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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 15

Aug 16, 2012

Wednesday Evening, August 15-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.25 at
$126.65 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and did hit a fresh 4.5-month high early on. Mild profit
taking from recent gains was seen today but the bulls still
have upside momentum as prices are in a four-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Cash cattle fundamentals
are also improving. Cattle futures bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $129.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $124.07. First resistance is seen at $127.00 and
then at today’s high of $127.22 First support is seen at
$126.45 and then at this week’s low of $125.95. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

October feeder cattle closed down $0.27 at $145.52 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and poked to another
fresh four-week high early on. Feeders have seen a bullish
upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range at lower
price levels to suggest a market low is in place and that
prices can now trend sideways to higher. Feeder cattle
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $147.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $143.00. First resistance is
seen at $146.00 and then at $146.50. First support is seen
at $145.00 and then at $144.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

October lean hogs closed down $1.82 at $75.60 today. Prices
closed near the session low today. Bears gained fresh
downside near-term technical momentum today as a bear flag
has now formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s
high of $77.70. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s contract low of $74.90. First
resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $75.50 and then at
$74.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 14 1/2 cents at
$8.03 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high.
Recent price action has produced bearish “key reversal” in
the corn market, which is an early technical clue that a
major market top is in place. However, the corn bulls
maintain the overall near-term technical advantage and it
will take strong downside selling pressure to change that
overall technical posture of corn from bullish to bearish.
Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s contract high of $8.49. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $7.45 1/2. First
resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high of
$8.06 and then at this week’s high of $8.13 3/4. First
support is seen at $8.00 and then at this week’s low of
$7.86. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November soybeans closed up 36 1/2 cents at $16.34 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session high. A
bullish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart. Soybean bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $16.68 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$15.55 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$16.36 and then at $16.50. First support is seen at $16.25
and then at $16.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December soybean meal closed up $14.40 at $493.80 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Meal bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained
fresh upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$467.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$494.40 and then at $500.00. First support is seen at
$490.00 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December bean oil closed up 28 points at 53.71 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean oil bulls
have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears'
next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
August low of 51.84 cents. First resistance is seen at
53.98 cents and then at this week’s high of 54.50 cents.
First support is seen at 53.50 cents and then at today’s
low of 53.28 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 8 cents at $8.66 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting. The wheat market
bulls have fading a bit following recent price action. It
could be that a bearish double-top reversal is forming on
the daily bar chart. My bias is that the wheat market has
put in a major top. Wheat bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above major psychological resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.15. First resistance is seen at
$8.75 and then at Tuesday’s high of $8.84 1/2. First
support lies at this week’s low of $8.58 1/4 and then at
$8.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents at $8.81 1/2
today. Prices were near mid-range today. Bulls have faded a
bit recently as a bearish double-top reversal pattern may
be forming. My bias is that a market top is in place, but
the bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.50. First resistance is seen
at $9.00 and then at this week’s high of $9.17. First
support is seen at $8.74 and then at $8.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

December oats closed up 7 3/4 cents at $3.76 1/4 today.
closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Oats bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but trading
remains choppy at higher levels. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$3.98 1/2. First support lies at $3.70 and then at today’s
low of $3.65. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.79 3/4 and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 1 point at 20.33 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit another fresh six-week low. The sugar bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage and have downside
momentum on their side. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 21.50 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 19.24 cents. First
resistance is seen at 20.50 cents and then at today’s high
of 20.64 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
20.17 cents and then at 20.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

September coffee closed down 125 points at 161.80 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
six-week low early on. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 172.50 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of 150.10
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
163.55 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 165.75 cents.
First support is seen at 160.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 158.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

September cocoa closed up $10 at $2,440 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Cocoa bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $2,533. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,458 and then at this week’s 6.5-month
high of $2,488. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,416 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed up 102 points at 73.11 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on some short
covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 79.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 70.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 73.69
cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 71.59 cents and then at 71.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

