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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 12

Dec 13, 2011

Monday Evening, December 12-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.20 at
$118.65 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
after hitting a fresh six-month low early on. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the cattle market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Price action in
the cattle market today may have produced a bullish selling
“exhaustion tail,” whereby the sellers become exhausted at
lower price levels and the market rebounds well off the
daily spike low. Now, today’s low of $116.90 becomes very
strong chart support. The cattle market bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Serious chart
damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $120.50. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
today’s low of $116.90. First resistance is seen at $119.00
and then at $119.50. First support is seen at $118.00 and
then at $117.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.67 at $144.82 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh nearly three-month low early on today. Price action
today also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart as short covering was featured. Serious near-term
chart damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $147.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$143.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$145.00 and then at $145.60. First support is seen at
$144.00 and then at today’s low of $143.17. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

February lean hogs closed up $0.17 at $86.60 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-month
low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the hog
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push
and close prices above solid chart resistance at $88.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $85.05. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $87.20 and then at $87.70. First support is
seen at $86.00 and then at today’s low of $85.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 1/4 cent at $5.94
1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the corn market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The corn bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.16.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$5.75. First resistance for March corn is seen at $6.00 and
then at last week’s high of $6.03 1/4. First support is
seen at $5.90 and then at today’s low of $5.85. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

January soybeans closed up 5 cents at $11.12 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a
fresh 14-month low early on today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the soybean market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Soybean bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $11.50 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $11.00. First
resistance is seen at $11.20 and then at $11.25. First
support is seen at $11.00 and then at today’s low of
$10.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March soybean meal closed up $3.00 at $284.20 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on tepid short
covering after hitting a fresh 17-month low early on. Meal
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $296.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $285.00 and then at $288.90. First
support is seen at today’s low of $279.80 and then at
$277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March bean oil closed down 26 points at 49.72 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the bean oil market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were lower. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 51.60
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of 48.78 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.14 cents and
then at 50.50 cents. First support is seen at 49.50 cents
and then at today’s low of 49.09 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents at $5.94
1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the wheat market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Wheat bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
Friday hit a fresh contract low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.32 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.01 3/4 and then at $6.15. First support
lies at last week’s low of $5.84 and then at $5.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents at $6.52 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $6.88. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.59
and then at $6.72. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $6.50 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

March oats closed up 4 3/4 cents at $3.06 3/4 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Oats bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at the contract low of $2.84 3/4.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at $3.00 and
then at today’s low of $2.98 3/4. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $3.09 3/4 and then at $3.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 23 points at 23.17 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the sugar market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower. Trading in sugar
has turned choppy recently. Sugar bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
24.25 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the November low of 22.71 cents. First resistance is
seen at 23.50 cents and then at today’s high of 23.89
cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 22.99
cents and then at 22.71 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March coffee closed down 755 points at 220.20 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 11-month
low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the coffee
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower.
Coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh downside momentum today. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 235.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 210.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 222.50 cents and
then at 225.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 220.20 cents and then at 217.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

March cocoa closed up $114 at $2,181 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit another fresh
contract low early on. Price action today did score a
potentially bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar
chart today, which would be confirmed by follow-through
buying on Tuesday and would also be an early clue that a
market low is in place. The cocoa bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, the
market was well overdone on the downside and due for at
least a good corrective upside bounce. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,350.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
today’s contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen at
$2,200 and then at today’s high of $2,246. First support is
seen at $2,150 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March cotton closed down 327 points at 87.16 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
12-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
the cotton market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower. Cotton bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum
today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 93.93 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at 85.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 87.06 cents and
then at 86.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 88.00
cents and then at 89.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

