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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 22

Feb 23, 2012

Wednesday Evening, February 22-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.07 at $131.20
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh
contract high today. The key outside markets were bearish
for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were weaker. Bulls have solid upside
momentum on their side. Cash cattle market fundamentals are
viewed as very bullish as cash cattle prices last week hit
a record high. Cattle futures bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $132.50. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $128.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
$131.50 and then at $132.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $130.65 and then at $130.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

May feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $162.30 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Prices Tuesday
hit a contract high. Feeder bulls still have solid upside
momentum and have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The market is still overextended on the upside
and due for at least a downside technical correction very
soon. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above technical resistance at
$165.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $160.00. First resistance is seen at the
contract high of $162.35 and then at $163.00. First support
is seen at this week’s low of $161.75 and then at $161.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed up $0.47 at $90.30 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-week high.
Cash hog market fundamentals have also turned more bullish
recently. Hog market bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a very choppy five-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The sharply higher cattle
and feeder cattle futures prices recently are also positive
for hogs. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $92.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the February low of $87.87. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.95 and then at
$91.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $89.85 and
then at $89.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 9 cents at $6.42 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Trading
remains very choppy. Recent strong export demand has been
bullish for the corn market. Traders are now awaiting
Friday’s USDA ag outlook conference forecasts for the
grains. Corn market bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $6.56. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $6.26. First resistance for March corn
is seen at this week’s high of $6.48 and then at $6.50.
First support is seen at $6.35 and then at today’s low of
$6.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans closed up 3/4 cent at $12.77 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today closed
at a fresh four-month high close. Traders are now awaiting
Friday’s USDA ag outlook conference forecasts for the
grains. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $12.91 3/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $12.23 1/4.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.82 1/4
and then at $12.91 3/4. First support is seen at today’s
low of $12.67 3/4 and then at $12.54. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

May soybean meal closed up $0.20 at $332.90 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Meal bulls still have
the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $323.40. First resistance comes in at
$335.00 and then at this week’s high of $337.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $329.80 and then at
$326.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May bean oil closed up 10 points at 54.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh four-month high close. Bean oil bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of 54.74 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 52.92
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
54.65 cents and then at 54.74 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 54.11 cents and then at this week’s low
of 53.72 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 10 cents at $6.46 3/4
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Traders are now awaiting
Friday’s USDA ag outlook conference forecasts for the
grains. Wheat bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.60 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $6.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $6.52 1/4 and then at $6.65. First support
lies at today’s low of $6.33 1/4 and then at this week’s
low of $6.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed up 9 cents at $6.93 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a
bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $6.60. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.94 1/2 and then at
$7.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.85 and
then at last week’s low of $6.76 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

May oats closed down 5 1/2 cents at $3.12 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today on profit taking. Oats
bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.06.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $3.24. First support lies at today’s low of
$3.11 1/2 and then at $3.10. First resistance is seen at
$3.15 and then at today’s high of $3.17 1/2. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 28 points at 24.75 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh 3.5-month high. The key outside markets were bearish
for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were weaker. Yet, sugar rallied anyway,
which is a bullish clue. Sugar bulls have gained good
upside near-term technical momentum this week as the bulls
now have the near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 25.00 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 23.81 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 24.75 cents and then at 25.00 cents. First
support is seen at 24.50 cents and then at today’s low of
24.29 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May coffee closed down 455 points at 201.50 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key outside markets
were bearish for coffee today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Coffee prices are
in a choppy, five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage, but my bias is that a market low is close at
hand or in place. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 215.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major psychological support at 200.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 205.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 206.75 cents. First support is seen at 200.00 cents
and then at last week’s low of 197.80 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

May cocoa closed up $29 at $2,453 a ton. Prices closed near
the session high today and hit another fresh four-week high
on more short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest.
The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude
oil prices were weaker. Yet, cocoa rallied anyway, which is
a bullish clue. Cocoa bulls the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of $2,499. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,250. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,454
and then at $2,499. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,400 and then at this week’s low of $2,345. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

