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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report for 2/8/13

Feb 08, 2013

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WASDE Report for 2/8/13

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million from last month due to increased crush. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting both larger soybean meal exports and domestic use. Strong U.S. soybean meal exports during the first half of the marketing year are partly offsetting declining shipments from Argentina where crushing has slowed due to limited soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal use is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production is raised on higher soybean crush and a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.3 billion pounds, up 150 million from last month as sales continue stronger than expected. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite relatively low use during the first quarter of the marketing year. Production and use are expected to expand in coming months due to the higher mandate for 2013. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.665 billion pounds, up 125 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price projection is also unchanged at 49 to 53 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Global soybean production is raised fractionally to 269.5 million tons as improved production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 83.5 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields resulting from improved moisture in the center-west. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop have diminished in recent weeks due to an extended period of dry weather. As a result, the crop is projected at 53 million tons, down 1 million from last month. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 36.4 million tons, up 0.5 million due to gains for Russia and Kazakhstan. Other changes include increased peanut and cottonseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey.

Global oilseed and product supply and use changes this month include reduced soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Argentina, reduced soybean meal imports for EU-27, increased rapeseed crush and rapeseed meal consumption for EU-27, and increased sunflowerseed crush in Russia. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher, mostly reflecting higher soybean stocks in Brazil.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, and raised 5 million bushels for White wheat. Projected all-wheat exports are unchanged, but HRW and Hard Red Spring wheat are lowered 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. Offsetting these reductions are projected increases in SRW and White wheat exports of 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. By-class export changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected season-average farm price for wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global wheat output is projected 0.7 million tons lower. Production is lowered for Kazakhstan and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine, South Africa, and Belarus.

Global wheat trade for 2012/13 is trimmed slightly. Imports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Morocco, 0.3 million tons for Saudi Arabia, and 0.2 million tons each for Israel, South Africa, and Vietnam. Imports are raised 0.6 million tons for South Korea, 0.5 million tons for Iran, and 0.2 million tons for Brazil. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons for EU-27, but reduced 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan and 0.3 million tons for Brazil. Lower exports for Brazil and Kazakhstan reflect smaller crops, while the increase in South Korea imports supports higher wheat feeding. Wheat feed and residual use is also raised for Ukraine. Wheat feed and residual use is lowered for EU-27, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and Israel. Global wheat consumption is virtually unchanged at 673.4 million tons; however, global consumption is projected down 24.6 million tons year to year, mostly reflecting lower feed and residual use in 2012/13. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are also nearly unchanged this month at 176.7 million tons. Lower projected ending stocks in the United States and Morocco are offset by higher stocks in Iran, South Korea, and Ukraine.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as lower expected exports outweigh an increase in projected domestic usage. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed, and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel. Reported monthly prices received by farmers to date continue to reflect forward sales made at prices below prevailing cash market bids.

Usage changes for 2012/13 are also made this month for sorghum and barley. Sorghum feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower, but offset by a 20-million-bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use and a 5-million-bushel increase in exports. Projected barley exports are lowered 1 million bushels, based on indications of slower-than-expected shipments. Barley ending stocks are increased by the same amount. The projected range for the sorghum farm price is lowered 15 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.70 to $7.60 per bushel. The barley farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.15 to $6.65 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons higher as a decrease in beginning stocks is more than offset by a 2.9-million-ton increase in production. Lower 2012/13 beginning stocks mostly reflect an increase in 2011/12 corn exports for Brazil and revisions to the Paraguay corn series that lower 2011/12 corn area and yield.

Global 2012/13 corn production is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for Brazil, Mexico, India, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Brazil production is raised 1.5 million tons based on higher reported area and yields for the first-season crop and good early prospects for second-season corn. Mexico production is increased 0.8 million tons with higher reported area for the summer crop. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for India on higher area as indicated by the latest sowing progress reports. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons on higher reported yields. Argentina production is lowered 1.0 million tons as persistent dryness in January and early February lowers yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn.

Global 2012/13 production is also higher this month for sorghum, barley, oats, and rye. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for Mexico with higher area and yields for the summer crop, but lowered 0.2 million tons for Australia with reduced prospects for area and yields. Global barley, oats, and rye production are up a combined 0.6 million tons on larger reported crops for the FSU-12 countries.

