for 2013/14.  Other feed grain balance sheet items are unchanged for both marketing years.  Projected corn production for 2014/15 is unchanged at a record 13,935 million bushels.  The projected U.S. corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre as a slightly slower-than-normal mid-May planting progress is expected to be offset by very favorable early season crop and weather conditions.  U.S. crop conditions in the most recent Crop Progress report are the best in 4 years for the aggregated 18 reported states and better than any time since 2007 for the Corn Belt.  The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel and below this month’s lower projected 2013/14 range of $4.45 to $4.65 per bushel.  The 2013/14 price range is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint based on prices reported to date and the recent decline in nearby cash and futures prices. 


Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 2.3 million tons higher mostly with larger corn beginning stocks and production.  Higher 2013/14 corn production for Brazil and India raise 2014/15 beginning stocks for both countries.  Lower 2013/14 corn exports for Argentina also add to 2014/15 beginning stocks.  Higher 2013/14 corn imports boost 2014/15 beginning stocks for Colombia, Egypt, and Turkey.  Ukraine and China 2014/15 corn beginning stocks are lowered with higher 2013/14 exports for Ukraine and lower 2013/14 imports for China.  Despite an increase in 2013/14 South Africa corn production, 2014/15 beginning stocks decline with higher 2013/14 consumption and exports.


Global corn production for 2014/15 is raised 2.0 million tons with increases for Ukraine, the European Union, and Russia.  Ukraine and Russia production are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, on higher expected yields as the latest trade data for both countries confirm further expansion in the use of imported hybrid seed corn.  European Union production is raised 0.6 million tons with increases for Germany and central Europe reflecting improved early season growing conditions in the region.  Serbia corn output is reduced slightly with less expected area.  


Global 2014/15 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this month except for small increases in corn and barley imports for Turkey.  Global corn consumption is raised 1.8 million tons with increased feed use projected for Turkey, the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia.  Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 0.9 million tons higher with increases for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, India, and Russia partly offset by reductions for China, Ukraine, and South Africa.


RICE:  Rice supply and use 2014/15 balance sheets are changed little from last month.  All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are raised 3.0 million cwt, long-grain rice stocks are raised 2.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks are up 1.0 million.  The 2014/15 beginning stocks changes flow through the balance sheets to 2014/15 ending stocks.  All rice 2014/15 ending stocks are raised 3.0 million cwt to 37.3 million—the largest stocks since 2011/12.  Long-grain ending stocks are raised 2.0 million cwt to 26.3 million—the largest since 2010/11.  Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are raised 1.0 million cwt to 8.7 million.


All rice 2013/14 exports are lowered 3.0 million cwt to 92.0 million, long-grain exports are lowered 2.0 million to 62.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are lowered 1.0 million to 30.0 million.  Rough rice exports and milled rice exports for 2013/14 are each lowered 1.5 million cwt to 31.5 million and 60.5 million (rough-equivalent basis), respectively.  U.S. exports and export commitments to Central America, Africa, Venezuela, and Northeast Asia are lagging through May compared to a year ago.  


The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.80 to $13.80 per cwt, down 70 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $15.10 to $15.70 per cwt for 2013/14.  The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain rice season-average farm price is $18.20 to $19.20 per cwt, a decrease of 30 cents per cwt on each end from last month and compares to a revised $17.40 to $18.00 per cwt for 2013/14. The 2014/15 U.S. all rice season-average farm price is projected at $14.40 to $15.40 per cwt, down 60 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $15.70 to $16.30 per cwt for 2013/14.


Global 2014/15 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago.  Global rice production is projected at a record 480.7 million tons, unchanged from a month ago.  Global 2014/15 trade (imports and exports) are unchanged from a month ago.  Global 2014/15 consumption is lowered slightly from last month.  Ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised 0.9 million tons due mostly to an increase for India.  Rice production for 2013/14 in India is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 106.3 million tons based on official statistics from the government of India.


