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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 14

Dec 15, 2011

Wednesday Evening, December 14-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.20 at
$118.85 today. Prices closed near the session high and saw
more tepid short covering in a bear market. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for cattle today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Monday’s spike low of $116.90 is very strong
chart support. The cattle market bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $120.50. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $116.90. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $119.40 and then at $120.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $118.10 and then at
$117.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.15 at $145.70 today.
Prices closed near the session high today in quiet trading.
Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum this
week. But prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at $147.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$143.17. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$146.25 and then at $146.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $145.45 and then at $145.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

February lean hogs closed down $0.07 at $86.32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did close at a fresh
three-month low close today. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for hogs today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $88.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of $85.05. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$86.77 and then at this week’s high of $87.20 and then at
$87.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.70 and
then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 14 cents at $5.80
1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
closed at a fresh nine-month low close today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for corn today, as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. The corn bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained some fresh downside momentum
today. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above major psychological
resistance at $6.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance for
March corn is seen at $5.86 and then at $5.90. First
support is seen at the December low of $5.80 and then at
$5.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

January soybeans closed down 15 cents at $11.03 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh 14-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for beans today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Soybean bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the December high of $11.48 1/2 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $11.00.
First resistance is seen at $11.20 and then at this week’s
high of $11.27. First support is seen at today’s low of
$10.94 1/4 and then at $10.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March soybean meal closed down $2.60 at $285.30 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Meal bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $296.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$275.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$287.60 and then at this week’s high of $289.40 and then at
$290.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $282.00
and then at this week’s low of $279.80. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

March bean oil closed down 77 points at 48.86 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Bean oil bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 51.60 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and then at 49.50 cents.
First support is seen at today’s contract low of 48.71
cents and then at 48.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 18 1/2 cents at $5.82
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh contract low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for wheat today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Wheat bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$6.09 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is
seen at $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support lies at
today’s contract low of $5.79 and then at $5.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 20 1/2 cents at $6.35 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum
today. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $6.75. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$6.25. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at this
week’s high of $6.61. First support is seen at today’s
contract low of $6.35 and then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

March oats closed down 6 1/2 cents at $3.03 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Oats bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at the contract low of $2.84 3/4.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at $3.00 and
then at today’s low of $2.97 1/2. First resistance is seen
at $3.05 and then at $3.08. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 62 points at 22.82 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 6.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Sugar bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh
downside momentum today. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 24.25 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 22.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 23.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 23.53 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 22.68 cents and then at 22.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March coffee closed down 565 points at 217.30 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 12-month
low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for coffee
today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Coffee bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 232.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 210.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 220.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 222.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
217.25 cents and then at 215.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

March cocoa closed down $60 at $2,183 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart. The cocoa bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,350.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen at
$2,200 and then at $2,250. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2,155 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March cotton closed down 219 points at 85.12 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh 12-month low. Cotton bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. However, this market is
overdone on the downside and due for at least a corrective
bounce very soon. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 82.50 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 84.35 cents and then at 84.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 86.00 cents and then at
87.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

