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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--January 3

Jan 04, 2012

Tuesday Evening, January 3-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.10 at
$121.55 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
The key “outside markets” were in a fully bullish posture
for the cattle market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
solidly lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were sharply higher. Yet the cattle market could not muster
much upside. That’s a bearish near-term technical clue and
follow’s last Friday’s bearish weekly low close. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $124.35. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $120.25. First resistance is
seen at $122.00 and then at $122.50. First support is seen
at last week’s low of $121.40 and then at $121.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.62 at $149.42 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Feeder bulls
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above technical resistance at the November
high of $150.87. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at $146.50. First resistance is seen at
$150.00 and then at last week’s high of $150.70. First
support is seen at $149.00 and then at last week’s low of
$148.77. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs up $1.22 at $85.52 today. Prices closed
near the session high today on short covering and bargain
hunting. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for the hog market today, as the U.S. dollar index
was lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
sharply higher. Hog bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at $87.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $82.62.
First resistance is seen at $86.00 and then at last week’s
high of $86.50. First support is seen at $85.00 and then at
today’s low of $84.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 12 cents at $6.58
1/2 today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit
a fresh seven-week high and closed near mid-range today.
Recent hot and dry weather in South American corn regions,
and more of the same in the forecast is bullish for corn.
The key “outside markets” were also bullish for the corn
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher.
The corn bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside momentum today. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of $6.76 1/4. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $6.25. First
resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of $6.64
1/4 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at today’s low
of $6.53 and then at $6.48 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

March soybeans closed up 19 3/4 cents at $12.27 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
but did hit a fresh nine-week high early on. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for the soybean
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher.
Dry and hot weather in South American soybean regions is
also bullish for soybean futures. Soybean bulls have gained
the near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $12.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below technical support at $11.75. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $12.44 3/4 and then at $12.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $12.23 1/4 and then
at $12.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March soybean meal closed up $6.10 at $319.20 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two-
month high. Meal bulls have regained the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.30 and then at
$325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $315.60
and then at $312.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March bean oil closed up 69 points at 53.11 cents today.
Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh
10-week high and closed nearer the session low. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for bean oil
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil
and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher. Bean oil
bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 55.52 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 51.41 cents. First resistance is seen at
53.50 cents and then at today’s high of 53.79 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 52.90 cents and then at
52.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents at $6.57
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh seven-week high. More short covering and bargain
hunting were featured today. The key “outside markets” were
in a bullish posture for the wheat market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were sharply higher. Wheat bulls have
regained the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $6.88 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.70 3/4 and
then at $6.75. First support lies at today’s low of $6.53
3/4 and then at $6.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 4 1/2 cents at $7.12 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh seven-week high early on. Bulls and bears are back on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $7.57 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.88. First resistance is seen at $7.17 and then at
$7.25. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.95.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March oats closed down 11 cents at $2.98 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and scored a big and
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Oats
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and
gained fresh downside momentum today. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below major psychological support at the December low of
$2.96 1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the December high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at
today’s low of $2.97 and then at $2.96 1/4. First
resistance is seen at $3.00 and then at $3.05. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 116 points at 24.46 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. Price action today also saw a
bullish upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range
at lower price levels, which does suggest a market low is
now in place. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were sharply higher. Sugar bulls and bears are now on a
level near-term technical playing field. A bullish head-
and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern may now be forming on
the daily bar chart. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 25.00 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the December low of 22.62 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 24.55 cents and
then at 24.75 cents. First support is seen at 24.25 cents
and then at 24.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March coffee closed down 125 points at 225.60 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and scored a mildly bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for the coffee market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil
and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher. Yet, coffee
posted losses anyway, which is a bearish clue for coffee.
Coffee bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
232.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of 212.35 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at last today’s high of 228.00 cents and
then at last week’s high of 229.30 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 222.40 cents and then at 220.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cocoa closed up $1 at $2,110 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture for the cocoa market today, as
the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher. Yet cocoa could not
get much traction, which is a bearish clue. Cocoa bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $2,274. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $1,983. First
resistance is seen at $2,150 and then at today’s high of
$2,170. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,100 and
then at last week’s low of $2,073. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March cotton closed up the 400-point limit at 95.80 cents
today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high and the bulls
regained upside technical momentum today. Short covering
and bargain hunting were featured. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for the cotton market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil
and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply higher. Cotton
bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above major psychological resistance at
100.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of 84.35 cents.
First support is seen at 94.00 cents and then at 93.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 97.50 cents and then at
98.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March orange juice closed up 100 points at $1.7000 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-
week high early on. The key “outside markets” were in a
bullish posture for the FCOJ market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply higher. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$1.7530. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.6400. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $1.7100 and then at $1.7200. First support is seen
at $1.6900 and then at $1.6800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

