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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 20

Dec 21, 2011

Tuesday Evening, December 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.85 at
$120.65 today. Prices closed near the session low on a
profit-taking, corrective pullback from limit up gains on
Monday. The bulls still have some near-term technical
momentum following Monday’s limit gains. Bulls and bears
are on a level overall near-term technical playing field.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$122.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $118.50. First
resistance is seen at $121.00 and then at Monday’s high of
$121.50. First support is seen at $120.00 and then at last
week’s high of $119.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.20 at $147.52 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw a
corrective pullback from solid gains scored on Monday.
Bulls have regained upside technical momentum recently. The
next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above technical resistance at the December
high of $149.27. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at $145.00. First resistance is seen at
$148.00 and then at $148.50. First support is seen at
$147.00 and then at today’s low of $146.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

February lean hogs closed down $0.25 at $84.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Friday hit a
fresh seven-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at $87.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $82.62. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $84.35 and then at
this week’s high of $84.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of $83.92 and then at $83.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 6 1/2 cents at
$6.07 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit another fresh three-week high. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply higher. Short covering and bargain
hunting were featured today. Some dry weather in South
American corn regions was also bullish today. The corn bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.16. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $5.76 1/4. First resistance for March
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.08 1/2 and then at
$6.16. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s
low of $5.96 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March soybeans closed up 8 1/4 cents at $11.55 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. More short covering and bargain
hunting were seen today. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for soybeans today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
sharply higher. Some dry weather in South American soybean
regions was also bullish today. Soybean bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated
today. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $11.75 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.59
1/2 and then at $11.75. First support is seen at today’s
low of $11.45 and then at $11.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

March soybean meal closed up $2.00 at $298.50 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh four-week
high on short covering and bargain hunting. Meal bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$310.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of $279.80. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $300.50 and then at $302.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $296.00 and then at
this week’s low of $293.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March bean oil closed up 45 points at 49.87 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering and
bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher.
Bean oil bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 51.60 cents. Bean oil bears'
next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 48.71 cents. First resistance is seen at
50.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 50.44 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.50 cents and
then at 49.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents at $6.07 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for wheat today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply higher. Wheat bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $6.32 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.09 and
then at $6.20. First support lies at $6.00 and then at
today’s low of $5.95 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.68 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering and bargain hunting. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $6.88. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.25. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at
$6.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.63 and
then at this week’s low of $6.49. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

March oats closed up 1 3/4 cents at $3.09 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
and bargain hunting. Oats bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $2.96 1/4.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at today’s
low of $3.04 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $3.02.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $3.11 1/2
and then at $3.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 32 points at 23.41 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
sharply higher. Sugar bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of 24.25 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 22.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 23.70
cents and then at 24.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 23.11 cents and then at 23.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March coffee closed up 140 points at 220.85 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Short covering in a
bear market was featured. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for coffee today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
sharply higher. Coffee bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 232.50 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 210.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 224.05 cents
and then at 225.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 219.00 cents and then at 215.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

March cocoa closed up $114 at $2,184 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a
bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher.
Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $2,274. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen at
$2,200 and then at $2,250. First support is seen at $2,150
and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March cotton closed down 44 points at 86.65 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Cotton bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 85.90 cents and then at last week’s low of
84.35 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
88.14 cents and then at 89.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

