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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 6

Aug 07, 2012

Monday Evening, August 6-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.02 at
$124.35 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Losses were limited by the key “outside markets” being in a
bullish posture for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Recent price
action is a clue the cattle market has put in a near-term
low. Cattle futures bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $126.45. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$122.15. First resistance is seen at $125.00 and then at
today’s high of $125.50. First support is seen at $124.00
and then at last week’s low of $123.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed down $0.07 at $140.05 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Feeders still
appear to be “basing” at lower price levels, which could
mean a market low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$144.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $138.30. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $141.60 and then at $142.00. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $139.70 and then at
$138.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

October lean hogs closed down $0.67 at $75.17 today. Prices
closed near the session low again today and careened to
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid downside
near-term technical advantage. However, this market is
technically oversold on a short-term basis. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $78.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $74.00.
First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at today’s high
of $76.20. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$75.10 and then at $74.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were up
down 1/2 cent at $8.07 today. Prices were nearer the
session high. There was better-than-expected weekend
rainfall and some better chances for rain in the Corn Belt
in the coming days and that was bearish news. But that was
offset by strong weekly USDA export inspections data today.
The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for
corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were firmer. The corn bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as a steep uptrend is
still in place from the June low. Remember, however, that a
major bull market needs fresh fundamental inputs, often, to
digest. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push
and close prices above psychological resistance at $8.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$7.45 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at
today’s high of $8.09 3/4 and then at $8.16 3/4. First
support is seen at $8.00 and then at today’s low of $7.89
1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were down 39
3/4 cents at $15.89 a bushel today. Prices were near mid-
range. There was better-than-expected weekend rainfall and
some better chances for rain in the Corn Belt in the coming
days and that was bearish news for the still-developing
soybean crop. Some more profit taking was seen in soybeans
today. Soybeans have taken over the lead from the corn
market. Soybean bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are fading. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $16.63 1/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $15.36. First resistance is seen at $16.00 and
then at $16.15. First support is seen at today’s low of
$15.75 3/4 and then at $15.60/ Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

In late trading, December soybean meal was down $13.00 at
$479.40 today. Prices were near mid-range. Meal bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading a bit. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $500.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $454.30. First resistance comes
in at $482.50 and then at today’s high of $485.60. First
support is seen at today’s low of $474.10 and then at
$470.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

In late trading, December bean oil was down 38 points at
52.50 cents today. Prices were nearer the session high but
did a fresh five-week low today. Bean oil bears have gained
the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.85 cents and then
at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 51.84 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was down 2 3/4
cents at $9.01 today. Prices were near mid-range today and
saw mild profit taking from recent gains. The wheat market
is still closely following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, this is also a very mature bull market run. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $9.33 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $8.64
1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.08 1/4
and then at $9.19 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of
$8.89 1/2 and then at $8.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was down 4 1/4
cents at $9.13 1/2 today. Prices were near mid-range and
saw more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. However, the bull market run is
very mature. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $9.45. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.74. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $9.20 1/2 and then at $9.29 1/2. First
support is seen at $9.00 and then at last week’s low of
$8.84 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