March lumber futures closed up $2.20 at $263.30 today.
Prices closed near the session low. The lumber bulls still
have some upside momentum to suggest a market low is in
place and that prices can trend higher. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$250.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $272.90. First resistance
is seen at the November high of $266.20 and then at today’s
high of $268.50. First support is seen at $261.00 and then
at $260.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $35.40 an ounce
at $1,602.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
and saw short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest
today. Prices last week hit a three-month low. A lower U.S.
dollar index and sharply higher crude oil prices today
helped to boost gold. Still, serious near-term technical
damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are still in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $1,643.70. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1,523.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,608.70 and then at $1,620.00. First support is seen at
$1,585.00 and then at $1,575.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

March silver futures closed up $1.695 an ounce at $29.61
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Prices last week hit a
three-month low. The key “outside markets” were in a
bullish posture for the silver market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were sharply higher. But silver prices are still in
a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $30.21 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below major technical support at last week’s
low of $26.145. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$29.73 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at $29.00
and then at $28.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,020 points 333.80 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh three-week high. There was some better economic data
coming out of the U.S. and China today, which boosted this
red industrial metal. The key “outside markets” were also
in a bullish posture for the copper market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were sharply higher. Copper bulls now have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 367.40 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of 323.25
cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at
360.00 cents. First support is seen at 350.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 345.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $4.23 a barrel at
$103.06 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit
a fresh six-week high today. A weaker U.S. dollar and
stronger U.S. stock indexes boosted crude today. Fresh
tensions between the U.S. and Iran also boosted crude.
Crude oil bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. However, there is still stiff overhead
resistance layers in the market once prices get over the
$100.00 mark. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above strong technical resistance at the November high of
$103.28 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $98.00. First
resistance is seen at $103.28 and then at $104.00. First
support is seen at $102.00 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

February heating oil closed up 1,277 points at $3.0419
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Bulls gained upside momentum today
and now have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated
today. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $3.0868. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $2.8905. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0453 and then at
$3.0868. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then at
$2.9750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 965 points at
$2.7539 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit
a fresh 10-week high today. Bulls gained good upside
momentum today and have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
August high of $2.9448. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of $2.6301. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2.7590 and then at $2.8000. First support is seen
at $2.7075 and then at today’s low of $2.6647. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

February natural gas closed up 0.2 cents at $2.991 today.
Prices hit a fresh contract low again today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.25. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $2.75. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.074 and then at
$3.15. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$2.936 and then at $2.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 90 points at 1.3058 today. Prices closed near
mid-range and saw short covering in a bear market. Prices
last week hit an 11-month low. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3224. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2750. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3085 and
then at 1.3142. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3020 and then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The March Japanese yen closed up 50 points at 1.3060 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
six-week high. Bulls have gained good upside near-term
technical momentum recently and now have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the November high of 1.3101. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.2833. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.3070 and then at
1.3100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.3030 and
then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 74 points at 1.0744 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1058. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of
1.0501. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0768
and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0694 and then at 1.0625. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 123 points at 1.0294
today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart and
closed near mid-range. Prices did hit a fresh two-month
high today. Bulls have regained the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the October
high of 1.0569. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of .9957. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.0350 and then at 1.0425. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0235 and then at
1.0183. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 58 points at .9879
today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit a
fresh four-week high closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the December high of .9923.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at .9700.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9908 and then
at .9923. First support is seen at today’s low of .9848 and
then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March British pound closed up 135 points at 1.5635
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
1.5761. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the December low
of 1.5350. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.5663 and then at 1.5700. First support is seen at 1.5600
and then at today’s low of 1.5557. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 58 points at 79.93
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of 81.41. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 79.55.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 80.22 and then at
80.50. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.83 and
then at 79.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 17/32 at 143 9/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw profit
taking amid the “risk on” day in the market place. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 141 28/32 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of 145 8/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
143 31/32 and then at 144 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 143 1/32 and then at 142 16/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 16.5 (32nds) at 130.19.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
December high of 131.14.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 129.25.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 130.28.0 and then at 131.00.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 130.15.5 and then at
130.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly higher today in active trading on some fresh,
strong U.S. and China economic news and on investor
optimism on the first trading day of the new year.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 42.75 at 2,317.50
today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit a
fresh four-week high and closed near mid-range today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the December high of
2,344.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 2,204.25. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,328.25 and then at 2,344.75. First
support is seen at 2,300.00 and then at 2,275.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 19.00 at 1,271.60.
Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh
nine-week high and closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the October high of
1,288.70. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
December low of 1,195.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,279.80 and then at 1,288.70. First
support is seen at 1,260.00 and then at 1,250.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 188 points at 12,338 today.
Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh
five-month high and closed nearer the session low today.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 12,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of
11,665. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
12,410 and then at 12,500. First support is seen at 12,300
and then at 12,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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