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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Jan. 16

Jan 17, 2013

Wednesday Evening, January 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.72 at
$132.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit a fresh nine-week low. Weakening U.S. beef demand and
lower cash cattle trade this week hit the futures hard
today. The cattle bears now have the near-term technical
advantage. A steep three-week-old downtrend is now in place
on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $135.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $131.62. First resistance is seen at
$133.00 and then at $133.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $132.60 and then at $132.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

March feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $148.22 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a
fresh six-week low. The feeder bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. However, feeders are now well
overdone on the downside. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$151.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the November low of $146.85. First resistance is
seen at $149.00 and then at $149.50. First support is seen
at $148.00 and then at 147.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

April lean hogs closed down $0.17 at $87.42 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and were pressured by
the big downdraft in cattle futures markets. The hog bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a choppy two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$89.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$85.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$87.90 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at last
week’s low of $86.90 and then at $86.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded down 1 3/4 cents
at $7.28 3/4 today in late trading. Prices were near mid-
range and hit another fresh four-week high early on today.
Mild profit taking was featured today. Bulls have gained
good upside near-term technical momentum recently. There
are early technical clues that a near-term market low is in
place. Bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, the bulls have more work
to do in the near-term to suggest a price uptrend can be
sustained. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $7.00. First resistance for March corn is seen
at today’s high of $7.35 and then at $7.40. First support
is seen at today’s low of $7.24 1/2 and then at $7.20.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March soybeans were up 20 1/2 cents at $14.34 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high and
poised to close at a fresh three-week high close. Dry
weather in Argentina’s soybean regions has been supportive
for the soybean market recently. Bulls have gained some
upside technical momentum to begin to suggest a market low
is in place. A bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may
now be forming on the daily bar chart. But bulls have more
heavy lifting to do in the near term to better suggest such
and to also suggest prices can begin a fresh uptrend.
Soybean bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.50 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $13.51 1/2. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of $14.36 1/4 and then at
$14.43. First support is seen at today’s low of $14.12 1/4
and then at $14.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March soybean meal was up $5.20 at $417.10 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering. Meal bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the last week’s low
of $392.40. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$418.70 and then at $420.00. First support is seen at
$415.00 and then at today’s low of $410.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

March bean oil was up 39 points at 51.26 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and hit
a fresh four-week high today on more short covering and
bargain hunting. Bean oil bulls and bears are now back on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 51.85 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
49.12 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
51.50 cents and then at 51.85 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 50.68 cents and then at 50.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 1 3/4 cents at $7.84 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit
another fresh three-week high today. Mild short covering
and bargain hunting were featured. There are early
technical clues to suggest a near-term market low is in
place. Wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $8.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $7.36 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $7.91 and then at $8.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $7.77 and then at $7.66 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat was up 4 1/2 cents at $8.42 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
hit another fresh three-week high today. There are early
technical clues to suggest a near-term market low is in
place. HRW bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $8.75. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.85 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.48 and then
at $8.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.34 1/4
and then at $8.23. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March oats were down 1/2 cent at $3.56 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the
bulls have gained good upside momentum to suggest a near-
term market low is in place. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $3.28 1/2.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.68.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.53 1/4 and then at
$3.50. First resistance is seen this week’s high of $3.60
3/4 and then at $3.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 10 points at 18.52 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
four-week low. Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 19.75 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
18.31 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
18.74 cents and then at 18.90 cents. First support is seen
at 18.31 cents and then at 18.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

March coffee closed up 10 points at 152.60 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The coffee bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a
bullish “rounding-bottom” reversal pattern may be forming
on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout objective
for the bulls is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 157.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of 141.24 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 154.75
cents and then at this week’s high of 156.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 150.80 cents and then at
150.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March cocoa closed down $22 at $2,248 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The cocoa bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,325. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,115.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,268 and then
at $2,285. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$2,230 and then at the January low of $2,206 and then at
$2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed up 92 points at 77.13 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh five-month
high today. The cotton bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
August high of 78.02 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at the January
low of 73.72 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.02 cents
and then at 78.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 76.10 cents and then at 75.55 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

March orange juice closed up 185 points at $1.1215 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering was
featured. FCOJ bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.1800. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the October low of $1.0675.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1390 and then
at this week’s high of $1.1520. First support is seen at
the January low of $1.0910 and then at $1.0800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

