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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 11

Jul 12, 2012

Wednesday Evening, July 11-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.40 at
$118.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh two-week low as the bulls are fading.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
$121.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $115.40. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $118.65 and then at
$119.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $117.85
and then at $117.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

August feeder cattle closed up $0.87 at $144.22 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
after hitting another fresh 9.5-month low early on. Sharp
losses in the corn market helped fuel the short covering in
feeders today. Today’s price action in feeders produced a
selling “exhaustion tail,” whereby selling interest dried
up at lower price levels and then prices drifted higher.
That is a clue that sellers have become exhausted and that
a market low is in place. Feeder cattle bears do still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$146.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at today’s low of $141.50. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $144.90 and then at $145.60. First
support is seen at $143.20 and then at $142.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

August lean hogs closed down $0.77 at $91.30 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh
two-week low as the bulls have faded. Hog bears now have
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $93.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $89.50.
First resistance is seen at $92.00 and then at today’s high
of $92.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $91.05
and then at $90.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 13 1/2 cents
at $7.04 today, on profit taking. Prices closed nearer the
session low today after hitting a fresh contract and four-
year high early on, following an extremely bullish and
surprising USDA report that dropped the national U.S. corn
average by 20 bushels an acre! The corn market popped
sharply and then sold off sharply, prices did finish off
the daily low. However, any time a market cannot rally on
fresh, very bullish fundamental news, that’s a solid clue
that a market top is in place or very close to it. Today’s
price action in corn also produced a technically bearish
“key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is also
an early technical clue that a market top is in place. How
corn closes this Friday will be telling. A weekly low close
on Friday, or close to it, would be another nail in the
corn bulls’ coffin. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s contract high of $7.48. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75.
First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.13 and
then at $7.25. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at
$6.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November soybeans closed down 13 3/4 cents at $15.24 3/4 a
bushel today, on profit taking. Prices closed nearer the
session low today after hitting a fresh contract and four-
year high early on, following a bullish USDA report that
dropped the national U.S. soybean average by around three
bushels. The bean market popped early on and then sold off
and prices finished nearer the daily low. Any time a market
cannot rally on fresh, bullish fundamental news, that’s a
clue that a market top is in place or very close to it.
Today’s price action in beans also produced a technically
bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which
is also an early technical clue that a market top is in
place. How soybean closes on Friday will be telling. A
weekly low close on Friday, or close to it, would be
another bearish clue. Bean bulls still have the solid near-
term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $16.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $14.78. First
resistance is seen at $15.40 and then at $15.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $15.05 1/4 and then at
$15.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December soybean meal closed down $6.60 at $441.90 today,
on profit taking. The meal market popped early on and then
sold off and prices finished near mid-range. Today’s price
action in meal also produced a technically bearish “key
reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is an early
technical clue that a market top is in place. Meal bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
today’s contract high of $460.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $425.00. First
resistance comes in at $445.00 and then at $450.00. First
support is seen at $440.00 and then at $435.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

December bean oil closed down 49 points at 54.64 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking. Bean oil bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
52.64 cents. First resistance is seen at 55.00 cents and
then at 55.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 54.30 cents and then at 54.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 3/4 cents at $8.39
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and hit a
fresh 10-month high. A bullish USDA report for wheat today
helped boost the market. The wheat market is still closely
following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls have the solid
upside near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2011
high of $8.71 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $8.00. First
resistance is seen at $8.50 and then at today’s high of
$8.60 1/2. First support lies at $8.25 and then at today’s
low of $8.16 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 8 cents at $8.49 3/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Monday
hit a 10-month high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $9.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid psychological support at $8.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.67 and then at
$8.75. First support is seen at $8.40 and then at $8.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December oats closed down 14 1/4 cents at $3.66 1/4 today.
The oats market popped to a fresh 10-month high early on
and then sold off sharply and prices finished nearer the
daily low. Today’s price action in oats produced a
technically bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar
chart, which is an early technical clue that a market top
is in place. Oats bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.50. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $4.00. First support lies
at today’s low of $3.61 and then at $3.55. First resistance
is seen at $3.70 and then at $3.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 46 points at 22.95 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh 11-week high close. Prices are in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 23.50 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 21.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 23.05 cents and then at 23.25
cents. First support is seen at 22.50 cents and then at
this week’s low of 22.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed down 60 points at 183.90 cents, on
mild profit taking. Prices hit a fresh three-month high
early on. The coffee bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage as it appears a major low is
now in place. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 192.20 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 165.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 185.00 cents and then at
last week’s high of 187.10 cents. First support is seen at
182.50 cents and then at 180.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed down $17 at $2,290 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Cocoa bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,480. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,200.
First resistance is seen at this $2,325 and then at today’s
high of $2,348. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,270 and then at this week’s low of $2,252. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed up 30 points at 71.02 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The
cotton bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 74.80 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 64.61 cents. First resistance is seen at
72.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 72.75 cents.
First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 68.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September orange juice closed down 245 points at $1.2575
today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw profit taking
after prices hit a nine-week high Tuesday. FCOJ bulls still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as a
market low appears to be in place and prices are in a
gentle seven-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.3500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the June low of $1.0765. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.2930 and then at this week’s
high of $1.3155. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1.2230 and then at $1.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September lumber futures closed down $1.00 at $284.40
today. Prices closed near mid-range on profit taking after
hitting a seven-week high on Tuesday. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$280.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $297.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $286.00 and then at
$287.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $283.50
and then at $282.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $9.50 an ounce
at $1,570.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
again today. Gold prices were pressured by a firmer U.S.
dollar index and by the afternoon FOMC minutes that
provided no fresh clues on an upcoming easing from the Fed.
The gold market bulls are fading and need to show fresh
power soon to avoid fresh chart damage being inflicted. The
gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $1,625.70. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,547.60. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1,583.40 and then at Monday’s high of $1,593.10.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,564.40 and
then at $1,556.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

