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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 8

Aug 09, 2012

Wednesday Evening, August 8-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $1.47 at
$125.65 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
The bulls gained some upside momentum today and recent
price action is a clue the cattle market has put in a near-
term low. Cattle futures bulls now have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $126.45. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$123.00. First resistance is seen at $125.82 and then at
$126.45. First support is seen at $125.00 and then at
today’s low of $124.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

October feeder cattle closed up $1.32 at $141.45 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting. Feeders still appear to be
“basing” at lower price levels, which could mean a market
low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $144.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $138.30. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $142.30 and then at $143.00. First support
is seen at $141.00 and then at $140.70. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.70 at $75.62 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. It’s my bias this market does not have
much more downside potential. But the bears do still have
the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $78.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $74.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $76.20 and
then at $77.00. First support is seen at today’s contract
low of $74.90 and then at $74.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were up
14 cents at $8.14 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the session
high and scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart. Prices are right back near the contract high.
Featured today was position evening and some fresh
speculative buying ahead of what most expect to be a very
bullish USDA supply and demand report on Friday morning.
The corn bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a steep uptrend is in place from the
June low. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above psychological resistance at
$8.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $7.45 1/2. First resistance for December corn is
seen at the contract high of $8.20 1/2 and then at $8.25.
First support is seen at $8.00 and then at this week’s low
of $7.89 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were up 8 1/4
cents at $15.74 a bushel today. Prices were nearer the
session high and did hit a fresh two-week low in early
trading. Featured today was position evening and some fresh
speculative buying ahead of what most expect to be a
bullish USDA supply and demand report on Friday morning.
There are better chances for rain in the Corn Belt in the
coming days and that did limit gains in beans today.
Soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $16.63 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $15.36. First
resistance is seen at $15.85 and then at $15.92. First
support is seen at today’s low of $15.55 1/4 and then at
$15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

In late trading, December soybean meal was up $2.90 at
$474.70 today. Prices were nearer the session high. Meal
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$500.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $454.30. First resistance comes in at $480.00
and then at this week’s high of $485.60. First support is
seen at $470.30 and then at today’s low of $467.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

In late trading, December bean oil was up 25 points at
52.36 cents today. Prices were near the session high and
saw some short covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bears
still have the slight near-term technical advantage as
prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 51.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 52.50 cents and then at
52.85 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then
at this week’s low of 51.84 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was up 1 3/4
cents at $9.04 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the session
high late today. The wheat market is still closely
following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $9.33 1/4 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $8.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $9.12 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $9.17
3/4. First support lies at today’s low of $8.83 3/4 and
then at last week’s low of $8.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was up 3/4 cent at
$9.20 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the session high. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $9.45. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.74. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $9.27 and then at $9.35. First support
is seen at today’s low of $9.00 and then at $8.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

In late trading, December oats were up 5 cents at $3.77 
1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session high and scoring
a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Oats
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.57
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
July high of $3.92 1/4. First support lies at $3.75 and
then at today’s low of $3.69. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.79 3/4 and then at $3.83. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 27 points at 21.15
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit another fresh five-week low. The sugar bears
have the near-term technical advantage and have gained
downside momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 22.25 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 20.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at 21.35 cents and then at today’s high of 21.56
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 21.05 cents
and then at 20.80 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September coffee closed down 170 points at 170.95 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
week low. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 180.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 165.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 173.10 cents and then
at 175.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
169.90 cents and then at 167.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

September cocoa closed up $6 at $2,453 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit a fresh 5.5-month high. Cocoa
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a choppy, two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of $2,533. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,300. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,479
and then at $2,500. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,434 and then at $2,402. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December cotton closed up 45 points at 75.85 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 2.5-month high. Price action recently has produced a
bullish upside “breakout” from the recent choppy and
sideways trading range. Bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. The cotton bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 79.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 70.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 76.30
cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 74.21 cents and then at this week’s low of
73.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September orange juice closed up 40 points at $1.1325
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.1675. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the May low of $1.0000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.1520 and then at
$1.1675. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.1145
and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September lumber futures closed up $3.50 at $293.10 today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $280.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $296.70.
First resistance is seen at $295.00 and then at $296.70.
First support is seen at $290.00 and then at $288.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $3.10 an ounce
at $1,615.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today amid the quieter summertime doldrums. There is not
much new in this market as the choppy and range-bound
trading action continues. The gold market bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
$1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of $1,559.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $1,621.30 and then at last week’s high of
$1,633.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$1,605.30 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

