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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 9

Feb 10, 2012

Thursday Evening, February 9-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

 

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.60 at
$128.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and
saw some profit taking. Cattle futures bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Cash cattle
market fundamentals remains bullish. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $129.70.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $125.50. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $128.90 and then at the January high of $129.45 and
then at $129.70. First support is seen at today’s low of
$127.60 and then at this week’s low of $127.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.15 at $155.12 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Feeder bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at the contract
high of $155.95. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at $153.00. First resistance is seen at
$155.95 and then at $156.50. First support is seen at
$154.65 and then at $154.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

April lean hogs closed up $0.75 at $89.70 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Hog bulls regained the slight
near-term technical advantage today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for hogs today, as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
higher. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at last week’s high of $90.75. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at $87.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $90.20 and then at $90.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of $89.40 and then at
$89.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 6 1/2 cents at
$6.36 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Today’s USDA
report was deemed mostly neutral for corn. Corn bulls and
bears are still on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, the bulls have to be disappointed with
today’s weak close. The seasonal “February Break” price
weakness in the grains is now on traders’ minds. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at today’s
high of $6.52. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.25. First resistance for March corn
is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.45. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $6.32 and then at $6.27 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $12.28 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh 3.5-month high early on. Today’s USDA world
supply and demand report was deemed mostly neutral. Soybean
bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. However, the seasonal “February Break” price
weakness in the grains is now on traders’ minds. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at today’s high of $12.47 1/2 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below technical support
at last week’s low of $11.84 1/4. First resistance is seen
at $12.31 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at
today’s low of $12.22 3/4 and then at $12.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $320.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage in
meal, but they are fading and need to show fresh power
soon. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $331.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$312.70. First resistance comes in at $322.50 and then at
$325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $318.00
and then at $315.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March bean oil closed down 3 points at 52.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
five-week high early on. Bean oil bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of 53.79 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 52.77 cents and then at today’s high
of 53.08 cents. First support is seen at 52.38 cents and
then at 52.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 15 1/4 cents at $6.45
1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh two-week low. Today’s USDA world supply and
demand report was bearish for wheat. Wheat bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, the seasonal “February Break” price weakness in
the grains is now on traders’ minds. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $6.83 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.35
1/4. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.58
1/4. First support lies at today’s low of $6.41 3/4 and
then at $6.35 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 18 cents at $6.92 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded
today. A bearish double-top reversal pattern could be in
place on the daily bar chart. The seasonal “February Break”
price weakness in the grains is also now on traders’ minds.
Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $7.32. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is
seen at $7.00 and then at today’s high of $7.09 1/2. First
support is seen at $6.90 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

March oats closed down 10 3/4 cents at $3.17 1/4 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and the bulls
have quickly faded. Oats bulls and bears are now back on a
level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below major psychological support at $3.00. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $3.34. First support lies at today’s low of $3.15 1/2
and then at $3.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at $3.20
and then at $3.22 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 5 points at 24.48 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh two-week high early on. Sugar bears still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
25.21 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of 23.41 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 24.89 cents and then at 25.00 cents.
First support is seen at 24.25 cents and then at 24.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March coffee closed down 485 points at 215.20 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. Coffee bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained some
more downside momentum today. Prices are in a choppy, five-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 225.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 210.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 217.50 cents and then at
220.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
214.75 cents and then at this week’s low of 213.05 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

March cocoa closed down $43 at $2,220 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and did hit a fresh four-week low.
Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage
and gained some fresh downside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,350. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,265 and then at $2,300. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,186 and then at $2,175. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

March cotton closed down 324 points at 90.38 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a
fresh six-week low. A bearish USDA report today helped to
sink the cotton market. Cotton bears have the near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh downside power today.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 95.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 87.50 cents. First support is seen at 90.00
cents and then at 89.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
91.00 cents and then at 92.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

March orange juice closed down 150 points at $1.8920 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a fresh
three-week low close. Bulls have faded badly this week as
it looks like a market top is in place. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$2.0000. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.7800. First resistance is seen at $1.9000 and
then at today’s high of $1.9365. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $1.8625 and then at $1.8500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

March lumber futures closed up $5.90 at $271.50 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The lumber bulls
have some upside technical momentum and have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $255.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $280.00. First resistance is seen at $272.50 and then at
this week’s high of $276.20. First support is seen at
$270.00 and then at today’s low of $268.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $7.40 an ounce at
$1,738.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as
trading has turned choppy this week. The key outside
markets were bullish for gold today--the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Gold bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-
old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
$1,769.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below psychological support at $1,700.00.
First resistance is seen at $1,750.00 and then at today’s
high of $1,755.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,728.30 and then at $1,720.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

