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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 29

Mar 01, 2012

Wednesday Evening, February 29-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $1.52 at $129.80
today. Prices closed near the session high today as traders
focused on the bullish cash cattle market fundamentals and
not on the bearish outside markets. Cattle futures bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage and
regained fresh upside momentum today. Prices are in a 2.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
$131.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $127.95. First
resistance is seen at $130.00 and then at $130.50. First
support is seen at $129.45 and then at $129.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

May feeder cattle closed up $1.75 at $161.87 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Feeder bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and regained
upside momentum today. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $162.35. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$159.00. First resistance is seen at $162.00 and then at
$162.35. First support is seen at $161.00 and then at
today’s low of $160.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

April lean hogs closed up $1.40 at $89.42 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Prices early on
today hit a fresh four-week low. Bulls and bears are back
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the
February high of $90.95. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at today’s low of $87.70. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $89.60 and then
at $90.00. First support is seen at $89.00 and then at
$88.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $6.57 3/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh six-week high. Prices also closed at a bullish
monthly high close on this last trading day of the month.
Recent strong export demand for U.S. corn is bullish for
this market. Corn market bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $6.72 1/2. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $6.36 1/2. First resistance for March corn is
seen at today’s high of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.65. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.53 1/4 and then at
$6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May soybeans closed up 6 3/4 cents at $13.19 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit another fresh 5.5-month high. Prices also closed at
a bullish monthly high close today. Soybeans are also
seeing good U.S. export demand recently. Soybean bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $13.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the January high of
$12.53 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$13.24 1/4 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at
today’s low of $13.08 and then at $13.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $3.00 at $352.30 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today, hit another fresh
5.5-month high and closed at a bullish monthly high close.
Meal bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$360.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $336.30. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $354.20 and then at $357.50.
First support is seen at $350.00 and then at today’s low of
$347.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 24 points at 54.56 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some profit
taking. The key “outside markets” were bearish for bean oil
today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were weaker. Bean oil bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 56.00
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 53.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 54.87 cents and then at 55.00
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 54.31
cents and then at 54.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1/4 cent at $6.68 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
three-week high. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
wheat today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were weaker. The wheat bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $6.96 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $6.74 1/2 and then at $6.80. First support lies at
today’s low of $6.60 1/4 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents at $7.08 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh three-week high. Bulls have gained some upside
momentum this week and are on a level near-term technical
playing field with the bears. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of $7.37
1/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $6.76 1/2. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $7.14 and then at $7.18. First support is
seen at today’s low of $7.01 1/2 and then at $6.95.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May oats closed up 3/4 cent at $3.14 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Oats bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.06. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$3.24. First support lies at today’s low of $3.11 1/2 and
then at this week’s low of $3.08 1/2. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.16 1/4 and then at $3.17 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 30 points at 25.03 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more profit
taking from recent gains. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was higher
and crude oil prices were weaker. Prices Monday hit a four-
month high. Sugar bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 27.19 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 24.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 25.42 cents and then
at 26.67 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
24.62 cents and then at 24.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

May coffee closed down 325 points at 203.00 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for coffee today as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Prices
are still in a choppy, five-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 215.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major psychological support at 200.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 205.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 207.35 cents. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 201.30 cents and then at 200.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

May cocoa closed down $24 at $2,346 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week low early on.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for cocoa today as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
weaker. Trading has been choppy in cocoa. Bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $2,499. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $2,250.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,385 and then
at $2,400. First support is seen at $2,300 and then at
$2,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed down 180 points at 90.44 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for cotton today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker.
Cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 94.57 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 89.01
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 89.88 cents
and then at 89.01 cents. First resistance is seen at 91.00
cents and then at 92.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May orange juice closed up 180 points at $1.8575 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-week
high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage amid choppy trading. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.9250.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the February low of $1.7440. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.8850 and then at $1.9000. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.8325 and then at this week’s
low of $1.8000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March lumber futures closed down $1.90 at $265.80 today.
The lumber bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage but are fading. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $257.70. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $276.20. First
resistance is seen at $267.50 and then at $270.00. First
support is seen at $265.00 and then at $263.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $75.50 an ounce
at $1,712.80 today. Prices closed near the session low
today and hit a fresh five-week low. Prices also closed at
a bearish monthly low close today. Just Tuesday gold hit a
3.5-month high. A stronger U.S. dollar index and lower
crude oil prices helped the gold market bears today. Some
bearish remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke spooked gold and
other commodity markets today. The gold market bulls faded
badly today, and some near-term chart damage was inflicted.
A two-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart was at
least temporarily negated today. If there is good follow-
through selling pressure on Thursday or Friday, more
serious chart damage would be inflicted. The bulls next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$1,792.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below psychological support at $1,700.00.
First resistance is seen at $1,725.00 and then at
$1,740.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,704.50 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

