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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 17

Dec 18, 2012

Monday Evening, December 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.90 at
$133.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh nine-month high today. The key “outside
markets” were mildly bullish for the cattle market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower and crude oil
prices were modestly higher. Cash cattle market
fundamentals are also on the upswing. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage and have now gained good upside
near-term technical momentum. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $135.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $131.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $133.65 and
then at $134.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$132.82 and then at $132.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March feeder cattle closed up $1.22 at $156.25 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh 5.5-
month high today. The bulls have gained solid upside near-
term technical momentum recently and have the solid overall
chart advantage. The next upside price breakout objective
for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $158.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $153.00. First
resistance is seen at $156.50 and then at $157.00. First
support is seen at $156.00 and then at today’s low of
$155.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs closed down $0.65 at $84.75 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Trading has turned
choppy. A three-month-old uptrend has been re-established
on the daily chart. The bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to
keep it. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at the November contract high of $88.25. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $83.20. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $85.40 and then at last week’s high of $86.25.
First support is seen at $84.50 and then at $84.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were down 7 cents at 7.23 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Recent slack U.S. export demand has hurt the bullish camp.
Corn bears have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $7.14 1/4. First resistance for March
corn is seen at $7.30 and then at $7.35. First support is
seen at the November low of $7.14 1/4 and then at $7.10.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

January soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents at $15.01 1/2 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit a
fresh five-week high today. The key “outside markets” were
mildly bullish for the soybean market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was slightly lower and crude oil prices were
modestly higher. Soybean bulls now have the slight near-
term technical advantage and have gained upside momentum as
a four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing January prices
above solid technical resistance at $15.50 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$14.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.08
3/4 and then at $15.25. First support is seen at today’s
low of $14.92 1/2 and then at $14.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

March soybean meal was up $0.50 at $454.10 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range and hit a fresh five-week
high. Meal bulls have gained upside near-term technical
momentum and have the slight near-term technical advantage.
A four-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $471.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $431.30. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $457.90 and then at $460.00. First support is seen
at $450.00 and then at $448.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

March bean oil was down 19 points at 50.23 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The bean oil
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of 51.85 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
49.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
50.75 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 49.87 cents and then at last week’s low
of 49.37 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 4 3/4 cents at $8.09 1/2
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Prices last week hit a 5.5-month low. Wheat bears have the
near-term technical advantage as a five-week-old downtrend
is in place on the daily bar chart. The recent pause at
lower price levels is not bullish. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the November low of
$8.45 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below psychological support at $8.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $8.19 and then at $8.25 1/2. First
support lies at $8.00 and then at $7.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 7 cents at $8.57 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and hit
another fresh five-month low today. HRW bears have downside
momentum and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$8.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.67
1/4 and then at $8.75. First support is seen at today’s low
of $8.53 1/2 and then at $8.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

March oats were down 1/2 cent at $3.89 1/4 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.67 1/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $4.05. First support lies at $3.85 and then at today’s
low of $3.82 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $3.95 and then at $3.98. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 35 points at 19.36 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more
short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets”
were mildly bullish for the sugar market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was slightly lower and crude oil prices were
modestly higher. Sugar bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but the bulls are gaining some
upside momentum. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
18.31 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
19.45 cents and then at 19.77 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.14 cents and then at 19.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed up 200 points at 145.15 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market after prices Friday hit a contract low and
2.5-year low. The key “outside markets” were mildly bullish
for the coffee market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
slightly lower and crude oil prices were modestly higher.
The coffee bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout objective
for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 157.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 140.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 147.50 cents and then at 150.00
cents. First support is seen at Friday’s contract low of
142.20 cents and then at 140.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

March cocoa closed down $21 at $2,414 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The cocoa bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,500. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of $2,369. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of $2,453 and then at $2,475.
First support is seen at $2,400 and then at $2,385.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March cotton closed up 76 points at 75.85 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-month high. The key “outside markets” were mildly
bullish for the cotton market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was slightly lower and crude oil prices were modestly
higher. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 76.39 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the December low of 73.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 76.39 cents and then
at 77.00 cents. First support is seen at 75.00 cents and
then at 74.37 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January orange juice closed down 105 points at $1.3685
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some
profit taking. Prices last week hit a fresh seven-month
high. FCOJ bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.4500. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.3000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.3860 and then at last week’s
high of $1.4015. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1.3415 and then at $1.3290. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

