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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 12

Jul 13, 2012

Thursday Evening, July 12-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.95 at
$117.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh three-week low as the bulls are
fading badly. Cash cattle market fundamentals are also
deteriorating. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $119.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of $115.40. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $117.75 and then at
$118.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $117.00
and then at $116.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

August feeder cattle closed down $2.87 at $141.35 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh 9.5-month low. Sharp gains in the corn market helped
sink feeders again today. Today’s price action in feeders
reaffirms the bears are in strong technical command. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $145.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $140.00. First resistance is
seen at $142.00 and then at $142.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $141.22 and then at $141.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

August lean hogs closed up $0.97 at $92.27 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw short covering. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $93.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $92.90 and then at $93.40. First support is
seen at today’s low of $91.82 and then at this week’s low
of $91.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 30 cents at
$7.34 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and were boosted by extended Corn Belt weather forecasts
calling for very hot temps and little rain in the next
week, or longer. Bargain hunters stepped in to buy
Thursday’s dip. However, Wednesday’s price action in corn
produced a technically bearish “key reversal” down on the
daily bar chart, which is still an early technical clue
that a market top is in place. How corn closes Friday will
be telling. A weekly low close on Friday, or close to it,
would be another nail in the corn bulls’ coffin. But a
close near the weekly high on Friday means “game on” for
the corn market bulls. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at Wednesday’s contract high of $7.48.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
Wednesday’s low of $6.85 1/4. First resistance for December
corn is seen at today’s high of $7.39 and then at $7.48.
First support is seen at $7.25 and then at $7.13. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0

November soybeans closed up 11 1/2 cents at $15.34 a bushel
today, on the hot and dry Corn Belt extended weather
forecasts. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Still, Wednesday’s price action in beans produced a
technically bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar
chart, which is still an early technical clue that a market
top is in place. How soybean closes on Friday will be
telling. A weekly low close on Friday, or close to it,
would be another bearish clue. A close on Friday near the
weekly high would reinvigorate the bulls to suggest further
upside price action to come. Bean bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $16.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $14.78. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.42 1/2 and then
at $15.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $15.10
1/2 and then at $15.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December soybean meal closed up $5.00 at $445.50 today, on
bargain hunting. Still, Wednesday’s price action in meal
also produced a technically bearish “key reversal” down on
the daily bar chart, which is still an early technical clue
that a market top is in place. Meal bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at Wednesday’s
contract high of $460.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $425.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $449.70 and then at $454.50. First
support is seen at $442.00 and then at today’s low of
$439.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December bean oil closed down 14 points at 54.52 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean
oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 56.00 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 52.64 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 54.90 cents and then
at 55.20 cents. First support is seen at 54.30 cents and
then at today’s low of 53.91 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 22 1/2 cents at $8.60
3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit another fresh 10-month high. The wheat market is still
closely following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls have the
solid upside near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the August
2011 high of $8.71 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $8.00.
First resistance is seen at $8.71 and then at $8.85. First
support lies at $8.50 and then at $8.40. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 16 cents at $8.66 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh 10-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $9.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $8.25. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $8.75 3/4 and then at $8.85. First
support is seen at $8.50 and then at today’s low of $8.44.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December oats closed up 5 3/4 cents at $3.72 today. Prices
closed near the session high. Still, Wednesday’s price
action in oats produced a technically bearish “key
reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is still an
early technical clue that a market top is in place. Oats
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at $3.70 and then at $3.65. First
resistance is seen at $3.75 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 36 points at 22.52
cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and scored
a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Prices are still in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at 23.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 21.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 22.69
cents and then at this week’s high of 23.05 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 22.16 cents and then at
22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed down 210 points at 182.60 cents, on
more profit taking. Prices hit a fresh three-month high on
Wednesday. The coffee bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage as it appears a major low is
now in place. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of 192.20 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 185.00 cents and then at
last week’s high of 187.10 cents. First support is seen at
180.00 cents and then at today’s low of 178.15 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed down $103 at $2,189 a ton. Prices
gapped lower on the daily bar chart and closed nearer the
session low today. Prices also hit a fresh three-week low
as the bulls faded badly today. Cocoa bear now have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,100. First resistance is seen at $2,200 and then at
$2,225. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,174 and
then at $2,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed down 102 points at 70.00 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh two-week low. The cotton bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the June high of 74.80
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 64.61 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 71.40 cents and then
at this week’s high of 72.60 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 69.66 cents and then at 68.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September orange juice closed down 210 points at $1.2320
today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more profit
taking after prices hit a nine-week high Tuesday. FCOJ
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. A
gentle seven-week-old uptrend is still in place on the
daily chart. The next upside price breakout objective for
the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
technical resistance at $1.3500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.2550 and then at $1.2750. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.2040 and then at $1.1850. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

