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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--January 12

Jan 13, 2012

Thursday Evening, January 12-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.02 at
$121.30 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. While
the key outside markets were bullish for cattle today—
higher crude oil and lower U.S. dollar index—the huge
losses in grains spilled over into some selling pressure in
the cattle market. Cattle market bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $123.00. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $118.50. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $122.00 and then at $122.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $120.97 and then at
$120.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.92 at $151.80 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
contract high. Feeder bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and there are still no early technical
clues that a market top is close at hand. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above technical resistance at $154.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $149.30. First resistance is seen at the
contract high of $152.30 and then at $152.50. First support
is seen at $151.00 and then at $150.62. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.5

February lean hogs closed up $1.00 at $83.90 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and saw short covering in a
bear market. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for the hog market today, as crude oil prices were
firmer and the U.S. dollar index was lower. Hog bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$85.35. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of $82.62. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $84.35 and then at $84.60. First
support is seen at today’s low of $83.25 and then at this
week’s low of $82.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed locked down the 40-
cent daily trading limit at $6.11 1/2 today following a
shockingly bearish USDA report that showed bigger U.S. corn
supplies projected by USDA. Today’s bearish fundamental
news from USDA could well be a near-term “game-changer” for
corn prices. In other words, corn prices could drift
sideways to lower into the early spring planting season in
the U.S. If corn prices can make a good recover on Friday
or next Monday, that would suggest traders overdid it on
the downside today. As goes corn, so will likely go
soybeans and wheat futures in the coming weeks. Near-term
chart damage was inflicted in corn today. A three-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart was soundly negated. Corn
bears have regained the near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.40. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$6.00. First resistance for March corn is seen at $6.20 and
then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.05 and then at
$6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March soybeans closed down 18 1/2 cents at $11.84 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range after hitting a
fresh three-week low early on. A bearish USDA report that
showed bigger U.S. soybean supplies than expected pressured
beans today. Some near-term chart damage was inflicted in
soybeans today, but if prices can hold above today’s low of
$11.50, the chart damage can be limited. Soybean bears did
regain the near-term technical advantage today. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of $12.18 3/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below technical support
at today’s low of $11.50. First resistance is seen at
$12.00 and then at today’s high of $12.13 1/2. First
support is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

March soybean meal closed down $6.30 at $306.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-
week low. Bears now have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart was negated today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $324.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
today’s low of $296.40. First resistance comes in at
$310.00 and then at $312.50. First support is seen at
$305.00 and then at $302.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March bean oil closed down 51 points at 51.38 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and were pressured by
the bearish USDA report. Bean oil bears have regained the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 52.55 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at today’s low of
50.28 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.50 cents and
then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents
and then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 36 cents at $6.05
today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh
three-week low and scored a big and bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. The wheat market was also hit
by bearish news via higher than expected U.S. wheat
seedings forecast. More near-term chart damage was
inflicted in wheat today. Wheat will remain a follower of
corn and beans for at least the near term. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
today’s high of $6.48 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $5.77 1/4. First resistance is seen at
$6.15 and then at $6.25. First support lies at $6.00 and
then at today’s low of $5.92. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 28 3/4 cents at $6.73
today. Prices closed near the session high after gapping
sharply lower on the daily chart and hitting a fresh three-
week low. Chart damage was inflicted today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $7.00. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50.
First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at $6.91 1/4.
First support is seen at today’s low of $6.59 and then at
$6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March oats closed down 14 1/2 cents at $2.84 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low. The bearish overall USDA report sunk the oats
market, too, today. Oats bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2.75. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
psychological resistance at $3.00. First support lies at
today’s contract low of $2.78 1/2 and then at $2.75 First
resistance is seen at $2.86 and then at $2.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 43 points at 23.26 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Sugar
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices have been trading choppy and sideways at lower
levels for two months. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 24.65 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 22.62 cents. First resistance is seen at
23.50 cents and then at today’s high of 23.85 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 23.17 cents and then at
23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March coffee closed down 90 points at 234.00 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh
six-week high early on. Prices saw a mild corrective
pullback today after recent strong gains. Coffee bulls
still have some upside momentum but the coffee bears still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of 243.30 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 216.60 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 235.20 cents and then at
today’s high of 238.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 231.85 cents and then at 230.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March cocoa closed down $20 at $2,330 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and saw a corrective pullback from
recent big gains. Cocoa bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have gained
some upside near-term technical momentum recently. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,500. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,200. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $2,388 and then at $2,400. First support is seen at
$2,300 and then at $2,274. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March cotton closed down 118 points at 95.69 cents today.
Prices closed poked to another fresh seven-week high early
on and then reversed course to close near mid-range and
score a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Cotton was pressured by the big losses in the grains today.
Cotton bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above major
psychological resistance at 100.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 90.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 94.13 cents
and then at this week’s low of 93.22 cents. First
resistance is seen at 96.50 cents and then at today’s high
of 97.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March orange juice closed down the 1,000 point limit at
$1.7810 today. Price action in FCOJ this week has been the
most volatile of any market in years! Traders are trying to
figure out of the U.S. potential ban on Brazilian orange
juice imports will be bearish or bullish. Right now, it
appears the bearish camp is winning. A bullish USDA orange
crop report today was overlooked by the Brazilian fungicide
uncertainty. This is still a very fluid situation. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices major psychological resistance
at $2.0000. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $1.7000. First resistance is seen at
$1.8000 and then at $1.8170. First support is seen at
$1.7500 and then at $1.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March lumber futures closed down $7.10 at $236.30 today.
Prices closed at a fresh contract low close today. The
lumber bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $225.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $250.00. First
resistance is seen at $240.00 and then at $242.50. First
support is seen at $235.00 and then at $232.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $8.70 an ounce
at $1,648.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and did hit another fresh four-week high early on.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold today, as
the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
firmer. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum
this week. A two-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective
is to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,662.90 and
then at $1,670.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,640.90 and then at $1,630.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