March lumber futures closed down $1.50 at $375.40 today.
More profit taking was featured and no chart damage has
occurred. The lumber bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
$371.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $397.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $380.90 and then at
$385.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $375.00
and then at $372.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $2.70 an ounce
at $1,681.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The gold bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart—but now just barely.
The bulls have recently gained some upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest a near-term market low is in
place. However, the bulls have more work to do in the near
term to suggest a near-term price uptrend can be sustained.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $1,695.40. Bears' next near-term downside
breakout price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $1,684.90 and then at $1,695.40. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,673.00 and then at
Tuesday’s low of $1,666.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

March silver futures closed down $0.024 an ounce at $31.505
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The silver bulls have gained upside
technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market low
is in place. Silver bulls need to show more power soon to
suggest a near-term price uptrend can be sustained. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $32.50 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below major psychological support at $30.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $31.615 and
then at $32.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$31.09 and then at $30.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 245 points at 361.30 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another two-week low on more profit taking. Copper bulls
are fading and are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart—but now just barely. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 357.50
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 364.55
cents and then at 367.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 359.95 cents and then at 357.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $0.88 a barrel at
$94.16 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The crude bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $94.70 and then at $95.00. First support is seen at
$93.00 and then at last week’s low of $92.42. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

February heating oil closed down 57 points at $3.0056
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. A choppy four-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart—but now
just barely. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $3.1137. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the January low of
$2.9809. First resistance lies at $3.0400 and then at
$3.0500. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.9858
and then at the January low of $2.9809. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 173 points at
$2.7239 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and did hit another fresh three-week low early on. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2.8182. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at $2.6500. First
resistance is seen at $2.7400 and then at $2.7500. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2.6915 and then at
$2.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

February natural gas closed down 1.5 cents at $3.439 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Nat gas bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage but the
bulls have gained some momentum. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.532. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.20. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $3.464 and then at $3.487.
First support is seen at today’s low of $3.364 and then at
this week’s low of $3.328. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 14 points at 1.3290 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and saw mild profit taking after prices
Monday hit an 11-month high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.3200. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3332 and
then at 1.3373. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3262 and then at 1.3200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 34 points at 1.1300 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
There are still no early clues of a market bottom being
close at hand. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s
high of 1.1522. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1396 and then
at 1.1450. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1259
and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 1 point at 1.0736 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The Swissy
bulls have faded badly recently. The bulls still have the
slight near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh
power soon to keep it. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0900. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 1.0678. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0775 and then at
1.0800. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0721
and then at 1.0678. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 15 points at 1.0523
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0750. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the January low of
1.0340. First resistance is seen at the contract high of
1.0545 and then at 1.0600. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.0471 and then at 1.0443. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 18 points at 1.0127
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the December
high of 1.0158. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of 1.0062. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.0158 and then at the January
high of 1.0175. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0110 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March British pound closed down 59 points at 1.5994
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh seven-week low close. Bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading. A bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart and
price action today could be the beginning of a bearish
downside breakout from that pattern. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.6166.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the January low of
1.5945. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6076
and then at 1.6100. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5970 and then at 1.5945. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 7 points at 79.90
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 80.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the December low of 79.01.
Next resistance lies at 80.00 and then at 80.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of 79.66 and then at 79.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 9/32 at 146 8/32 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today, hit a fresh three-week high
and saw more short covering. T-Bond bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls are
gaining some upside momentum. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 143
17/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 146
23/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 146
17/32 and then at 146 23/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 145 25/32 and then at 145 17/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 3.0 (32nds) at 132.11.5 today.
Prices closed near mid-range, hit a fresh three-week high
and saw more short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are
gaining some fresh upside momentum. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.02.5. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the December low of 131.25.5.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.15.0 and
then at 132.20.0. First support is seen at 132.08.0 and
then at today’s low of 132.05.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The indexes showed muted reaction to a
heavy slate of U.S. economic data released Wednesday. In
overnight news, European and Asian stocks were weaker and
the Euro currency was firmer. U.S. corporate earnings
reports are presently in the world spotlight.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 13.25 at 2,727.50
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 2,580.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,737.50 and then at
this week’s high of 2,750.25. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 2,705.25 and then at last week’s low of
2,698.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.30 at 1,465.50.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,500.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the January low of 1,439.30. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1,471.30 and then at 1,485.00.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1,457.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,446.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 26 points at 13,437. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw mild profit taking.
Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
13,597. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 13,000.
First resistance in the Dow lies at this week’s high of
13,476 and then at 13,500. First support is seen at this
week’s low 13,400 and then at 13,370. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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