January lumber futures closed up $3.20 at $358.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today but did hit
another contract high and 6.5-year high. The lumber bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $342.10. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $370.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
$360.70 and then at $362.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $356.90 and then at $355.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $1.20 an ounce
at $1,698.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw some mild short covering and bargain hunting.
The key “outside markets” were mildly bullish for gold
today, as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower and
crude oil prices were modestly higher. Gold bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded
recently and need to show fresh power soon to keep their
technical edge. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $1,725.00. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$1,674.70. First resistance is seen at $1,710.00 and then
at 1,720.00. First support is seen at $1,690.00 and then at
the December low of $1,684.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures closed down $0.019 an ounce at $32.28
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
five-week low. The key “outside markets” were mildly
bullish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was
slightly lower and crude oil prices were modestly higher.
That did limit selling pressure. The silver bulls have
faded recently. Some near-term chart damage has been
inflicted in silver and the silver bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $33.875 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$32.00. First resistance is seen at $32.50 and then at
Friday’s high of $32.795. Next support is seen at today’s
low of $32.08 and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 160 points at 366.70 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some more
profit taking. The key “outside markets” were mildly
bullish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was
slightly lower and crude oil prices were modestly higher.
That did limit selling pressure in copper. Copper bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
355.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
369.30 cents and then at last week’s high of 372.10 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 364.75 cents and
then at the December low of 363.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $0.65 a barrel at
$87.37 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
A weaker U.S. dollar index was mildly bullish for crude.
Crude oil bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
$90.33 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the November low of
$84.53. First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at
$89.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $86.48 and
then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

January heating oil closed down 152 points at $2.9655
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.8500. First resistance lies at $3.0000 and
then at $3.0300. First support is seen at $2.9416 and then
at $2.9200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 7 points at
$2.6614 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
in quiet trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of $2.7627.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the December low of $2.5893.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.6816 and
then at $2.7000. First support is seen at $2.6500 and then
at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January natural gas closed up 4.4 cents at $3.358 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering after prices Friday hit a 2.5-month low. Nat gas
bears have the near-term technical advantage. A steep four-
week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
and September lows of $3.20. First resistance is seen at
$3.407 and then at $3.45. First support is seen at $3.30
and then at last week’s low of $3.261. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 1 point at 1.3170 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today but did hit a fresh 7.5-month high
early on. The bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.3300. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high of 1.3205 and then at 1.3250. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.3156 and then at 1.3100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 58 points at 1.1934
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2100. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1750.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1968 and then
at 1.2000. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1881
and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 2 points at 1.0909 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh seven-
month high. The Swissy bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0750. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0928 and then at 1.0950. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 14 points at 1.0476
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh contract high today. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.0600. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0360. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of 1.0520 and then at 1.0550. Next
support is seen at 1.0436 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 28 points at 1.0145
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at 1.0200. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 1.0158 and then at 1.0175. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0099 and then at
1.0050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March British pound closed up 33 points at 1.6197
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a 10-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 1.6281.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the December low of
1.5998. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6213
and then at 1.6250. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.6153 and then at 1.6100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 3 points at 79.62
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quiet trading.
The bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 81.05. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the October low of 79.20. Next
resistance lies at 80.00 and then at 80.23. First support
is seen at last week’s low of 79.40 and then at 79.20.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 7/32 at 147 4/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh five-
week low today. Bulls have faded badly and the bears now
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 146 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 149
16/32. First resistance is seen at 148 even and then at
today’s high of 148 12/32. First support is seen at today’s
low of 147 3/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 15.0 (32nds) at 132.10.5
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh five-week low. Bulls are fading badly and
have lost their near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 133.08.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
131.24.0. First resistance is seen at 132.16.0 and then at
today’s high of 132.24.5. First support is seen at today’s
low of 132.10.0 and then at 132.00.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Attention of the market place remains on the
U.S. “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is
fast approaching. There now appears to be some movement on
the Republicans’ side toward wanting to do a deal. House
Speaker Boehner and President Obama met again Monday
morning on the matter. The market place reckons odds are a
bit higher than not that there will be a last-minute
agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff.
The overall situation remains a bearish drag on many
markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets.
In overnight news, European stocks and the Euro currency
were weaker on more dour Euro zone economic news. Euro zone
exports were reported down 1.4%, month-on-month, in
October. Also, the German Bundesbank said Monday the German
economy has seen significant contraction heading into the
end of the year. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party was
swept into power over the weekend, which means Japan’s
monetary policy will remain very accommodative. The
Japanese yen was sharply lower against the U.S. dollar
Monday. Along with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to
easy money announced last week and the European Central
Bank being in the same position, such are bullish
underlying factors for the raw commodity markets in the
coming months.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 36.50 at 2,659.75
today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored
a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,750.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,600.00. First resistance is
seen at 2,675.00 and then at 2,700.00. First support is
seen at 2,625.00 and then at today’s low of 2,609.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 16.80 at 1,426.00.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the September high of 1,467.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the December low of 1,397.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1,433.00 and then
at 1,450.00. First support is seen at 1,415.00 and then at
last week’s low of 1,406.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 93 points at 13,180. Prices
closed near the session high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 12,915. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,200 and then at 13,240.
First support is seen at 13,150 and then at today’s low of
13,090. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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