January orange juice closed up 40 points at $1.6775 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Chart damage has been inflicted recently. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $1.7250. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at
$1.6885 and then at this week’s high of $1.7035. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.6600 and then at
$1.6500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January lumber futures closed down $4.90 at $224.70 today.
Prices closed near the session low. The lumber bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the contract low of $218.20. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $235.00. First
resistance is seen at $227.50 and then at $230.00. First
support is seen at $222.50 and then at $220.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $77.00 an
ounce at $1,586.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh nearly three-month low. A firmer
U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil pressured
gold today. Much of the selling pressure in gold was panic
long liquidation. Gold prices did fall below their 200-day
moving average today for the first time since 2009. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted. Prices are in an
accelerating four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
today’s high of $1,645.80. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below major technical
support at the September low of $1,643.30. First resistance
is seen at $1,600.00 and then at $1,625.50. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1,565.70 and then at $1,550.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March silver futures closed down $2.38 an ounce at $28.88
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 2.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer while
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Serious near-term
technical damage was inflicted today. Silver prices have
been trending lower in a choppy fashion for six weeks.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below major technical support at the
September low of $26.185. First resistance is seen at
$29.50 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at the
October low of $28.50 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 1,535 points 328.80 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Copper
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and
gained fresh downside momentum today. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below major psychological support at 300.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at 330.00 cents and then at 335.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 325.65 cents
and then at the November low of 321.85 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $5.21 a barrel
at $94.91 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh five-week low. Serious near-term chart
damage was inflicted today. The crude market was pressured
by EU debt concerns and by the stronger U.S. dollar index.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at $96.00 and
then at $97.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$94.21 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January heating oil closed down 1,013 points at $2.8275
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
nine-week low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage
and gained fresh downside momentum today. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.9500. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at the October low of $2.6850. First
resistance lies at $2.8500 and then at $2.8750. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.8175 and then at
$2.8000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 1,270 points
at $2.4984 today. Prices closed near the session low and
hit a fresh three-week low today. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh downside
momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.6000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at the
November low of $2.4480. First resistance is seen at
$2.5250 and then at $2.5500. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.4880 and then at $2.4480. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

January natural gas closed down 14.2 cents at $3.137 today.
Prices produced closed near the session low and scored
another contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.40. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.00. First resistance is seen
at $3.20 and then at $3.25. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $3.126 and then at $3.05. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 57 points at 1.2999 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low again today and hit another fresh 11-month
low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3300. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2750. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3083 and then at 1.3150.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2965 and then at
1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 9 points at 1.2843
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-week low. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field, but the bears have gained some
downside momentum this week. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.3000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2812.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2864 and then
at 1.2900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2824
and then at 1.2812. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 78 points at 1.0521
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh 10-month low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
downside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1058. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at
1.0600 and then at today’s high of 1.0631. First support is
seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 114 points at .9806
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
last week’s high of 1.0268. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at .9700. First resistance is seen at
.9900 and then at 1.0000. Next support is seen at today’s
low of .9780 and then at .9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 70 points at .9598
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bulls have faded recently. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9800. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of .9485. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9664 and then at
.9700. First support is seen at today’s low of .9573 and
then at .9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The March British pound closed down 23 points at 1.5455
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh nine-
week low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5758. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the October low of 1.5267.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5517 and then
at 1.5600. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5394
and then at 1.5300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 29 points at 81.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh 11-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and have regained upside momentum
recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 79.00.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 81.41 and then at
82.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 80.78 and
then at 80.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 11/32 144 14/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again again today and
hit a fresh three-week high on fresh safe-haven buying amid
the sell off in the stock market and EU debt turmoil. Bond
market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 140 25/32. The next upside technical objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 145 8/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 144 17/32 and then at
145 even. First support is seen at 144 even and then at 143
9/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 9.5 (32nds) at 130.25.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
three-month high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 131.05.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at this week’s low of 129.21.0.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 130.27.5 and
then at 131.05.0. First support is seen at 120.08.5 and
then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower again today and near their daily lows as traders were
in a “risk off” mood today. Bears are gaining downside
technical momentum in the stock indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 38.25 at
2,229.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh two-week low. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the December high of 2,344.75. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the November low of
2,135.75. First resistance is seen at 2,250.00 and then at
today’s high of 2,26.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of 2,216.00 and then at 2,200.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 13.90 at 1,206.30.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh two-week low. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
December high of 1,268.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the November low of 1,147.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1,226.30 and then at 1,243.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,203.00 and then
at 1,180.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The Dow futures closed down 133 points at 11,762 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh two-week low. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the December high of 12,245. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,700. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 11,800 and then at today’s high of 11,840. First
support is seen at today’s low of 11,735 and then at
11,700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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