January orange juice closed down 315 points at $1.6680
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
two-month. The bulls are fading badly as serious chart
damage has been inflicted. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the FCOJ market today, as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were lower. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
$1.6000. First resistance is seen at $1.6750 and then at
$1.7000. First support is seen at $1.6500 and then at
today’s low of $1.6350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January lumber futures closed down $9.90 at $229.70 today.
Prices closed near the session low. The lumber bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage as trading
has turned very choppy. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $218.20. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $241.00.
First resistance is seen at $232.50 and then at $235.00.
First support is seen at $227.50 and then at $225.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $48.70 an
ounce at $1,668.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh six-week low. The stronger U.S.
dollar index and weaker crude oil prices pressured gold
today. Bulls have faded badly recently and near-term chart
damage has been inflicted as key chart support levels were
breached today. A 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart was also negated today. Now, prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $1,730.00. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is
seen at $1,685.00 and then at $1,700.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1,660.30 and then at $1,650.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March silver futures closed down $1.143 an ounce at $31.11
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower. Silver prices have been trending gently lower
in a choppy fashion for six weeks. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of $33.74 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $30.74. First resistance is seen at $31.50
and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$30.92 and then at $30.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 995 points 345.80 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply higher while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were lower. Bears have regained the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of 367.40
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 321.85 cents. First resistance is seen
at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 343.50 cents and then at 340.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $1.52 a barrel
at $97.89 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and did hit a fresh five-week low early on. The bulls
are fading but do still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of $103.37 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at today’s low of
$93.80. First resistance is seen at $99.00 and then at
$100.00. First support is seen at $97.00 and then at
$96.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January heating oil closed down 184 points at $2.8941
today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh
two-month low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on
the daily bar chart today. Bulls have faded badly recently.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above major psychological resistance at $3.0000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.8500. First resistance
lies at $2.9250 and then at $2.9500. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.8835 and then at $2.8500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 222 points at
$2.5739 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $2.6777. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.5000. First resistance is seen at $2.6000 and then at
today’s high of $2.6151. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2.5600 and then at last week’s low of $2.5476.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

January natural gas closed down 6.3 cents at $3.254 today.
Prices produced a rare gap-lower trade on the daily bar
chart, closed nearer the session high and did score a fresh
contract low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.00. First resistance is seen
at $3.30 and then at $3.40. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $3.217 and then at $3.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 181 points at 1.3200 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and hit a fresh 10-week low. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained fresh power today. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.3576. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at the October low of
1.3161. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3250 and
then at 1.3300. Next support is seen at 1.3161 and then at
1.3100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 66 points at 1.2865
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field,
but the bears did gain some downside momentum today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.3000. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.2812. First resistance is seen at 1.2900 and
then at today’s high of 1.2919. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2849 and then at 1.2812. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 150 points at 1.0690
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 10-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1058.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0500.
First resistance is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0800.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0669 and then at
1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 141 points at .9966
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading
has turned choppy and the bulls are fading. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of 1.0268.
The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9850.
First resistance is seen at 1.0000 and then at today’s high
of 1.0100. Next support is seen at today’s low of .9944 and
then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 69 points at .9729
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bulls have faded recently. Bears have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at last week’s high of .9923. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at .9650. First
resistance is seen at .9800 and then at .9850. First
support is seen at today’s low of .9702 and then at .9650.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March British pound closed down 81 points at 1.5566
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5758. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1.5415.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5647 and then
at 1.5700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5524
and then at 1.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 106 points at 80.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh 10-week high today. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have regained upside
momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 80.58. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 78.25. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 80.36 and then at 80.58.
First support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.66. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 23/32 141 28/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on fresh safe-haven
buying amid the ongoing EU turmoil. Bond market bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 139 24/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 145 8/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 142 14/32 and
then at last week’s high of 142 26/32. First support is
seen at 141 even and then at today’s low of 140 25/32.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 7.0 (32nds) at 130.02.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the November high of 130.20.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 128.20.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 130.11.0 and then at last week’s high of
130.15.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 129.21.0
and then at 129.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today as traders were again unnerved by the ongoing
EU debt crisis and the lack of a solid plan following last
week’s EU summit meeting.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 27.00 at
2,291.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the October high of 2,408.75. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
2,135.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,322.00 and then at the December high of 2,344.75. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 2,265.00 and then at
2,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 23.50 at 1,229.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a
mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the October high of
1,288.70. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
November low of 1,147.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,254.30 and then at last week’s high of
1,268.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,220.80
and then at 1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed down 200 points at 11,943 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 12,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,700. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 12,000 and then at 12,100. First support is seen at
today’s low of 11,870 and then at 11,800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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