OILSEEDS:  This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2014/15 include a small reduction in beginning and ending stocks.  Lower beginning stocks reflect a higher crush projection for 2013/14.  Soybean crush for 2013/14 is raised 5 million bushels to 1,700 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports.  Soybean meal exports are projected at 11.5 million short tons, up 0.4 million from last month reflecting stronger-than-expected shipments this spring.  Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.  Ending stocks for 2014/15 are also reduced 5 million bushels to 325 million.


The 2014/15 season-average price for soybeans is projected at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $355 to $395 per short ton, and 37 to 41 cents per pound, respectively.  Product price projections are also unchanged from last month.


Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 516.0 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month.  Rapeseed production for the European Union is raised 0.5 million tons to 22.0 million on improved yield prospects, mainly for the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and Romania.  Other changes include increased soybean production for the European Union and increased cottonseed production for the United States.  Cottonseed production is also raised for India for 2013/14.


SUGAR:  The Mexico 2013/14 forecast for sugar production is lowered from last month by 250,000 metric tons (MT) to 6.10 million MT as output continues to lag well behind last year’s pace.  Given lower supplies and sharply higher domestic prices, total exports are reduced by 121,000 MT to 2.278 million.  However, exports to the United States are raised based on the pace to date, and exports to the rest of the world are forecast lower.  Ending stocks fall by 129,000 MT to 818,000 MT, or 19.0 percent of consumption.  For 2014/15, beginning stocks and exports are forecast lower.  However, relatively higher prices in the U.S. sugar market provide the incentive for increased 2014/15 exports to the United States.


Total 2013/14 U.S. supply is forecast to rise by 261,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) with a 10,000 STRV increase in sugar from sugarcane production in Texas and a 251,000 STRV increase in imports.  Imports under the re-export program are raised 100,000 STRV, based on industry estimates, and imports from Mexico are increased 151,000 STRV.  With total use unchanged, ending stocks are forecast to rise to 15.0 percent of use, compared with 12.9 percent in May.  


Total 2014/15 U.S. supply is projected up 811,000 STRV, with increases in beginning stocks and imports more than offsetting reduced production.  Beginning stocks, at 1.857 million STRV, are up 261,000 STRV.  Total sugar production is lowered 140,000 STRV, due to lower sugarcane production in Florida and Louisiana based on processors’ first projections for 2014/15.  Total imports are forecast 690,000 STRV above May due to increased shipments from Mexico.  With no changes in total use, ending stocks are forecast to rise to 15.8 percent of 2014/15 use from 9.1 percent.


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is lowered from last month as lower beef and broiler production more than offsets increased pork and turkey production.  Beef production is lowered as the pace of steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter is reduced.  However, carcass weights are forecast slightly higher as feed prices have moderated.  Pork production is forecast higher due to a combination of larger second-quarter slaughter and higher carcass weights for the year.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 27 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year.  Broiler production is lowered from last month as the pace of expansion remains slow.  Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production.  Egg production is raised as strong table egg prices are expected to support increased production.  For 2015, no change is made to red meat or turkey forecasts, but the forecast for broiler production is reduced for early 2015.


Forecasts for 2014 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; no change is made to the export forecast.  Pork imports and exports are raised based on April trade data.  Broiler exports are reduced as production forecasts are lowered from last month.  The slower pace of exports is expected to carry into 2015.  Turkey exports are unchanged from last month.   


Cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  Broiler prices are raised for 2014 as supplies are forecast smaller, but 2015 prices are unchanged from last month.  Egg prices for 2014 are raised from last month as demand remains strong; prices for 2015 are unchanged.    


Milk production forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  Export forecasts are raised on a fat basis for 2014 and 2015 with higher cheese exports.  However, growth in 2014 exports is constrained by weaker butter sales as higher domestic prices have made U.S. butter less competitive on world markets.  Skim-solids exports reflect strength in cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports.  Imports for 2014 and 2015 are raised on higher imports of food ingredients.  


Cheese and butter prices for 2014 are forecast higher on strong demand for cheese and tight supplies of butter.  The NDM price is lowered, but the whey price forecast is unchanged.  Strength in butter prices is expected to carry into early 2015 resulting in an increase in the 2015 price, but the prices of cheese, NDM, and whey are unchanged from last month.  Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 and 2015 are raised on stronger butterfat values.  The all milk price is forecast at $22.90 to $23.30 per cwt for 2014 and $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.


