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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 9

Aug 10, 2012

Thursday Evening, August 9-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.10 at
$125.77 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
The bulls have gained some upside momentum and recent price
action is a clue the cattle market has put in a near-term
low. Cattle futures bulls now have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $126.45. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $123.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $126.20 and
then at $126.45. First support is seen at $125.00 and then
at $124.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

October feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $140.50 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Feeders still
appear to be “basing” at lower price levels, which could
mean a market low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$144.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $138.30. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $141.47 and then at this week’s
high of $142.30. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $139.65 and then at $138.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.32 at $75.95 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. It’s my bias this market does
not have much more downside potential. But the bears do
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$78.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$74.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $76.75
and then at $77.55. First support is seen at $75.70 and
then at the contract low of $74.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were up 6
1/4 cents at $8.22 3/4 today. Prices were near mid-range
and scored a new contract high today. Featured again today
was position evening and some fresh speculative buying
ahead of what most expect to be a very bullish USDA supply
and demand report on Friday morning. It would not surprise
me to see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario play
out Friday, following the USDA report. The corn bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a steep
uptrend is in place from the June low. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
psychological resistance at $8.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $7.80. First
resistance for December corn is seen at today’s contract
high of $8.29 3/4 and then at $8.35. First support is seen
at today’s low of $8.15 3/4 and then at $8.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were up 48 1/2
cents at $16.29 3/4 a bushel today. Prices were nearer the
session high. Featured again today was position evening and
some fresh speculative buying ahead of what most expect to
be a bullish USDA supply and demand report on Friday
morning. It would not surprise me to see a “buy the rumor,
sell the fact” scenario play out Friday, following the USDA
report. Soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing November prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $16.63 1/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $15.55 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $16.33 and then at $16.50. First support is seen at
$16.15 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

In late trading, December soybean meal was up $16.60 at
$494.30 today. Prices were near the session high. Meal
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$503.60. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $467.30. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $496.20 and then at $500.00.
First support is seen at $490.00 and then at $485.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

In late trading, December bean oil was up 78 points at
53.17 cents today. Prices were near the session high and
saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. But prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 54.00 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 51.84 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.25 cents and then
at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at 53.00 cents and
then at 52.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was up 12 3/4
cents at $9.26 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session
high late today. The wheat market is still closely
following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $9.53 1/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$8.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$9.32 3/4 and then at $9.53 1/4. First support lies at
today’s low of $9.12 1/2 and then at $9.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was up 9 3/4 cents
at $9.37 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $9.57 1/4. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.74. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.43 1/2 and then at $9.57 1/4. First
support is seen at today’s low of $9.25 1/2 and then at
$9.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

In late trading, December oats were up 8 1/4 cents at $3.85
1/2 today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$3.92 1/4. First support lies at $3.80 and then at today’s
low of $3.78 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $3.90 and then at $3.92 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 17 points at 20.92
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit another fresh five-week low. The sugar bears
have the near-term technical advantage and have gained
downside momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 22.00 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 20.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at 21.00 cents and then at today’s high of 21.29
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 20.78 cents
and then at 20.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September coffee closed down 295 points at 167.55 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh five-week low. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and are gaining downside momentum.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 177.50
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
162.50 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 170.00
cents and then at today’s high of 171.35 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 166.25 cents and then at
165.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September cocoa closed up $1 at $2,464 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. Cocoa bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $2,533. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $2,479 and then at $2,500. First
support is seen at $2,434 and then at today’s low of
$2,415. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December cotton closed down 16 points at 75.84 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit
another fresh 2.5-month high early on. Price action
recently has produced a bullish upside “breakout” from the
recent choppy and sideways trading range. Bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. The cotton bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 79.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 77.07 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 75.45 cents and then at 74.21
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September orange juice closed steady at $1.1465 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.1675. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the May low of $1.0000. First
resistance is seen at $1.1520 and then at $1.1675. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.1350 and then at
$1.1145. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September lumber futures closed up $0.10 at $293.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $280.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $296.70. First resistance is seen at
$295.00 and then at $296.70. First support is seen at
$290.00 and then at $288.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $2.70 an ounce
at $1,618.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today amid more quiet summertime doldrums. There is not
much new in this market as the choppy and range-bound
trading action continues. The gold market bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
$1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of $1,559.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $1,621.30 and then at last week’s high of
$1,633.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,612.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,605.30.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.01 an ounce at $28.09
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Not
much new in silver, either, as prices are choppy and range-
bound. Silver bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$28.21 and then at last week’s high of $28.335. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $27.835 and then at this
week’s low of $27.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed steady at 342.10 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 345.70 cents and then at 347.50 cents. First support is
seen at 340.00 cents and then at 337.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $0.16 a barrel
at $93.51 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Crude
oil bulls still have upside technical momentum and have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old
price uptrend has been re-established on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $96.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $86.92. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $94.21 and then at this week’s high of $94.72 and
then at $95.00. First support is seen at $92.82 and then at
$91.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed up 359 points at $3.0522
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit
another fresh three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.8250. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $3.0522 and then at $3.0750. First support
is seen at $3.0250 and then at today’s low of $3.0043.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 252 points at
$3.0056 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and closed at a fresh three-month high close. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.8500. First resistance is seen at
this weeks’ high of $3.0225 and then at $3.0500. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.9634 and then at
$2.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September natural gas closed down 1.1 cents at $2.922
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $3.277. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $2.706. First resistance is seen
at $3.00 and then at $3.065. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.876 and then at this week’s low of
$2.801. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 61 points at 1.2299 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The Euro bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage as the bulls are
fading again. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2392 and
then at this week’s high of 1.2450 and then at 1.2500. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.2270 and then at
1.2250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 12 points at 1.2730
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has
turned choppy. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high
of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2600.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2779 and then
at this week’s high of 1.2803. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2693 and then at 1.2650. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 48 points at 1.0244
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0318 and then at this week’s high of 1.0366 and then at
1.0400. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0221 and
then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 17 points at
1.0545 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did
hit a fresh contract high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.0700. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of 1.0578 and then at 1.0600. Next
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0492 and then at
1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 30 points at 1.0071
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh three-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0150. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9850. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0080
and then at 1.0100. First support is seen at 1.0000 and
then at .9979. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed down 19 points at 1.5629
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field
and confined to a well-defined trading range. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5456. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5685 and then at
1.5700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5603 and
then at this week’s low of 1.5545. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 27 points at
82.71 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
84.24. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 82.86 and then at 83.00. First support is seen at
82.50 and then at today’s low of 82.27. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 8/32 at 148 4/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-
month low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading badly and need to show
fresh power soon. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 146 28/32. The
next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 150 16/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 148 15/32 and
then at 149 even. First support is seen at today’s low of
147 10/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 2.5 (32nds) at 133.13.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh five-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh
power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 134.29.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 133.00.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.18.0 and then at 133.25.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 133.05.0 and then at
133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today in more quiet, summertime trading. The indexes
this week have hit three-month highs. Bulls have upside
near-term technical momentum as the stock market is
“climbing a wall of worry.”

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 11.00 at 2,717.75.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the April high of 2,791.50. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 2,516.50. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,723.00 and then
at 2,750.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,703.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,671.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.10 at 1,400.30.
Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a fresh
three-month high close. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,403.90 and then at 1,411.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,394.00 and then
at this week’s low of 1,387.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 18 points at 13,138 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh
three-month high close. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,400. First resistance in the Dow
lies at this week’s high of 13,160 and then at 13,200.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 13,057 and then
at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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