In late trading, December oats were down 3 1/4 cents at
$3.74 3/4 today. Prices were nearer the session high. Oats
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.57
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
July high of $3.92 1/4. First support lies at $3.70 and
then at $3.67 1/2. First resistance is seen at $3.79 1/4
and then at $3.82 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 27 points at 21.73
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh five-week low. The sugar bears have reclaimed
the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
23.00 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 20.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 22.00 cents and
then at Friday’s high of 22.14 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 21.67 cents and then at 21.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September coffee closed up 185 points at 175.65 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some short
covering. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for coffee today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 180.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 177.85
cents and then at 180.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 173.00 cents and then at last week’s low of
170.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September cocoa closed up $5 at $2,403 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high today. Prices Friday hit a 4.5-month
high. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture
for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and
crude oil prices were firmer. Cocoa bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of $2,455. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen at
Friday’s high of $2,436 and then at $2,455. First support
is seen at $2,375 and then at today’s low of $2,352.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed up 178 points at 75.72 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
2.5-month high. Price action Friday and today has produced
a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent choppy and
sideways trading range. Bulls have gained some fresh upside
near-term technical momentum. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for cotton today, as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer.
The cotton bulls now have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 79.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.79 cents and then
at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at 75.00 cents and
then at 74.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September orange juice closed down 120 points at $1.1100
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.1675. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the May low of $1.0000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.1335 and then at
$1.1500. First support is seen at $1.1000 and then at
today’s low of $1.0855. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September lumber futures closed up $2.40 at $288.80 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls have
regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $277.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $296.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $290.50 and
then at $292.00. First support is seen at $288.00 and then
at $286.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $5.50 an ounce
at $1,614.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today in quieter summertime trading. The key “outside
markets” turned bullish as the day wore on—weaker U.S.
dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. The gold market
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the June high of $1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $1,559.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,618.40 and then at $1,625.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,605.30 and then
at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.074 an ounce at
$26.875 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for silver today, as
the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer. Silver bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at $28.00 and then at
last week’s high of $28.335. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $27.565 and then at $27.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 175 points 338.55 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were firmer. Copper bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 345.70
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
340.00 cents and then at 342.50 cents. First support is
seen at 335.00 cents and then at 333.20 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.75 a barrel
at $92.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh two-week high. Crude oil bulls have
regained the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $93.25 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $86.00. First resistance is seen at $93.25 and
then at $94.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$90.63 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed up 166 points at $2.9427
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.7500. First resistance lies at the July high
of $2.9503 and then at $2.9750. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.9078 and then at $2.8750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 30 points at
$2.9280 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Prices Friday hit a three-month high. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $2.8000. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $2.9508 and then at $2.9750. First support
is seen at $2.9000 and then at today’s low of $2.8788.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September natural gas closed up 4.2 cents at $2.919 today.
Prices closed near the session high today but did hit a
fresh three-week low early on. Bulls have faded. Bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the July high of $3.277. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the July low of $2.706. First
resistance is seen at $2.95 and then at $3.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.801 and then at $2.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 35 points at 1.2417 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week
high as the bulls have gained a bit of upside technical
momentum to suggest a near-term low is in place. The bulls
do have more work to do to suggest an uptrend can be
sustained. The Euro bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2450 and
then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2347 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 65 points at 1.2793
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the June high of 1.2895. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2600. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2803 and then at the July high of
1.2854. First support is seen at 1.2750 and then at today’s
low of 1.2720. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 32 points at 1.0341
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. The bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage in the Swissy. However, the
bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term momentum. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
1.0040. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0366
and then at 1.0400. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0284 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 27 points at
1.0542 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh five-month high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the March high of 1.0557. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0250.
First resistance is seen at 1.0557 and then at 1.0600. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0496 and then at
1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 4 points at .9999
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh 2.5-month high close. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0150. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9850. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0011 and then at 1.0050. First support is seen at today’s
low of .9970 and then at .9950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The September British pound closed down 30 points at 1.5613
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field and
confined to a well-defined trading range. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5456. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5665 and then at
1.5700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5545 and
then at last week’s low of 1.5488. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 20 points at
82.24 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh four-week low. The bulls are fading but do
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
84.24. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 82.62 and then at 83.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 82.12 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 10/32 at 149 27/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has
turned choppy. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 148 even. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of 153 11/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 150 11/32 and
then at 151 even. First support is seen at last week’s low
of 149 8/32 and then at 149 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 6.5 (32nds) at 134.03.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the contract high of 135.15.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
134.10.0 and then at 134.16.0. First support is seen at
134.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 133.24.5. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
slightly higher today for the first higher daily close on a
Monday since May. The indexes also hit fresh three-month
highs. The market place was in just a bit more of a “risk-
on” mode Monday, following Friday’s surprisingly strong
U.S. jobs report. However, trading action to start the new
week was quieter and lethargic, as much of Europe is on
vacation and the “dog days” of summer are at hand in the
U.S. Asian stocks rallied overnight, following Friday’s
U.S. employment report. Asian traders are starting to look
toward the end of the week, when a fresh batch of Chinese
economic data is due for release. There was also some
upbeat news coming out of the European Union, as reports
said European Central Bank officials are claiming they
don’t need unanimous EU approval to buy bonds of the
struggling EU countries.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 16.50 at 2,687.50.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-month
high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the April high of
2,791.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 2,516.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 2,701.75 and then at 2,715.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,671.75 and then at 2,650.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.70 at 1,389.70.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
three-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,395.70 and then at 1,400.00.
First support is seen at 1,375.00 and then at 1,360.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 12 points at 13,067 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh
three-month high. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the May high of 13,280. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 12,400. First resistance in the Dow lies at
today’s high of 13,127 and then at 13,200. First support is
seen at 13,000 and then at 12,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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