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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 6

Feb 07, 2013

Wednesday Evening, February 6-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.85 at
$131.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Cattle market bulls have faded and the bears have regained
the near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $133.10.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $129.45. First resistance is
seen at $132.00 and then at $132.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $131.25 and then at $131.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.97 at $147.55 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-
week low today. The feeder bulls have faded badly. Bears
now have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $149.65. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $146.85.
First resistance is seen at $148.00 and then at today’s
high of $148.80. First support is seen at today’s low of
$147.25 and then at 146.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

April lean hogs closed down $1.45 at $86.25 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh four-
month low. The hog bears today gained fresh downside near-
term technical momentum and the bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A choppy 2.5-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$88.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $84.07. First resistance is seen at
$86.90 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $86.20 and then at $85.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded down 7 1/4 cents
at $7.21 3/4 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the
session low. Bulls are fading. Bulls are worried the
seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be setting in.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and
demand report. Corn bears have regained the slight near-
term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $7.46 1/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.14
1/2. First resistance for March corn is seen at $7.25 and
then at today’s high of $7.29 1/2. First support is seen at
today’s low of $7.20 1/2 and then at $7.14 1/2. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

March soybeans were down 6 3/4 cents at $14.89 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and
demand report. Bean bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above psychological resistance at $15.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.15. First resistance is seen at $15.00 and
then at $15.08. First support is seen at today’s low of
$14.77 and then at $14.63 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

March soybean meal was down $1.50 at $437.00 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high and hit
another fresh six-week high today. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $450.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $420.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $439.10 and then at
$440.00. First support is seen at $435.00 and then at
today’s low of $432.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March bean oil was down 37 points at 52.61 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and saw
more profit taking from recent gains. Bean oil still bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
technical support at last week’s low of 51.60 cents. First
resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and then at 53.22 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 52.47 cents and
then at 52.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 1/2 cents at $7.61 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering after hitting a fresh four-week low early on
today. Wheat bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $8.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $7.36 1/4. First
resistance is seen at $7.66 1/2 and then at this week’s
high of $7.74. First support lies at $7.50 and then at
today’s low of $7.46 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was up 3 1/4 cents at $8.10 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on
short covering after hitting a fresh four-week low early on
today. HRW bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the January high of $8.52. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $7.85 1/4.
First resistance is seen at $8.19 3/4 and then at this
week’s high of $8.29 3/4. First support is seen at $8.00
and then at $7.85 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March oats were up 9 cents at $3.75 1/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high today and hit a
fresh six-week high. Oats bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and gained good upside momentum today.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $3.57 1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.90. First support lies at $3.70
and then at $3.65. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $3.78 3/4 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 33 points at 18.23 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh two-week low. The sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are hovering
near a 25-month low. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 19.19 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 18.06 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 18.61 cents and then
at 18.80 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
18.17 cents and then at 18.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

March coffee closed down 180 points at 142.25 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
five-week low. The coffee bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 150.80 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 141.25 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at 145.00 cents and then at 147.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 141.80 cents and then at
1412.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $25 at $2,221 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The cocoa bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the January high of $2,313. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
$2,155. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,252
and then at $2,280. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,209 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed down 21 points at 81.72 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The cotton
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA supply and demand
report. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 84.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
77.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.00 cents and
then at this week’s high of 82.90 cents. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 80.79 cents and then at 80.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March orange juice closed down 140 points at $1.2045 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ bulls have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Traders are
awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand
report. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.2500. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.1250. First resistance is
seen at $1.2200 and then at this week’s high of $1.2395.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.1955 and then at
$1.1800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures again closed up the $10.00 limit at
$389.00 today. Bulls have quickly regained solid upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest that new for-the-
move highs are in the offing. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $370.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the December contract high of $397.00. First resistance
is seen at $390.00 and then at $395.00. First support is
seen at $385.00 and then at $380.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $4.50 an ounce at
$1,678.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Bulls and bears are still on a level near-term
technical playing field amid recent choppy and sideways
trading on the daily chart. The gold bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,653.20.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,687.00
and then at $1,697.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $1,668.80 and then at this week’s low of $1,661.80.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

