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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 22

Dec 23, 2011

Thursday Evening, December 22-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up the $3.00
limit at $123.45 today. Prices hit a fresh three-week high
today as futures have rallied sharply on improving cash
cattle market fundamentals. The key “outside markets” were
also bullish for the cattle market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker, while crude oil and stock index
prices were firmer. The cattle bulls have also gained good
upside near-term technical momentum this week and have
regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $124.35. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $120.25. First
resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at $124.35. First
support is seen at $123.00 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed up $2.80 at $149.65 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
five-week high. The market got a boost from the limit gains
in fat cattle futures. Bulls now have solid upside
technical momentum. The next upside price objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical
resistance at the November high of $150.87. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $146.50.
First resistance is seen at $150.00 and then at $150.87.
First support is seen at $149.00 and then at $148.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs closed up $1.32 at $84.60 today. Prices
closed near the session high today on short covering in a
bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the
hogs today, as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower,
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were higher. Hog
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$85.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $82.62. First resistance is seen at
$85.00 and then at $85.50. First support is seen at $84.00
and then at today’s low of $83.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed steady at $6.16 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit
another fresh five-week high. More short covering and
bargain hunting were featured today. A strong weekly USDA
export sales report was bullish for corn today. Recent dry
weather in South American corn regions is also bullish for
corn. The corn bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but the bulls are gaining some upside
technical momentum to suggest a market low is in place.
Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.40.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $5.76 1/4. First resistance for March
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.25 and then at $6.30.
First support is seen at today’s low of $6.11 1/2 and then
at $6.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March soybeans closed up 7 cents at $11.70 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit another fresh five-week high. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the beans today, as the U.S.
dollar index was slightly lower, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were higher. More short covering and
bargain hunting were seen in beans today. Some dry weather
in South American soybean regions is bullish for soybeans.
Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, the bean bulls have gained fresh upside
technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in
place. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above psychological resistance at $12.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below technical support at
$11.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.77
1/4 and then at $11.85. First support is seen at today’s
low of $11.53 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $11.42.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March soybean meal closed down $1.00 at $303.70 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another
fresh five-week high early on. Meal bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are
gaining upside momentum to suggest a market low is in
place. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $310.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $305.70 and then at $307.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $299.40 and then at
$297.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March bean oil closed up 97 points at 50.77 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high. Short covering was featured. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for bean oil today, as the
U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were higher. Bean oil bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 51.60 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of 48.71
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.83
cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at
50.44 cents and then at 50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents at $6.20 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh three-week high. More short covering and bargain
hunting were featured today. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for wheat today, as the U.S. dollar index was
slightly lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were higher. Wheat bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $6.32 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $5.77 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.25 3/4 and
then at $6.32. First support lies at today’s low of $6.11
1/2 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents at $6.72 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
tepid short covering and bargain hunting. Prices hit a
fresh three-week high early on today. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $6.88. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of $6.35. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.80 and then at $6.88. First support is
seen at $6.61 and then at this week’s low of $6.49.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March oats closed up 1 cent at $3.12 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-week high. More
short covering and bargain hunting was seen. Oats bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $2.96 1/4. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $3.22
1/2. First support lies at today’s low of $3.10 1/2 and
then at $3.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $3.14 and then at $3.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 16 points at 23.48 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for sugar
today, as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were higher.  Sugar
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the December high of 24.25 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 22.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 23.70 cents and then at 24.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 23.20 cents
and then at 23.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March coffee closed up 100 points at 220.90 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today on short covering in a bear
market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for coffee
today, as the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were higher. Coffee
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
232.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 210.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 223.40 cents and then at this week’s
high of 224.05 cents. First support is seen at 218.50 cents
and then at 215.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March cocoa closed down $34 at $2,210 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2,274. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $1,983. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,253 and then at
$2,274. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,192 and
then at $2,173. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March cotton closed up 40 points at 87.24 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today in more quiet
trading. Short covering in a bear market was featured. The
key “outside markets” were bullish for cotton today, as the
U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were higher. Cotton bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
82.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of
85.90 cents and then at last week’s low of 84.35 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 87.44 cents and
then at 88.29 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March orange juice closed up 70 points at $1.6390 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of $1.7000. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the December low of
$1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.6445 and then at $1.6600. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $1.6260 and then at $1.6100. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