September silver futures closed up $0.028 an ounce at
$26.91 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index. Silver
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and
trading has been choppy recently. Prices are still in a
four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $26.105. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $27.24 and then at
this week’s high of $27.58. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of $26.71 and then at $26.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 120 points 341.00 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering. Copper bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 355.65 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 342.50
cents and then at today’s high of 345.25 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 338.20 cents and then
at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $2.44 a barrel at
$86.34 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
saw short covering and were also supported by a bullish
weekly DOE energy stocks report. Recent price action is a
solid clue that a market low in crude oil is in place. The
crude bears do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $82.00. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and
then at $87.50. First support is seen at $86.00 and then at
$85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

August heating oil closed up 500 points at $2.7695 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but a market low
is likely now in place, or close to it. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.8500. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at the June low of $2.5084. First
resistance lies at last week’s high of $2.7899 and then at
$2.8000. First support is seen at $2.7500 and then at
today’s low of $2.7218. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 326 points at
$2.7795 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and closed at a fresh six-week high close. Bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage but it
appears a market bottom is now in place. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.8500. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at last week’s low of $2.5700. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2.7950 and then
at $2.8250. First support is seen at $2.7500 and then at
today’s low of $2.7300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

August natural gas closed up 11.2 cents at $2.849 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.06. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $2.65. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.915 and then at the June high of $2.975. First support
is seen at $2.80 and then at today’s low of $2.718.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 9 points at 1.2254 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh two-year
low. The Euro bears have downside technical momentum and
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2703.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2308 and
then at this week’s high of 1.2345. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2222 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

The September Japanese yen closed down 37 points at 1.2565
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
Bulls are still on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.2737. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2300. First
resistance is seen at 1.2600 and then at today’s high of
1.2647. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2547 and
then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September Swiss franc closed down 8 points at 1.0210
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh two-year low. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage in the Swissy. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.0500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 1.0100. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0254 and then at
this week’s high of 1.0286. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0186 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 58 points at
1.0180 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the April high of 1.0325. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9894.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0217 and then
at last week’s high of 1.0261. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.0174 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 29 points at .9791
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at .9925. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of .9632. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of .9821 and then at
.9850. First support is seen at today’s low of .9760 and
then at .9725. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September British pound closed down 2 points at 1.5500
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the June low of
1.5266. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5575
and then at 1.5600. First support is seen at last week’s
low of 1.5458 and then at 1.5400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 6 points at 83.62
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. Greenback bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum and have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 83.76 and
then at 84.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
83.13 and then at 82.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 5/32 at 150 27/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking
after hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 148 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of 152 19/32. First
resistance is seen at 151 even and then at today’s high of
151 24/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 150
14/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 5.0 (32nds) at 134.15.0
today. Prices closed near the session low and did hit a
fresh six-week high early on. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the contract high of 134.30.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.16.0. First resistance is seen at 134.20.5 and then at
today’s high of 134.29.5. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 134.11.0 and then at 134.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed to weaker today as the bulls are fading and need to
show fresh power soon. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes
provided little fresh information for traders and
investors, and no fresh clues on U.S. monetary policy
actions upcoming. Most market bulls want the Fed to embark
on another round of quantitative easing of monetary policy—
nicknamed QE3--and were hoping in the FOMC minutes to find
fresh hints from the Fed that such is coming soon. The
notable overnight news Wednesday was record low yields on
German 10-year bonds fetched Wednesday, at 1.31%. Such
suggests there is still keen investor uncertainty in the
market place.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 16.50 at
2,561.50. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,503.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,589.25 and then at 2,600.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,543.00 and then
at 2,525.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.30 at 1,336.30.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,302.70. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,342.30 and then at this week’s high of 1,356.30.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,328.20 and then
at 1,315.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 49 points at 12,536 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,300. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,600 and then at 12,650. First
support is seen at 12,500 and then at today’s low of
12,468. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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