March orange juice closed up 120 points at $1.6530 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for FCOJ today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply higher. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$1.7000. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the December low of $1.6000. First resistance is
seen at $1.6700 and then at $1.6800. First support is seen
at $1.6400 and then at this week’s low of $1.6285.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up $7.90 at $245.00 today.
Prices saw more short covering and hit a fresh five-week
high today. While the lumber bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage the bulls did gain upside
momentum today. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$224.70. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $254.00. First
resistance is seen at $247.50 and then at $250.00. First
support is seen at $241.00 and then at $240.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $20.80 an ounce
at $1,617.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today on short covering and bargain hunting. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for gold today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were sharply
higher. Still, near-term chart damage has been inflicted
recently. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern
could be forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
technical breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $1,650.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below major
technical support at the September low of $1,543.30. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,620.80 and then at
$1,630.00. First support is seen at $1,600.00 and then at
this week’s low of $1,585.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March silver futures closed up $0.676 an ounce at $29.55
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were sharply higher. Near-term
technical damage has been inflicted recently. Silver prices
are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below major technical support
at the September low of $26.185. First resistance is seen
at $30.00 and then at $30.50. Next support is seen at
$29.00 and then at today’s low of $28.695. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 615 points 337.00 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for copper today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were sharply higher. Copper bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below major psychological support at 300.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 339.00
cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at
335.00 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $3.30 a barrel at
$97.34 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
A weaker U.S. dollar, higher U.S. stocks and some unrest in
Khazakstan oil regions boosted crude today. Recent chart
damage was mostly repaired with today’s strong price gains.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $92.70. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $97.61 and then at $98.00. First
support is seen at $97.00 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

February heating oil closed up 759 points at $2.8662 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.9500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.7500. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $2.8782 and then at $2.9000. First support
is seen at $2.8500 and then at $2.8250. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 926 points at
$2.5898 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering. Bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $2.6821.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of $2.4677.
First resistance is seen at $2.6000 and then at $2.6250.
First support is seen at $2.5500 and then at $2.5250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

February natural gas closed up 3.8 cents at $3.181 today.
Prices produced closed nearer the session high and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.00. First
resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at $3.30. First
support is seen at Monday’s contract low of $3.10 and then
at $3.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 62 points at 1.3088 today. Prices closed near
mid-range again today and saw short covering in a bear
market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.3300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2750. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3142 and
then at 1.3200. Next support is seen at 1.3000 and then at
last week’s low of 1.2965. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 12 points at 1.2868 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.3000. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2812. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2893 and then at last week’s high of 1.2919. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2824 and then at
1.2800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 53 points at 1.0757 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Tepid short covering in
a bear market was featured. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1058. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.0813 and then at 1.0850. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1.0683 and then at 1.0644.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 149 points at .9968
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the December
high of 1.0268. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of .9761. First resistance is
seen at 1.0000 and then at 1.0057. Next support is seen at
.9900 and then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 56 points at .9686
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
short covering. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
.9800. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the last week’s low of .9573. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of .9725 and then at .9800. First support is
seen at .9650 and then at today’s low of .9608. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

The March British pound closed up 140 points at 1.5646
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.5758. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5394. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5688 and then at
1.5758. First support is seen at 1.5600 and then at 1.5500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 56 points at 80.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at 79.00.
Next resistance lies at 80.58 and then at today’s high of
80.94. First support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 2 full points at 144 1/32
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
profit-taking pressure amid a “risk on” trading day. No
serious chart damage occurred today. Bond market bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
142 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the September high of 146 15/32. First resistance is seen
at 145 even and then at the November high of 145 8/32.
First support is seen at 143 24/32 and then at 143 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 22.5 (32nds) at 130.20.5
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
profit taking. No significant chart damage occurred today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.00.0. First resistance is seen at 131.00.0 and then at
today’s high of 131.10.5. First support is seen at today’s
low of 130.19.0 and then at 130.14.5. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
sharply higher today. It was a “risk on” trading day the
market place today, following some better U.S. homes sales
data and a well subscribed Italian bond auction. Stock
index bulls regained some fresh upside near-term technical
momentum today.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 56.75 at 2,269.25
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the December high of 2,344.75.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 2,135.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,283.25 and then at 2,300.00. First
support is seen at 2,250.00 and then at 2,225.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 37.50 at 1,236.50.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the December high of 1,268.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1,147.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,237.20 and
then at 1,250.00. First support is seen at 1,225.00 and
then at 1,210.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 328 points at 12,031 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of 12,245. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 11,500. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,040 and
then at 12,100. First support is seen at 12,000 and then at
11,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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