March silver futures closed down $0.06 an ounce at $31.81
today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Silver bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage as a bullish
symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $32.485 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $30.745.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $32.115 and
then at last week’s high of $32.30. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $31.60 and then at this week’s low of
$31.385. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 260 points at 374.40 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a higher U.S. dollar index. Prices Monday hit
a four-month high. Copper bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 384.80 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at of 364.05 cents. First
resistance is seen at 375.90 cents and then at this week’s
high of 379.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 373.10 cents and then at 371.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.08 a barrel at
$96.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after
hitting a fresh two-week low early on today. The crude
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $94.00. First resistance is seen at $97.00 and
then at $97.50. First support is seen at $96.00 and then at
today’s low of $95.04. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March heating oil closed down 35 points at $3.1878 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.2100. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.1000.
First resistance lies at this week’s high of $3.2011 and
then at $3.2100. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.1623 and then at this week’s low of $3.1433. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 110 points at
$3.0485 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Prices last week hit a contract high. Gasoline bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.10. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.8750. First resistance is seen at
the contract high of $3.0663 and then at $3.0800. First
support is seen at $3.0000 and then at $2.9626. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

March natural gas closed up 3.3 cents at $3.432 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. Short covering and bargain
hunting were featured again today. Nat gas bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
$3.646. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of $3.10. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.459 and then at $3.50. First support is
seen at today’s low of $3.398 and then at $3.318. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 62 points at 1.3526 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today. Prices last week hit a 14-month
high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3750. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3400. First resistance for
the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3600 and then at this
week’s high of 1.3658. Next support is seen at 1.3500 and
then at this week’s low of 1.3462. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 17 points at 1.0696
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
yet another contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still
no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1100. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
1.0800 and then at this week’s high of 1.0866. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of 1.0633 and then
at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 21 points at 1.0995
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices last week
hit a nine-month high. The Swissy bulls still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.1200. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0800. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.1046 and then at last week’s high of
1.1090. First support is seen at 1.0973 and then at today’s
low of 1.0933. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 92 points at 1.0291
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 2.5-month low. Bulls have faded but still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, they
need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at this week’s high of 1.0435. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0200.
First resistance is seen at 1.0327 and then today’s high of
1.0369. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0265 and
then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 1 point at 1.0034
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on
more tepid short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0100. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of .9889. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0042 and then
at 1.0085. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0001
and then at .9950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed up 4 points at 1.5662 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices Tuesday
hit a 5.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5900. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at 1.5700 and
then at 1.5750. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.5627 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 24 points at 79.77
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more
short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the dollar index bulls are
having a good week so far this week. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 80.27. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at 78.50. Next resistance
lies at today’s high of 79.93 and then at 80.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 79.53 and then at 79.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 27/32 at 143 19/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a contract low. T-Bond
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 142 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 146 17/32. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 28/32 and
then at 144 even. First support is seen at 143 even and
then at today’s low of 142 21/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 12.0 (32nds) at 131.19.0
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a 4.5-month
low. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
January high of 132.17.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 130.10.5. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131.22.0 and then
at last week’s high of 131.26.5. First support is seen at
today’s low of 131.07.5 and then at 131.04.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today and saw some mild profit taking. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage as the
indexes are not far from their recent highs. U.S. economic
data today failed to move the markets much. There will be
some fresh, significant market news out on Thursday when
the European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting,
including a press conference by ECB chief Mario Draghi. The
ECB is expected to leave its interest rates unchanged, but
Draghi may tip his hand on monetary policy changes at his
press briefing. Also China will issue a fresh batch of
economic data late-week, including inflation and trade
balance reports. The market place will closely scrutinize
the ECB meeting results and the data coming out of China.
In overnight news, German manufacturing orders were
reported up 0.8% in December, which was better than
expected and hints the European Union’s largest economy has
turned the corner toward recovery. Generally, EU economic
data has been more upbeat than not recently. However,
Italian and Spanish bond yields crept higher Wednesday,
which signals fresh investor unease about those two still-
troubled EU countries and their political problems. In
Asia, Japan’s central bank continues on its aggressive path
toward reflating its economy, meaning deflating the yen.
The Japanese yen fell to a fresh 2.5-year low against the
U.S. dollar and a three-year low versus the Euro currency
Wednesday. A Bank of Japan board member reportedly said
Wednesday currency manipulation (a weaker yen) is a
plausible avenue to stimulate domestic growth. The world’s
fourth-largest economy printing huge amounts of its
currency is an underlying bullish factor for risk assets.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 8.50 at 2,741.00
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,675.00. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 2,764.00 and then at the
January high of 2,768.75. First support is seen at 2,725.00
and then at this week’s low of 2,709.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.40 at 1,507.30.
Prices closed nearer the daily high and closed at a fresh
five-year high close today. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,525.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,457.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1,510.80 and then at 1,520.00. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 1,490.50 and then at 1,475.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 15 points at 13,925. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 14,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 13,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000.
First support is seen at today’s low of 13,860 and then at
this week’s low of 13,810. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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