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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Jan. 24

Jan 25, 2013

Thursday Evening, January 24--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office today. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)


The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the rally off November’s low. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning
neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2708.90 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off
December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November
decline crossing at 2804.15 is the next upside target. First resistance
is Wednesday’s high crossing at 2764.00. Second resistance is the 87%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 2804.15.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2708.90. Second
support is the January 2nd gap crossing at 2665.00.

The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends this
year ’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1526.50 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1455.71 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Thursday’s high crossing at 1497.50. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing at 1526.50. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1475.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1455.71.

The Dow close higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November’s
low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If the Dow extends the rally off November’s low, weekly resistance
crossing at 14,021 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 13,433 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
13,879. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 14,021.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,608. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,433.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed down 9/32’s at 145-22.

March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 146-17 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the
decline off November’s high, September’s low crossing at 143-08 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
146-17. Second resistance is the January 2nd gap crossing at 146-23.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 144-28. Second support is
reaction low crossing at 144-11.

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Friday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, the 75%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 97.80 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 93.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 96.98 Second resistance is
the 75% retracement level of the September-November crossing at 97.80.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.11. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.93.

March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off
last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term.
If March extends the rally off December’s low, October’s high crossing
at
315.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 302.85 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 309.37. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 315.01. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 297.95. Second support is December’s low crossing at 290.13.

March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday and above September’s high
crossing at 287 53 it extends the rally off December’s low. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, last March’s
high crossing at 295.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 278.93 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
288.82. Second resistance is today’s high crossing at 288.82. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.93. Second support
is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 271.17.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some
of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 3.379 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level
crossing at 3.669 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 3.551.
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 3.669. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.379. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 3.331.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week’s low, the
reaction high crossing at 80.79 is the next upside target. If March
renews this month’s decline, December’s low crossing at 79.01 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at
80.79. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.05. First
support is last Monday’s low crossing at 79.40. Second support is
December’s low crossing at 79.01.

The March Euro closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range
of the past two weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March renews this month’s rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 134.88 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.42 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 134.13. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.88. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 132.42. Second support is this month’s
low crossing at 130.46.

The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this
month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this
month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at
1.5723 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1.6045 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1.5972. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.6045. First support is today’s low crossing at 1.5752. Second support
is the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 1.5723.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as
it extends the rally off Monday’s low. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing
at .10842 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
renews this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the July-
December rally crossing at .10571 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10842. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10986. First support is the
reaction low crossing at .10657. Second support is the 50% retracement
level of the July-December rally crossing at .10571.

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this
week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, November’s low
crossing at 99.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 100.93 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 100.88. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
100.93. First support is today’s low crossing at 99.52. Second support
is November’s low crossing at 99.19.

The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Thursday renewing the
decline off September’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at .11363 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If March extends the decline off September’s
high, monthly support crossing at .11050 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11363. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at .11522. First support is
today’s low crossing at .11082. Second support is monthly support
crossing at .11050.

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1673.80 confirming that a short-term top has been
posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today’s decline,
this month’s low crossing at 1627.90 is the next downside target. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 1697.20 are needed to confirm that a
trend change has taken place. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1697.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
1726.70. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-October
rally crossing at 1639.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level
of the May-October rally crossing at 1604.60.

March silver closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close
set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, the reaction high
crossing at 32.600 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 30.925 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at
32.485. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.600. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.925. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 29.240.

March copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this
week’s rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at
366.48. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this week’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 375.90
is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off this month’s
high, the reaction low crossing at 358.15 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 371.80. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 375.90. First support is
last Wednesday’s low crossing at 359.95. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 358.15.

GRAINS

March Corn closed up 3 1/2-cents at 7.24 1/4.

March corn closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of
Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the
reaction high crossing at 7.35 would confirm a trend change while
opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the
August-January decline crossing at 7.41 3/4. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.35.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-January
decline crossing at 7.41 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.06 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
6.86 1/4.

March wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 7.68 1/2.

March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have
turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.66 3/4 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally
off this month’s low, the 38% retracement level of the November-January
decline crossing at 8.10 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance
is Tuesday’s high crossing at 7.99 3/4. Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.10 1/2.
First support is this month’s low crossing at 7.36 1/4. Second support
is the 75% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 8.21 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.21 confirming that a short-term top has
been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends
this week’s decline, the gap crossing at 8.16 is the next downside
target. Closes above Wednesday’s high crossing at 8.38 1/2 would confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 8.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of
the November-January decline crossing at 8.53. First support is today’s
low crossing at 8.29 1/2. Second support is this month’s low crossing at
7.89 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 5-cents at 8.55 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.56 1/4 confirming that a short-term low has
been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, this month’s low
crossing at 8.30 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally
off this month’s low, the reaction high crossing at 9.11 1/2 is the next
upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 8.82
1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.11 1/2. First
support is today’s low crossing at 8.52 1/4. Second support is this
month’s low crossing at 8.30.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed down 1 3/4-cents at 14.35 1/4.

March soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the
rally off this month’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s rally, December’s high crossing at 15.01 1/4
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.08 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 14.60 3/4. Second
resistance is December’s high crossing at 15.01 1/4. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.08 1/2. Second support is this
month’s low crossing at 13.51 1/2.

March soybean meal closed down $1.80 at $414.70.

March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday extending the trading range
of the past seven days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible. If March extends the rally off this month’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 435.80 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 413.90 would temper the
near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off September’s
high, the 62% retracement level of the 2012 rally crossing at 379.10 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 435.80. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 457.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 413.90. Second
support is this month’s low crossing at 392.40.

March soybean oil closed up 8-pts. at 52.11.

March soybean closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the rally off December’s low, the 50% retracement level
of the September-November decline crossing at 53.13 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.43 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 52.67. Second resistance is the 50%
retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 53.13.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.13. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.43.

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed up $1.67 at $89.67.

April hogs gapped above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.82 on
Thursday confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
April extends today’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 90.90 is the
next upside target. Closes below Wednesday’s low crossing at 87.10 would
confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 90.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 91.82. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 87.10. Second
resistance is the reaction low crossing at 86.90.

April cattle closed down $0.10 at 130.35.

April cattle were lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If April extends this month’s decline, last June’s low crossing at
127.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 134.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
132.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
134.49. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 129.45. Second
support is last June’s low crossing at 127.55.

March feeder cattle closed up $0.80 at $147.95.

March Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it
extended the short covering rally off last Friday’s low. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 151.81 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If March renews this month’s decline, weekly
support low crossing at 141.30 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148.87. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.81. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 144.65. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 141.30.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee close lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.97 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the
reaction low crossing at 14.12 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.19 would temper the bearish
outlook.

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off
September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally
crossing at 21.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 22.52 would confirm that a low has been
posted.

March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or
is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.86 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this
year’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally
crossing at 17.38 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off
November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 62%
retracement level of the 2012-decline crossing at 86.50 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.69
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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