September orange juice closed up the 1,000 point (10 cent)
limit at $1.2530 today. Prices hit a fresh five-week high
on a “short squeeze” that occurred in the market (traders
caught short) as worries increased about a tropical storm
or hurricane hitting citrus regions of the southeastern
U.S. Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the July high of $1.3155. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.2750 and then at
$1.3000. First support is seen at $1.2250 and then at
$1.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September lumber futures closed up $7.20 at $315.00 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 11.5-
month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $300.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$317.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $313.00 and then at $310.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $3.90 an ounce
at $1,606.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The choppy, sideways and range-bound trading action
continues as it has for the past two months. The gold
market bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term
technical playing field. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $1,646.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the July low of $1,559.50.
First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,618.90 and
then at last week’s high of $1,633.30. First support is
seen at $1,600.00 and then at today’s low of $1,592.10.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.007 an ounce at
$27.77 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Not much
new in silver, either, as prices are still choppy, sideways
and range-bound. Silver bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $27.96
and then at this week’s high of $28.15. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $27.43 and then at $27.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 125 points at 334.65
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in
quieter trading. Copper bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 345.70 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
337.25 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 333.40 cents and then at 330.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.84 a barrel
at $94.27 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh three-month high. Crude oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
some fresh upside momentum today. A six-week-old price
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the August low of
$86.92. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $94.90
and then at $96.00. First support is seen at $93.00 and
then at today’s low of $92.68. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed up 554 points at $3.0900
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9500. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0934 and then at
$3.1250. First support is seen at $3.0600 and then at this
week’s low of $3.0133. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 740 points at
$3.0754 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh four-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside
momentum today. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.9500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.0890 and then at $3.1000. First support is seen at
$3.0435 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September natural gas closed down 7.7 cents at $2.757
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $3.277. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $2.706. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $2.848 and then at $2.91. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $2.715 and then at
$2.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 44 points at 1.2291 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today. The Euro bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051.
First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of
1.2348 and then at this week’s high of 1.2390. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of 1.2265 and then at 1.2200.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 14 points at 1.2683
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh
power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of
1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2600. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2727 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 1.2772. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2653 and then at 1.2600. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 38 points at 1.0236
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0281 and then at this week’s high of 1.0319. First
support is seen at 1.0200 and then at the August low of
1.0112. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 6 points at
1.0473 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0700. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0250.
First resistance is seen at 1.0508 and then at the contract
high of 1.0578. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0423 and then at 1.0389. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 22 points at 1.0103
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the April high
of 1.0168. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at .9900. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0108 and then at 1.0168. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.0052 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed down 9 points at 1.5680
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field and
confined to a well-defined trading range. However, prices
are also in a gentle three-week-old uptrend on the daily
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5456. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.5736 and then at 1.5773. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.5655 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 18 points at
82.71 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of 84.24. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at last week’s high of
82.94 and then at 83.25. First support is seen at today’s
low of 82.51 and then at this week’s low of 82.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 15/32 at 146 1/32
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit a fresh three-month low. Bulls have faded badly as
prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. For the first time in months the bulls have lost
their near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 144 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 149 9/32. First resistance is seen at 146 16/32 and then
at 147 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 145
30/32 and then at 145 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 21.5 (32nds) at 132.15.0
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh three-month low. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. For the first time in
months the bulls have lost their near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at this
week’s high of 133.27.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 131.16.0. First resistance is seen at
132.24.0 and then at 133.00.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 132.15.0 and then at 132.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today in more quiet, summertime trading. The market
place is awaiting some fresh, market-moving fundamental
inputs. But with the dog days of summer at hand in the U.S.
and most of Europe on vacation, that news has been hard to
come by lately. Several U.S. economic reports released
Wednesday failed to significantly impact the stock indexes.
Many market participants are also on the sidelines, or are
tentative, as they wait to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve
will act to implement another round of quantitative easing
of U.S. monetary policy—nicknamed QE3. Any such action
could occur at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual
gathering in late-August, or at the next meeting of the
Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee in September.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 11.75 at 2,738.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the April high of 2,791.50. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 2,516.50. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,743.00 and then
at 2,760.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,718.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,705.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.90 at 1,403.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance
is seen at 1,411.50 and then at 1,425.00. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 1,394.00 and then at last week’s
low of 1,387.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed up 2 points at 13,135 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,400. First resistance
in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 13,185 and then at
13,200. First support is seen at this week’s low of 13,080
and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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