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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 11

Feb 12, 2013

Monday Evening, February 11-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.32 at $130.45
today. Prices closed near the session high today short
covering in a bear market after hitting a fresh 7.5-month
low early on. However, today’s high-range close does hint
that the bears have become exhausted and that prices may be
at or near a near-term market low. Good buying strength on
Tuesday could mark a near-term low. But right now cattle
market bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a two-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $133.10. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at today’s low of
$128.95. First resistance is seen at $131.00 and then at
$131.50. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at
$129.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.90 at $144.10 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low. The feeder bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. However, I would not be surprised if
prices bottomed out this week. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $147.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$142.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$144.60 and then at $145.00. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $144.10 and then at 143.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

April lean hogs closed up $0.17 at $86.30 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh 4.5-month
low early on. The hog bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A choppy 2.5-month-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $88.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of $84.07. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$86.67 and then at $87.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of $85.70 and then at $85.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded down 7 1/4 cents
at $7.01 3/4 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the
session low and hit a fresh four-week low today. Traders
are still feeling the effects of a slightly bearish USDA
report last Friday. Bulls have faded badly recently. The
seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be setting in.
Corn bears have the near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.25. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00.
First resistance for March corn is seen at $7.10 and then
at today’s high of $7.13 3/4. First support is seen at
$7.00 and then at $6.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March soybeans were down 19 3/4 cents at $14.32 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were near the session
low and hit a fresh two-week low today. Bulls are fading
amid the grips of what could be the “February Break”
seasonal weakness phenomenon. Bean bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $14.15. First
resistance is seen at $14.40 and then at today’s high of
$14.50 3/4. First support is seen at $14.25 and then at
$14.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March soybean meal was down $8.80 at $413.60 today in late
trading. Prices were near the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today as the bulls are fading. Bears now have
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $441.20. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at
$415.00 and then at today’s high of $421.90. First support
is seen at today’s low of $413.00 and then at $410.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March bean oil was down 21 points at 51.23 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and did
hit a fresh three-week low today. Bulls are fading. Bean
oil bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of 53.57 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.40 cents and then
at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 50.77 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 12 1/2 cents at $7.43 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were near the session low
today and hit a fresh four-week low. Prices are in a three-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The seasonal
“February Break” phenomenon appears at hand in the wheat
market. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $8.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $7.36 1/4. First resistance is seen at $7.50
and then at today’s high of $7.59 1/2. First support lies
at $7.36 1/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 9 1/2 cents at $7.90 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near the session low and
hit a fresh three-week low today. HRW bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
$8.52. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of $7.85 1/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $8.03 1/2 and then at $8.15 3/4. First
support is seen at $7.85 1/4 and then at $7.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

March oats were down 4 1/2 cents at $3.81 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low today and
saw some profit taking after prices Friday hit a six-week
high. Oats bulls have the near-term technical advantage and
have gained good upside momentum recently. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.65. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.79 1/2 and then at $3.75.
First resistance is seen at $3.85 and then at today’s high
of $3.87 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 34 points at 18.48 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a fresh
two-year low. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 19.19 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 17.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at 18.61 cents and then at 18.89 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 18.16 cents and then at last week’s
low of 18.03 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

March coffee closed down 125 points at 139.80 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh contract low close. The coffee bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 150.80 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 130.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 141.90
cents and then at 143.30 cents. First support is seen at
the contract low of 139.40 cents and then at 137.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $49 at $2,183 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two-week low.
Bulls faded today. The cocoa bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 10-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of $2,313. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $2,155. First
resistance is seen at $2,200 and then at today’s high of
$2,237. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,170 and
then at $2,155. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed up 21 points at 82.88 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at the January
high of 84.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 78.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 83.32 cents and then
at 84.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and
then at 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March orange juice closed down 5 points at $1.2050 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. FCOJ bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1.2525. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.1250. First resistance
is seen at $1.2250 and then at $1.2395. First support is
seen at last week’s low of $1.1930 and then at $1.1800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed down $3.50 at $384.30 today.
Prices closed near the session low on profit taking. Bulls
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $370.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December contract high of
$397.00. First resistance is seen at $388.00 and then at
today’s high of $391.40. First support is seen at today’s
low of $381.00 and then at $380.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $17.50 an ounce
at $1,649.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit a fresh five-week low. Prices also dropped
below the key 200-day moving average, which comes in at
$1,670.00 level. Fresh near-term chart damage was inflicted
as price action today saw a bearish downside “breakout”
from a choppy and sideways trading range on the daily
chart. Bears now have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $1,687.00. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
$1,627.90. First resistance is seen at $1,660.00 and then
at today’s high of $1,670.30. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,644.10 and then at $1,640.00. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 4.5