March silver futures closed down $2.557 an ounce at $34.583
today. Prices scored a big and bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart today and closed nearer the session
low today. Heavy profit taking was featured today after
prices hit a fresh 5.5-month high early on. The key
“outside markets” turned bearish for silver during the
trading session, as the U.S. dollar index rallied and crude
oil prices weakened. Silver bulls faded badly today, but no
serious chart damage occurred. Prices are still in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls do now need
to step up and show fresh power soon. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at today’s high of $37.48 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $32.64. First resistance is seen at $35.00
and then at $35.50. Next support is seen at $34.00 and then
at today’s low of $33.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 415 points 387.05 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” turned bearish for copper during the trading
session, as the U.S. dollar index rallied and crude oil
prices weakened. Copper bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at 400.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
369.35 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and
then at 392.50 cents. First support is seen at 385.00 cents
and then at 382.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $0.32 a barrel at
$106.87 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and traded weaker for much of the session. Crude oil bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above psychological
resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below major psychological support at
$100.00. First resistance is seen at $107.50 and then at
$108.00. First support is seen at $106.00 and then at
$105.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

April heating oil closed down 151 points at $3.2050 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April 2011 high of $3.3422. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$3.1793. First resistance lies at $3.2500 and then at
$3.2811. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1605
and then at $3.1280. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 341 points at
$3.2589 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.3500.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.1500. First resistance is
seen at $3.2750 and then at $3.3000. First support is seen
at today’s low of $3.1968 and then at $3.1750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

April natural gas closed up 8.0 cents at $2.599 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. However, my bias is
still that a market low is in place, or close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.942.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $2.438. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2.625 and then at this week’s high of $2.742.
First support is seen at the February low of $2.50 and then
at the contract low of $2.438. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 136 points at 1.3322 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart is still in place. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3500. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3100. First resistance for
the Euro lies at 1.3400 and then at 1.3450. Next support is
seen at 1.3300 and then at 1.3250. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 113 points at 1.2304
today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed
at a fresh nine-month low close and at a bearish monthly
low close today. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at this week’s high of 1.2499. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the May 2011 low of 1.2201. First resistance is
seen at 1.2350 and then at 1.2400. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 1.2256 and then at 1.2201. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 114 points at 1.1055
today. Prices closed near the session low and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as a
seven-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
February high of 1.1200. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.0913. First
resistance is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.1049 and then at
1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 22 points at 1.0708
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a
bearish “outside day” down today. Prices hit a fresh
contract high early on. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at today’s contract high of 1.0833. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0450.
First resistance is seen at 1.0795 and then at 1.0833. Next
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0625 and then at
1.0569. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 67 points at 1.0101
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh 5.5-
month high today. Prices also closed at a monthly high
close today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
A three-month-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0250. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of .9941. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0154 and then at 1.0200. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0042 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

The March British pound closed up 29 points at 1.5915
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today but did
hit a fresh 3.5-month high early on. Prices also closed at
a bullish monthly high close today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5750. First resistance is seen at 1.5950 and
then at today’s high of 1.5992. First support is seen at
1.5850 and then at this week’s low of 1.5798. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 55 points at 78.85
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart
after hitting a fresh 3.5-month low early on. Short
covering was featured. Prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 80.24. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 78.00. Next
resistance lies at 79.00 and then at 79.46. First support
is seen at 78.50 and then at today’s low of 78.12.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 22/32 at 143 4/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and were pressured a bit
by bearish remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke. The bond
market bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of 140 21/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the January high of 145
15/32. First resistance is seen at 143 16/32 and then at
144 even. First support is seen at 143 even and then at
today’s low of 142 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 10.0 (32nds) at 131.11.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the January high of 132.11.0. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 130.12.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.24.5 and then at this week’s high of
131.28.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 131.01.0
and then at 130.23.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today on profit taking. The stock index bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 9.00 at
2,623.00. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
poked to another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,542.75. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,645.25 and then at 2,660.00. First support is
seen at 2,607.80 and then at this week’s low of 2,578.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 7.00 at 1,364.40.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nearly
four-year high early on. Prices also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there is
strong follow-through selling pressure on Thursday, then a
bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed on the daily
bar chart. That would be one early clue that a near-term
market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,400.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,334.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,377.00 and then at 1,385.00. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 1,353.00 and then at 1,334.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 60 points at 12,937 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh four-year high early on. Prices also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there is
strong follow-through selling pressure on Thursday, then a
bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed on the daily
bar chart. That would be one early clue that a near-term
market top is in place. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 13,000. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 12,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high
of 13,035 and then at 13,100. First support is seen at
12,900 and then at this week’s low of 12,865. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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