COTTON:  The 2014/15 U.S. cotton projections show higher production and ending stocks compared to last month.  Projected abandonment in the Southwest has been reduced due to recent favorable rainfall, resulting in a production increase of 500,000 bales to 15.0 million.  Overall U.S. abandonment is now projected at 21 percent, below the preceding 2 years, but above the long-run average, due to current subsoil moisture deficits in the Southwest.  Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, resulting in ending stocks of 4.3 million bales.  The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 32 percent would be the highest in 6 years.  The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected to range from 60 to 80 cents per pound, down 3 cents on both ends of the range.  At the midpoint of 70 cents, prices would fall 10 percent from 2013/14.


This month’s 2014/15 world projections include higher beginning and ending stocks, equivalent increases in production and consumption, and a decline in world trade.  Beginning stocks are raised due mainly to a higher China import forecast for 2013/14 and higher 2013/14 production for India.  For 2014/15, production is raised for the United States, while consumption is raised for India and Vietnam, but is lowered for Pakistan.  World trade is reduced, as imports are lower for China and Pakistan, but higher for Vietnam.  World stocks are raised nearly 1.1 million bales from last month. 

 


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The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

 


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Hedging Corn and Commentary for 5/12/14

May 13, 2014

 

 

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Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:


Feel free to inquire on learning about the best way to hedge. In my opinion my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account. 
Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years. 

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This report was sent to subscribers on 5/9/14 3:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/12/14.


December 2014 Corn


After the close recap on 5/12/14: My pivot acted as resistance and was 5.00, .03 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 490, .00 1/4 from the actual low.

July 2014 Corn


After the close recap on 5/12/14: My pivot acted as resistance and was 5.08 1/4, .02 from the actual high, and my support was 4.97 1/2, .01 from the actual low

December 2014 Corn

            

5.09 ½   

5.07 ¼   

------------5.00          Pivot         

4.92 ½                        

4.90                        

                     

5 day chart….     Up from last week same day                      

Daily chart …     Up      

Weekly chart…  Up           

Monthly chart…Down                     4.80 is the 200 DMA

ATR 10                                                   Oversold 28%      

 

For 5/12/14: Uptrend line is pivotal now, bracket line at $4.90 is support, daily numbers resist.

New subscribers should note, it is not coincidence the market stopped going down exactly at the uptrend line.       

 

In my daily December 2014 corn numbers on Friday; my resistance was .02 ¼ from the actual high; my support was .01 ¾ from the actual low.                                                          

July 2014 Corn

 

               

5.24 ¼                        2014 High                             

5.19                                                     

------------5.08 ¼        Pivot                                                   

4.97 ½                                                                                   

4.90 ¾ XX                 Sell stops below                                                                                    

                                                                                                      

5 day chart….      Up from last week same day                                                                     

Daily chart       Up                                

Weekly chart …  Up                        

Monthly chart …Down           4.73 ½ ithe 200 DMA

ATR 11 ½                                       Balanced 39%      

 

For 5/12/14: May contract was the only month to make a new high for the year (.00 ½) andclosed lower, which bodes well for another down day to follow on Monday.

In my daily July 2014 corn numbers on Friday; my resistance was .01 ½ from the actual high; my support was .02 ¼ from the actual low.        

2012 low was $5.11 FG, 2011 low was $5.10 (now resistance), and 2010 it was $3.24 ½ (spot month continuation chart). 

 

5/12/14:

 

 

Grains: Fundamentally, the report foresees much lower prices to come for soybeans more than corn. I continue to say that the high of 2014 will not be broken weather permitting. USDA price forecasts $4.20 corn and $10.75 soybeans. I do not agree about their old crop corn numbers, or most of their numbers, and I think the bulls caught a break on this report. Next month they might not be so lucky. Rarely do I say I agree or not with the numbers, I really do not care, but these numbers seem way too optimistic. Keep in mind, corn did close higher for the week. Bullish corn numbers should have taken us higher, but since we were already at the high of the year, it had nowhere to go but down. That is what makes an old cliché’ "buy the rumor or bull news, sell the fact". When a market cannot rally on good news, it has already been baked into the cake, and the pendulum swings towards the center. It can be very good if the facts were not already built into the price, then you know you are rallying on fresh news. No matter what is said, factual or guesses, it all goes back to the charts for me. Reasons do not matter. What does matter is that the market gets to a support or resistancelevel (or number for day traders) that I want to bet that the level will hold. I more or less risk little, seeking a nice reward.