March silver futures closed down $0.511 an ounce at $30.925
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
three-week low today. Bears have gained the slight near-
term technical advantage in silver. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $31.935 an ounce. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $30.745. First resistance
is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.25. Next support is seen
at today’s low of $30.82 and then at $30.745. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 350 points at 372.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. Copper bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 384.80 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at of 364.05 cents. First
resistance is seen at 375.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 376.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
370.80 cents and then at 368.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $1.21 a barrel at
$96.94 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. The crude bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $94.00. First resistance is seen at
$97.50 and then at $98.00. First support is seen at $96.00
and then at $95.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March heating oil closed down 61 points at $3.2323 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some mild profit
taking after prices Friday hit a 10-month high. Bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $3.3132.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $3.1000. First
resistance lies at last week’s high of $3.2575 and then at
$3.2750. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.2140
and then at $3.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 340 points at
$3.0252 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices
last week hit a contract high. The gasoline bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.10. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.8750. First resistance is seen at
$3.0400 and then at the contract high of $3.0698 and then
at $3.1000. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0254
and then at last week’s low of $2.9825. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

March natural gas closed up 1.3 cents at $3.284 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Nat gas bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the January high of $3.459.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of $3.10. First resistance is seen at $3.35 and then at
$3.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.207 and
then at $3.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 24 points at 1.3390 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today in quieter trading. The bulls have faded a
bit recently but still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.3715. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3250. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3431 and
then at 1.3500. Next support is seen at last week’s low of
1.3356 and then at 1.3321. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 73 points at 1.0704
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Prices are
hovering near the contract low. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep 4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There
are still no early clues of a market bottom being close at
hand. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1100. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.0819 and then at last week’s high of
1.0866. First support is seen at the contract low of 1.0633
and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 21 points at 1.0866
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild
profit taking. The Swissy bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the February high of 1.1090. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0750. First
resistance is seen at 1.0929 and then at 1.0950. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0872 and then at
1.0850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 29 points at 1.0257
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
are hovering near a 2.5-month low. Bulls have faded but
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. However, they need to show fresh power soon to
keep it. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s
high of 1.0435. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0100. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0297 and then at 1.0369. Next support is seen at last
week’s low of 1.0227 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

The March Canadian dollar closed down 22 points at .9942
today. Prices closed near mid-range today after hitting a
fresh two-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at last week’s high of 1.0059. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of .9889.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9965 and then
at 1.0000. First support is seen at today’s low of .9999
and then at .9889. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed down 135 points at 1.5659
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
are hovering near a 5.5-month low. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5874. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at 1.5700 and
then at 1.5750. First support is seen at last week’s low of
1.5627 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 6 points at 80.38
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh four-week high on short covering. The bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the dollar index bulls have gained upside
technical momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 80.99. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 79.40. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 80.47 and then at 80.75.
First support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2/32 at 143 24/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short
covering in a bear market. T-Bond bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 142 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 145
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 30/32
and then at last week’s high of 144 6/32. First support is
seen at today’s low of 143 8/32 and then at 143 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 2.5 (32nds) at 131.21.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the January high of 132.17.5. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 130.23.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.25.0 and then at last week’s high of
131.29.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 131.16.0
and then at 131.12.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes were
weaker today in late trading and saw some more mild profit
taking. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage as the indexes are not far from their recent
highs. Most Asian markets were closed Monday for the Lunar
New Year celebration. China is on holiday all week for the
Lunar New Year. Later this week the Group of 20 nations
meets in Moscow. A main topic will be currency values as
many industrialized nations have in recent months, or
longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their
economic growth. There is growing concern that “currency
wars” could break out if there is not some form of
agreement reached soon by the major nations. At present,
Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen continues
to plummet in value. Reports during the weekend said the
U.S. and European Union finance officials are considering
issuing a joint statement on the matter, designed to ease
growing worries and to send a warning to other countries.
In other news, the OECD said in a report Monday that the
European Union debt crisis is stabilizing amid Euro zone
economic improvement. The group also said there will be
economic growth divergence in the near future, with the
U.S., U.K., Japan and Brazil showing economic growth, while
China, Canada, France and India are set for economic
weakness in the coming months. There were no major U.S.
economic data released Monday. The pace picks up a bit
Tuesday.

In late trading the Nasdaq stock futures index were down
3.00 at 2,769.00 today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have
gained more upside momentum just recently. Prices today hit
a fresh four-month high as prices have seen a bullish
upside “breakout” from the recent choppy and sideways
trading range. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,700.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,779.50 and then at
2,800.00. First support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at
2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

In late trading the S&P 500 futures index was up 1.00 at
1,513.40. Prices were near mid-range and hit another fresh
five-year high today. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,525.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,467.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,516.80 and then at 1,525.00. First support is seen at
1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

In late trading the Dow futures were down 16 points at
13,910. Prices were nearer the session high in quiet
trading today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 14,000.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 13,500. First
resistance in the Dow lies at last week’s high of 13,970
and then at 14,000. First support is seen at 13,850 and
then at last week’s low of 13,805. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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