March silver futures closed up $0.235 an ounce at $30.125
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh four-
week high today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude
oil prices were firmer. Bulls this week have gained fresh
upside technical momentum. A two-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $31.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major technical support at $28.12. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $30.675 and then at $31.00. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $29.87 and then at $29.545.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,015 points 364.75 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit a fresh five-week high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Copper bulls have
the near-term technical advantage and gained more upside
momentum today. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 376.80 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 337.80 cents. First resistance is seen at the
December high of 367.40 cents and then at 370.00 cents.
First support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at 358.25
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $1.83 a barrel
at $99.03 today in a late sell off. Reports late Thursday
said the EU debate on imposing an oil embargo on Iran
likely won’t begin for six months. Prices scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Crude oil
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the going does get tough for the bulls once prices
move above the key $100.00 level. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$105.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $98.00. First
resistance is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.00. First
support is seen at $98.00 and then at $97.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

February heating oil closed down 164 points at $3.0482
today. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high early on today
and then sold off to close near the session low and score
another bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of $3.1803. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.9500. First resistance lies at $3.0750 and
then at $3.1000. First support is seen at $3.0250 and then
at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 388 points at
$2.7245 today. Prices closed near the session low today
after hitting a fresh four-month high early on. Prices
scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of $2.8341.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.6500. First resistance is
seen at $2.7500 and then at $2.7750. First support is seen
at $2.7000 and then at $2.6800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

February natural gas closed down 7.1 cents at $2.703 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit yet another
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues of a market
low being close at hand. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.045. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.60.
First resistance is seen at $2.80 and then at $2.85. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of $2.663 and then
at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 129 points at 1.2829 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on short covering in a bear market
after hitting a 16-month low Wednesday. Bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There
are no early clues to suggest a market low is close at
hand. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 1.3000. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2500. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.2848 and then at 1.2900. Next support is seen at
1.2750 and then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The March Japanese yen closed up 17 points at 1.3037 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the November high of 1.3101. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2833. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.3053 and then at last week’s high of
1.3070. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2991
and then at last week’s low of 1.2943. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 128 points at 1.0609 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the January high of 1.0768. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0635 and then
at 1.0700. First support is seen at 1.0550 and then at
1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 31 points at 1.0258
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the October high of 1.0569. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at .9957. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0305 and then at
the January high of 1.0350. Next support is seen at 1.0200
and then at 1.0161. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 7 points at .9799
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. A
three-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the December
high of .9923. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of .9573. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of .9847 and then at .9875. First
support is seen at today’s low of .9777 and then at .9748.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March British pound closed up 23 points at 1.5329
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit a fresh three-month low early on. Short covering in a
bear market was featured today. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
1.5663. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the October low of
1.5267. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5359
and then at 1.5400. First support is seen at the October
low of 1.5267 and then at 1.5200. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 57 points at 81.04
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
clues of a market top being close at hand. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 82.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 79.55. Next
resistance lies at 81.50 and then at this week’s high of
81.85 and then at 82.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of 80.95 and then at 80.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 9/32 at 143 23/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The bond market bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of 141 10/32 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 145 8/32. First resistance is seen at today’s
high if 144 7/32 and then at 144 24/32. First support is
seen at today’s low of 143 13/32 and then at 143 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 6.0 (32nds) at 131.00.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
some profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the December high of 131.14.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 130.03.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.10.0 and then at 131.14.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 130.29.0 and then at
130.22.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes were
firmer in late trading today. The stock index bulls still
have upside technical momentum on their side. The
unassuming price uptrends that are in place in the indexes
suggest more of the same can continue for at least the near
term.

In late trading, the Nasdaq stock futures index was up
12.00 at 2,379.00 today. Prices were nearer the session
high and hit a fresh two-month high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the October high of 2,408.75. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,300.00. First
resistance is seen at 2,400.00 and then at 2,408.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,355.75 and then at
2,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

In late trading, the S&P 500 futures index was up 2.50 at
1,290.70. Prices hit a fresh five-month high today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the July high of 1,354.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,225.00. First
resistance is seen at 1,300.00 and then at 1,315.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,281.00 and then at this
week’s low of 1,267.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

In late trading, the Dow futures was up 12 points at 12,400
today. Prices were near the session high and poised to
close at a fresh five-month high close. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 12,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 11,665. First
resistance in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 12,450
and then at 12,500. First support is seen at today’s low of
12,325 and then at this week’s low of 12,275. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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