January lumber futures closed down $1.20 at $241.00 today.
While the lumber bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage the bulls have gained some upside
momentum recently. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$224.70. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $254.00. First
resistance is seen at $245.00 and then at this week’s high
of $247.50. First support is seen at $240.00 and then at
$237.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $4.90 an ounce
at $1,608.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in
quieter, pre-holiday consolidative trading. Prices are
still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,650.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $1,562.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1,618.60 and then at $1,625.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,599.10 and then at
this week’s low of $1,585.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March silver futures closed down $0.179 an ounce at $29.05
today. Prices closed near the session low today in
consolidative trading. Silver prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $31.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major technical support at the September low of $26.185.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.685 and
then at $30.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$29.00 and then at this week’s low of $28.68. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 290 points 342.35 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today on more short
covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for copper
today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker, while crude oil
and the U.S. stock indexes were higher. Copper bears still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below major psychological support
at the November low of 323.25 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 343.70 cents and then at 345.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 336.00 cents
and then at 332.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $0.80 a barrel at
$99.47 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. A weaker
U.S. dollar and higher stock indexes supported crude today.
Crude oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage and
have gained fresh upside momentum this week. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above major psychological
resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $92.70. First resistance is seen at $100.00
and then at $101.00. First support is seen at $99.00 and
then at today’s low of $98.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

February heating oil closed down 99 points at $2.9077
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.9500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $2.7859. First resistance lies at today’s
high of $2.9343 and then at $2.9500. First support is seen
at $2.9000 and then at $2.8618. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 130 points at
$2.6345 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
more short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $2.6821.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of $2.4677.
First resistance is seen at $2.6500 and then at $2.6821.
First support is seen at today’s low of $2.6100 and then at
$2.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

February natural gas closed up 0.6 cents at $3.204 today.
Prices produced closed nearer the session high and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.00. First
resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at $3.30. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.142 and then at
Monday’s contract low of $3.10 and then at $3.05. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed steady at 1.3057 today. Prices closed nearer the
session low again today. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2750. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3133 and
then at this week’s high of 1.3224. Next support is seen at
1.3000 and then at last week’s low of 1.2965. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 16 points at 1.2815
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh seven-week low close. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.3000. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2812.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2845 and then
at this week’s high of 1.2903. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2810 and then at 1.2800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 2 points at 1.0702 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1058. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.0767 and then at this week’s high of
1.0839. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0666 and
then at 1.0644. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 59 points at 1.0037
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of
1.0268. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of .9761. First resistance is seen at 1.0057 and
then at this week’s high of 1.0119. Next support is seen at
today’s low of .9967 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 66 points at .9777
today. Prices closed near the session high today, hit a
fresh two-week high, and saw more short covering. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at .9800. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of .9573.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9782 and then
at .9800. First support is seen at today’s low of .9708 and
then at .9681. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed up 10 points at 1.5666
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
1.5761. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the December low
of 1.5394. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.5716 and then at 1.5761. First support is seen at 1.5600
and then at 1.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 80.31
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 79.00.
Next resistance lies at 80.58 and then at 80.94. First
support is seen at 80.00 and then at this week’s low of
79.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 7/32 at 143 15/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. No serious chart damage
has occurred this week but the bulls have faded and need to
show fresh power soon. Bond market bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 142 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the September
high of 146 15/32. First resistance is seen at 144 even and
then at 144 19/32. First support is seen at 143 even and
then at 142 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 1.5 (32nds) at 130.15.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. No significant chart
damage has occurred this week but the bulls are fading a
bit and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
130.23.0 and then at 130.28.5. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 130.09.5 and then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer higher today. Look for quieter and range-bound
trading until after the holidays.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 21.75 at 2,260.75
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the December high of 2,344.75.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 2,135.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,264.25 and then at 2,280.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,234.50 and then at
2,217.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 12.80 at 1,249.10.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the December
high of 1,268.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the November low of 1,147.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1,251.20 and then at 1,268.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,232.10 and then
at 1,223.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 79 points at 12,103 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week high.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of 12,245. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
11,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
12,120 and then at 12,200. First support is seen at today’s
low of 12,055 and then at 12,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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