Global coarse grain trade for 2012/13 is higher mostly reflecting increased imports of barley for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Tunisia and higher sorghum imports for Mexico and Japan. World corn imports and exports are raised only slightly, but significant shifts are made among countries. Corn imports are raised for EU-27 and China, but lowered for Egypt, Syria, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Ukraine, but lowered for the United States and Argentina. Global corn consumption for 2012/13 is lowered with a reduction in world feed and residual usage. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 2.0 million tons for Brazil, 1.0 million tons for Egypt, and 0.4 million tons for Argentina, but raised 2.0 million tons for EU-27 and 0.5 million tons for China. Global corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons higher with the largest increases expected for Brazil and the United States.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 65,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher sugar production more than offsetting lower imports. Louisiana cane sugar and U.S. beet sugar production estimates are increased in line with reports from processors, and increased shortfall in filling the tariff rate quota accounts for reduced imports. Sugar use is unchanged.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month reflecting higher forecast beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised based mostly on heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is also raised as cow slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be relatively high. Pork production is raised as carcass weights are expected to reflect more moderate feed costs. Broiler hatchery data pointed to continued expansion of bird numbers and weights at slaughter have been increasing. Thus, the broiler production forecast is raised from last month. Turkey production is raised slightly on hatchery data. Egg production is raised on higher producer prices and lower forecast feed prices. Estimates of 2012 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data.

The beef export forecast for 2013 is unchanged as trade restrictions by Russia are offset by gains to Japan and other markets. Pork exports are lowered on trade restrictions imposed by Russia although there is expected to be some offset in higher exports to other markets. Broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised from last month on stronger demand from a number of markets. Import forecasts are unchanged from January. Beef and pork export estimates for 2012 are lowered due to slower-than-expected shipments in November. Poultry is raised based on larger-than-expected November shipments.

Cattle, hog, and turkey prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength in 2013.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as USDA's Cattle report indicated that the number of cows on January 1 was about unchanged from 2012. Milk per cow forecasts are raised as last quarter-2012 estimates were higher than expected and lower forecast feed costs support higher milk yields in 2013. Fat-basis trade estimates for 2013 are unchanged. The skim-solids export estimate for 2013 is raised largely on expectations of stronger nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but the import forecast is unchanged. Milk production estimates for 2012 are raised, reflecting end-of-year production data. Dairy trade estimates for 2012 reflect the pace of trade through November.

Cheese prices are unchanged from last month, but the price range is narrowed. NDM and whey prices are raised reflecting stronger demand, but the butter price is lowered. Despite a higher whey price, the forecast Class III price is unchanged although the range is tightened. Lower butter prices are more than offset by higher NDM prices resulting in a slightly higher forecast Class IV price. The range of all milk price for 2013 is narrowed to $18.90 to $19.70 per cwt.

COTTON:  This month's 2012/13 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Estimates of production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Exports are raised slightly to 12.5 million bales, due mainly to an increase in projected imports by China. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.5 million bales, accounting for 28 percent of total disappearance. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69-73 cents per pound is raised 3 cents on the lower end and 2 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting a sharp increase in the price received for December.

The aggregate world 2012/13 production, consumption, and stocks forecasts show only slight revisions this month, but increases in China's production and imports are raising the expected concentration of stocks there. World production is estimated marginally higher, as increases for China and Kazakhstan are mostly offset by decreases for Pakistan and Turkey. World consumption likewise is increased marginally, reflecting increases for Turkey and others. China's imports are raised 1.5 million bales to 14.0 million, increasing world trade by a like amount, based on heavy imports during the first half of the marketing year. Exports are raised for the United States, Australia, Brazil, Uzbekistan, the African Franc Zone, Greece, and others. World ending stocks are virtually unchanged at 81.9 million bales, but China's stocks are raised 2.0 million bales to 42.6 million, accounting for 52 percent of world stocks.

RICE: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class supply and use balance sheets. U.S. 2012/13 total rice supplies are raised slightly because of an increase in imports. Beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago. Long-grain imports are raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 18.5 million, and combined medium- and short-grain imports are unchanged at 2.5 million. No changes are made on the use side-all rice domestic and residual is still forecast at 125.0 million cwt and exports at 106.0 million. The rice-by-class projections of domestic and residual use and exports are also unchanged from a month ago. All rice 2012/13 ending stocks are raised nearly 2 percent to 30.6 million cwt-all in long-grain rice.

The 2012/13 long-grain, season-average price is raised 10 cents per cwt at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $14.00 to $14.60 per cwt. The combined medium- and short-grain price is lowered 50 cents per cwt at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $15.90 to $16.50 per cwt. The all rice season-average price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt at the midpoint, but the range is narrowed to $14.60 to $15.20 per cwt.

Global 2012/13 projections of rice production and consumption are raised from last month, but trade and ending stocks are lowered. Global 2012/13 rice production is forecast at a record 465.8 million due to increases for Bangladesh, Bolivia, and Nepal partially offset by reductions for Argentina and Laos. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 469.3 million as relatively small changes are made to several countries including Bolivia, Iraq, and Nepal. Global exports for 2012/13 are lowered slightly due mainly to reductions for Argentina and China. Imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Cuba, Egypt, and Indonesia. Global 2012/13 ending stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to about 102.0 million due mostly to decreases for Egypt and Indonesia.

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