 

Here is how I look at it, the weather does not look threatening in any way right now, and unless by the end of June we see problems, the market should work its way lower until harvest. Sure, there will be corrective rallies, but this has been a long term bear market since September 2012 when we hedged 2 years worth of crop hedges. Producers as late as March 2013 hedged December 2014 hedged corn at $5.60 too. Bulls have been in control since January, and we will see if the highs of the year has already been posted, and we are nearing support levels that they must defend, and if they go, the funds will look to reduce their exposure which means for them to turn sellers.

 

 Even though we have not touched our original hedges in 2015 yet, you could go "shopping" to see if you can improve your corn and soybean hedges, and that includes 2014 crops too. Everyone has some upside they can sell, and you should consider 1 in the hand versus 3 in the bush, and sell more of the upside if you want the income now versus the "what if" from these levels. 

 

Producers always enjoy the bull stories, but hard to except the realities I offer. Nobody wants to hear the downside, and yet that is the most important thing because that is what a hedge is for, to reduce risk for a producer. The upside means you can make more income which is never a problem, but the downside can kill you. You hedge to gain control and not be a victim if the market goes lower, unhedged does have unlimited income potential, but watching high prices does not capture high prices, and the unhedged always lives in the house of "no decisions". We will always have upside potential, and when they think to sell, they might be watching us get our crop back unhedged once again at a higher price level. Or the market goes down, they still do nothing, and they still want to sell it if it goes higher. As a trader, you must make decisions all the time, and you must take responsibility for what you do at all times, you must do the same thing as a hedger. This is our livelihood, and as long as we are doing things to the best of our abilities, it does not matter if our neighbor is doing better or worse, that is their life.

 

If you got $6.00 for your corn, and the neighbor got $6.50 and you are unhappy, and the next year you got $5.50 and they got $5.00 and you are happy, you need your head examined. I have taught you my mindset continually over the years, and I am glad to say that in this respect, my producers are success stories, because they no longer get involved in that game.    

 

Back to the charts. December corn finished the week higher and settled right on the uptrend line which is pivotal on Monday. Below it I want to take the sell signals only, above I would buy it but at a minimum contract size. New subscribers can read my past comments for weeks; wanting to sell against 2014 highs that and I had said the reasons why. Resistances hold until they do not, but you can see for yourself and observe in the future, or look at 10 different charts, levels hold until they do not. My approach as a day trader and long term trader is to discover the price level, and then bet it will hold. The times it holds are much more often than the one time it does not and I get stopped out for a small loss, but when it does the rewards can be great. I am the casino when taking those trades, because the odds are in my favor.

 

If the uptrend line goes, I would look for a retest of ... Subscribe Now!.

 

 July corn rejected its 2014 high, but the uptrend has not been broken as you can see with the uptrend line intact. The rejection is easy to see but does not mean the high is in, but you can start turning out the lights when it gets below that uptrend line. That will hold until it does not, but since it keeps going higher as time goes on, it will get easier to be broken. When it is broken it smells smoke, but it would be more like fire if it was a bracket line or low or high of the year. Trend lines are valid and I use them always.

 

Nobody knows what the market will do, but you MUST know what you are doing and why, being random or having a hunch does not work in the long run, your luck will run out. I make decisions on what I want to bet on, and it is all based on the chart, my ideas never change nor the reasons why I take a trade. As a hedger, you must decide what risk you NEED off the table, not just for protecting income, but for peace of mind that comes with it. At what price do you hedge, begin here, and if you are seeking to hedge at a higher price, make sure you have a plan to sell if it goes down instead. Until hedged, you are gambling with your income, not making a bet with "protected" income you can count on if it goes lower. No service out there can give you anything but their thoughts on what prices will be at harvest, and since Mother Nature is the only one who knows, you should ALWAYS make your own decisions, which is the mission of my service.  