May cotton closed down 215 points at 90.82 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
seven-week low. Today’s price action produced a bearish
downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range on the
daily chart and the bears gained fresh technical power. The
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for cotton
today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were weaker. Cotton bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 90.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 90.45 cents
and then at 90.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 92.00
cents and then at 92.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May orange juice closed down 120 points at $1.7925 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the
slight near-term technical advantage amid choppy and
volatile trading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.8720.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.7000. First resistance is seen at $1.8225 and then at
today’s high of $1.8350. First support is seen at today’s
low of $1.7835 and then at this week’s low of $1.7650.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed up $4.50 at $264.30 today.
Prices closed near the session high on short covering and
bargain hunting. The lumber bulls have regained the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $255.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the February high of $276.20. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $265.00 and then at $268.00. First
support is seen at $260.00 and then at this week’s low of
$257.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $12.50 an ounce at
$1,771.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh three-month high. Safe-haven buying
due to the tensions in the Middle East boosted gold today.
Price action today saw the market move above what was stiff
overhead technical resistance at the February high, which
gives the bulls still more upside near-term technical
momentum. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of $1,706.70. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,774.20 and then at $1,785.00.
First support is seen at $1,765.90 and then at today’s low
of $1,750.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March silver futures closed down $0.159 an ounce at $34.28
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some profit-taking pressure. The key outside markets were
bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Silver bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$34.52 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of $32.64. First resistance is
seen at $34.52 and then at $35.00. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $33.90 and then at $33.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 55 points 384.20 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
outside markets were bearish for copper today as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker.
Copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of 369.35
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 385.15
cents and then at 387.50 cents. First support is seen at
380.00 cents and then at 376.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.10 a barrel at
$106.15 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh 9.5-month high. Tensions in the Middle East
are rising and that’s bullish for crude. Prices have this
week seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent
sideways trading range at higher price levels. Crude oil
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above psychological
resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below major psychological support at
$100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$106.72 and then at $107.00. First support is seen at
$105.00 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April heating oil closed up 313 points at $3.2661 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 9.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April 2011 high of $3.3422. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1280. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.2680 and then at $3.3000. First
support is seen at $3.2500 and then at today’s low of
$3.2134. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 168 points at
$3.2653 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit another fresh contract high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.3000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $3.1000. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of $3.2655 and then at $3.2800. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.2258 and then at
$3.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

April natural gas closed up 1.7 cents at $2.79 today.
Prices closed near the session high and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, my bias is that a
market low is in place, or close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.942. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$2.438. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$2.862 and then at $2.942. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2.666 and then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 2 points at 1.3245 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today in quieter trading. The bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of
1.2975. First resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s
high of 1.3295 and then at the February high of 1.3325.
Next support is seen at this week’s low of 1.3182 and then
at 1.3115. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 87 points at 1.2463
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh seven-month low. Bears have solid downside
near-term technical momentum. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at this week’s high of 1.2603. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the July 2011 low of 1.2338. First
resistance is seen at 1.2500 and then at today’s high of
1.2545. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2439 and
then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 15 points at 1.0985 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh 11-week high close. Bulls and bears are back on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1100. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.0755. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.1023 and then
at 1.1100. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.0913 and then at 1.0864. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 29 points at 1.0609
today. Prices closed near mid-range today, hit a fresh
three-week low and saw mild profit taking. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still
in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at the contract high of
1.0795. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
1.0450. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0655
and then at 1.0700. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0573 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 32 points at .9999
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on mild profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A three-month-old uptrend line is still in place
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0200. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9925. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0040
and then at this week’s high of 1.0090. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9974 and then at last week’s low of
.9941. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March British pound closed down 113 points at 1.5669
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and bulls
are fading badly. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has
now formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of 1.5924. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at the
February low of 1.5641. First resistance is seen at 1.5700
and then at 1.5750. First support is seen at 1.5641 and
then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 13 points at 79.27
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 80.24. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 78.00. Next resistance lies at 79.50
and then at 80.00. First support is seen at 79.00 and then
at this week’s low of 78.89. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 21/32 at 142 6/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering and some bargain hunting. Tensions in the Middle
East are also bullish for U.S. Treasuries. The bond market
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of 140 21/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 143 27/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 142 14/32 and
then at 143 even. First support is seen at 142 even and
then at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 12.0 (32nds) at 131.00.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of
131.24.5. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at the January low of 129.26.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 131.03.0 and then at 131.16.0.
First support is seen 130.24 and then at today’s low of
130.12.0 and then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today on some profit taking and amid a “risk off”
trading day due to the rising tensions in the Middle East.
Prices have recently hit for-the-move highs. The stock
index bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 12.25 at
2,578.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,625.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,500.00. First resistance is
seen at last week’s and today’s high of 2,600.50 and then
at 2,615.00. First support is seen at 2,570.00 and then at
2,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 4.20 at 1,355.90.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the May 2011 high of 1,372.70. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,296.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1,368.70 and then at 1,372.70.
First support is seen at 1,350.00 and then at 1,334.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 29 points at 12,916 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above major
psychological resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 12,250. First
resistance in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 12,980
and then at 13,000. First support is seen at today’s low of
12,895 and then at 12,850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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