September silver futures closed down $0.036 an ounce at
$28.050 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Not much new in silver, either, as prices are choppy and
range-bound. Silver bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.21
and then at last week’s high of $28.335. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $27.66 and then at this week’s low
of $27.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 240 points 341.65 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 343.30 cents and then at last week’s high
of 345.70 cents. First support is seen at 340.00 cents and
then at 337.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed down $0.35 a barrel
at $93.33 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and
saw some late profit taking after hitting a fresh 2.5-month
high early on. Crude oil bulls have upside technical
momentum and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A five-week-old price uptrend has been re-
established on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $86.92.
First resistance is seen at $94.00 and then at today’s high
of $94.72 and then at $95.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $92.82 and then at $91.78. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed up 151 points at $3.0136
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.8250. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $3.0297 and then at $3.0500. First support
is seen at $3.0000 and then at today’s low of $2.9728.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 165 points
at $2.9751 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today on some profit taking after hitting a fresh three-
month high early on. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.8500. First resistance is seen at $3.0000 and then at
today’s high of $3.0225. First support is seen at $2.9500
and then at $2.9128. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September natural gas closed down 2.3 cents at $2.941
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. A bearish
pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$3.277. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the July low of $2.706. First resistance is seen at $3.00
and then at $3.065. First support is seen at $2.882 and
then at this week’s low of $2.801. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 53 points at 1.2364 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The bulls have gained a bit of
upside technical momentum recently to suggest a near-term
low is in place. The bulls do have more work to do to
suggest an uptrend can be sustained. The Euro bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051.
First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of
1.2407 and then at this week’s high of 1.2450 and then at
1.2500. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2331 and
then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 21 points at 1.2744
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but trading has
turned choppy. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high
of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2600.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2787 and then
at this week’s high of 1.2803. First support is seen at
last week’s low of 1.2700 and then at 1.2650. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 45 points at 1.0296
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. The bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. However, the bulls have gained some upside near-
term momentum recently. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0400. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 1.0040. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0331 and then at
this week’s high of 1.0366 and then at 1.0400. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0284 and then at
1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 13 points at
1.0529 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0700. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0250.
First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s contract high of
1.0564 and then at 1.0600. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0492 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 18 points at 1.0044
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh three-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0150. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9850. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0056
and then at 1.0100. First support is seen at 1.0000 and
then at .9979. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed up 15 points at 1.5653
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field
and confined to a well-defined trading range. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5456. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.5684 and then
at 1.5700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5571
and then at last week’s low of 1.5488. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at
82.41 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls
are fading but do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of 84.24. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 82.62
and then at 83.00. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 82.06 and then at 81.56. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 13/32 at 148 8/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh
five-week low today. Bull still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh
power soon. Prices are in a two-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 146 28/32. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 152 4/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
149 3/32 and then at 149 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 148 even and then at 147 16/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 5.0 (32nds) at 133.13.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit another fresh five-week low. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and
need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 134.29.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
133.25.0 and then at 134.04.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 133.10.0 and then at 133.04.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today in quiet, summertime trading. The
indexes Tuesday hit three-month highs. Bulls have upside
near-term technical momentum as the stock market is
“climbing a wall of worry.”

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 1.50 at
2,708.50. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the April high of 2,791.50. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the July low of 2,516.50.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,723.00
and then at 2,750.00. First support is seen at 2,686.25 and
then at this week’s low of 2,671.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.50 at 1,398.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 1,403.30 and then at
1,411.50. First support is seen at 1,388.00 and then at
1,375.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 1 point at 13,120 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,400. First resistance
in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 13,160 and then at
13,200. First support is seen at this week’s low of 13,057
and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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