For the most part, my producers are well hedged and they are not concerned with what the market is doing, and you could say they are getting bored. Life is good! We can wake up if the market gets $.50 higher or lower, then we can capture more income if higher, and reduce upside exposure if lower. That is simple compared to the task of being unhedged and having to constantly worry what the market is doing. I would be worried too if I did not know what the market will do and did not know what I was going to do.   

 

I have a bearish bias, and trade the numbers using a $.03 stop in corn and a $.06 stop in soybeans to protect any idea.       

 

 5/9/14:

 

Corn:

 

You will know what you are doing sooner or later, it is a personal thing, but all before they met me could say they learned a lot of things NOT to do. I have said ever year, "nobody taught me anything, I learned from observing the losers and what they did to cause their demise". I had many to learn from, not many new members could make it past the first 6 months. The easiest first sign of trouble is when you see someone start getting emotional. Emotions are disaster in trading, even when making money. Next is when you see someone who was active and slowing down, when their jaw starts dropping they are getting killed. Usually, the unimaginable starts happening to them, they cannot believe it and become frozen without the ability to do something about it before it became a problem. They lost control. You must acquire an approach that works for you, your personality, your desire for risk or as little as possible, and the timeframe you can or want to trade in. Then you need a plan to accomplish your goals. You need a trading plan that controls risk as it pursues a reward. When you swing for a homerun, you have more of a chance to strike out; big rewards can have big losses without proper risk management.

 

Early wagering is ongoing until game time at 11am Chicago time, and the report release will be "kickoff". If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Play chess, and know what you will do thinking ahead as many moves as possible. Know what trades you want to take and why. Know why you are improving your hedges, and wait the price levels to do so.

 

No matter what this reports say, by Monday it will already be factored into the price equation. More importantly, the market should be focused 100% on the weather and crop progress for direction after that. Every producer knows that June is a tough month to look for price advances without the help of adverse weather. This year more than most years, have factored in a higher price for May, because the real months of production building, is June and July, you can throw in August for soybeans. You know better than I, but I allow what I just said as the fundamentals that were always important to me. It does not tell me yields will be good or bad, but it tells me when it is too early, or too late to bet on it. Last year almost took away the desire to look for any help from the weather, it did not help at all, but instead it misled those who bet the weather produced a shortfall. Nonetheless the weather is still the absolute focus for now, but as time goes on without problems with planting which I do not see at all, and lack of hot dry conditions coming in, and I would expect a normal or above normal yield and larger production then what is being perceived by the bulls. "Markets can and will do anything" including making a new high for the year and then $.50 lower from here by end of June.

 

 

Whatever you do it is for harvest, not for today or next month, and the only thing to do at these levels is to improve the downside, the upside is way too expensive for my taste, and getting long where I want to be a seller.  

 

5/8/14:

 

Corn: 

  

December corn has held every support level the last 5 weeks, funds continuing to defend the bulk of their positions for now. At the same time they have not been able to advance the price past the current resistance levels. Anything can happen, and I think it all depends on the weather which is hard to predict, and impossible for me to bet money on. Only a cheap "what if" for me, I would rather take a "what if" to the downside cheaply betting that weather will be closer to a normal growing season rather than an abnormal one.    

 

I still think as the growing season progresses without incident, we will see $11.25 soybeans and $4.50 corn by July 1, and then it will depend on perceptions, momentum, and crop progress reports for clues to the next direction.

 

 

I continue to say, we have seen the high for the year in corn and soybeans, and would take the opportunities when at resistances to take the sell signals and risk $.03 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a buy stop to protect my idea.  

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The markets covered daily are 2013 & 2014 Soybeans and Corn.

My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

Find out why many of my subscribers keep renewing this service for years. 
 
Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading. 

 

$299.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $299.00 monthly


   Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

 

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

 

   Tel.1-312-823-9189, 1-702-405-7245

 


Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance. This is intended for educational benefit.

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