March silver futures closed up $0.251 an ounce at $33.955
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key outside
markets were bullish for silver today--the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Silver
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $35.68 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $31.525. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $34.52 and then at $35.00. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $33.675 and then at $33.155.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 705 points 398.00 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh five-
month high today. The key outside markets were bullish for
copper today--the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil and U.S. stock index prices were firmer. Copper bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at 400.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 375.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 400.00 cents and then at 402.50
cents. First support is seen at 395.00 cents and then at
390.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $1.06 a barrel at
$99.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Crude oil bull have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have regained some upside momentum this week.
Prices are still in a gentle four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart, but now just barely. A higher close on
Friday would negate the downtrend line. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above psychological technical resistance
at $100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the February low of
$95.44. First resistance is seen at $100.00 and then at
$101.00. First support is seen at $99.00 and then at
$98.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March heating oil closed up 223 points at $3.2118 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh eight-month high close. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have gained more power
this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
June 2011 high of $3.2244. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $3.0800. First resistance lies at
$3.2224 and then at $3.2500. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.1787 and then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 365 points at
$3.0121 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit another fresh nine-month high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $2.8500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.0162 and then at $3.0500. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.9760 and then at $2.9500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March natural gas closed up 0.19 cents at $2.467 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.844. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of
$2.289. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.618 and then at $2.70. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2.39 and then at last week’s low of $2.34.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 35 points at 1.3288 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and hit a fresh two-month high
today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but the bulls have gained some upside
near-term momentum this week. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3400. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3000. First resistance for
the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3325 and then at 1.3400.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3216 and then at
1.3150 and then at 1.3100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 110 points at 1.2878
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bulls are fading fast and the bears
today regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of
1.3077. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
1.2779. First resistance is seen at 1.2900 and then at
1.2950. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2868 and
then at 1.2850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 13 points at 1.0972 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
nine-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but the bulls have gained some upside
momentum recently. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.1100. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0700. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1008
and then at 1.1050. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0929 and then at 1.0842. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 6 points at 1.0740
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Prices
Wednesday hit a contract high. Bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at 1.1000. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0450. First resistance is seen at
the contract high of 1.0795 and then at 1.0850. Next
support is seen at 1.0653 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 8 points at 1.0039
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
3.5-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. A 10-week-old uptrend line is in place on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
the October high of 1.0075. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at .9950. First resistance is seen
at 1.0075 and then at 1.0100. First support is seen at this
week’s low of .9994 and then at .9957. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

The March British pound closed up 2 points at 1.5814 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The bulls
still have some upside momentum and have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 1.6120. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5650. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5882 and then at this week’s high
of 1.5924. First support is seen at 1.5784 and then at this
week’s low of 1.5725. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 5 points at 78.68
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh
two-month low today. Bulls have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage but have faded badly recently and
need to show fresh power soon to avoid serious chart
damage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 78.00.
Next resistance lies at 79.00 and then at this week’s high
of 79.64. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.43 and
then at 78.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 22/32 at 141 17/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
two-week low. The bond market bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to
show fresh power soon to avoid significant chart damage.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of 140 21/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 143 17/32.
First resistance is seen at 142 even and then at today’s
high of 142 13/32. First support is seen at 141 even and
then at 140 21/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 (32nds) at 130.25.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh two-week low. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s all-
time high of 132.11.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 130.24.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.06.5 and then at the December high of
131.16.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 130.18.0
and then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mostly firmer again today and hit fresh for-the-move highs.
Same story: The stock index bulls have good upside near-
term technical momentum on their side. It’s those quiet,
unassuming price trends like those in the stock indexes at
present that are most likely to continue.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 16.75 at 2,561.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit
yet another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,600.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,430.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,565.00 and then at 2,575.00. First support is seen at
2,550.00 and then at today’s low of 2,535.25 and then at
2,525.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.20 at 1,348.20.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh 6.5-
month high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
July high of 1,354.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,296.00. First resistance is seen at 1,354.50
and then at 1,365.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1,340.80 and then at 1,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 1 point at 12,842 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nearly four-
year high early on. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 13,000. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the January low of 12,250. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,880 and then at 12,900. First
support is seen at 12,800 and then at this week’s low of
12,738. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

 

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