September lumber futures closed up $4.10 at $288.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$280.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $297.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $289.50 and then at
this week’s high of $293.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $285.00 and then at this week’s low of
$283.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $8.70 an ounce
at $1,567.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The
key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
weaker. The gold market bulls are fading and need to show
fresh power soon to avoid fresh chart damage being
inflicted. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,547.60. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1,577.90 and then at Wednesday’s high of
$1,583.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,554.40 and then at $1,550.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
4.0

September silver futures closed up $0.102 an ounce at
$27.125 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart. Short covering was featured. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. That did
limit gains in silver. Silver bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage and trading has been choppy
recently. Prices are still in a four-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $28.445 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of $26.105. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$27.33 and then at this week’s high of $27.58. Next support
is seen at $26.71 and then at today’s low of $26.42.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 255 points 342.20 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Copper
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 355.65 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 325.00
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
345.25 cents and then at 348.10 cents. First support is
seen at 340.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 338.20
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $0.11 a barrel at
$85.92 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw more short covering. Recent price action is still a
clue that a market low in crude oil is in place. The crude
bears do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $82.00. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and
then at $87.50. First support is seen at $85.00 and then at
today’s low of $84.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

August heating oil closed up 70 points at $2.7684 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but a
market low is likely now in place, or close to it. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the June low of $2.5084.
First resistance lies at last week’s high of $2.7899 and
then at $2.8000. First support is seen at $2.7500 and then
at today’s low of $2.7085. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 301 points at
$2.7990 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh six-week high. Bulls and bears are now on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.9000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $2.6800. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.8144 and then at $2.8272. First support
is seen at $2.7800 and then at $2.7500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

August natural gas closed up 2.6 cents at $2.879 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.06. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $2.65. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.92
and then at the June high of $2.975. First support is seen
at $2.80 and then at this week’s low of $2.718. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 12 points at 1.2220 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh two-year
low. The Euro bears have downside technical momentum and
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2703.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2259 and
then at 1.2308. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2176 and then at 1.2150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 57 points at 1.2622
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls are on a level near-term technical playing field with
the bears. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2737. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2300. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of 1.2647 and then at 1.2700. First
support is seen at 1.2550 and then at today’s low of
1.2514. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September Swiss franc closed down 14 points at 1.0179
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh two-year low. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage in the Swissy. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.0500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 1.0100. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0215 and then at
1.0254. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0146 and
then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 70 points at
1.0091 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of
1.0325. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
.9894. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0199
and then at this week’s high of 1.0217. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0040 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 37 points at .9810
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at .9925. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of .9632.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of .9821 and
then at .9850. First support is seen at today’s low of
.9740 and then at .9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September British pound closed down 51 points at 1.5434
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
four-week low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage
and gained fresh downside momentum today. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the July high of
1.5720. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the June low of
1.5266. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5514
and then at this week’s high of 1.5575. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5390 and then at 1.5300. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 4 points at 83.77
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh six-week high. Greenback bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum and have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at 84.00 and then at 84.25.
First support is seen at 83.50 and then at Wednesday’s low
of 83.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 15/32 at 151 20/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh six-week high close. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 148 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of
151 24/32 and then at 152 even. First support is seen at
151 even and then at today’s low of 150 22/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 2.5 (32nds) at 134.21.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at
a fresh six-week high close today. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the contract high of 134.30.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
134.24.0 and then at this week’s high of 134.29.5. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 134.11.0 and then at
134.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker again today as the bulls are fading and need to show
fresh power soon. It was a mild “risk-off” trading day in
the market place Thursday. This follows Wednesday
afternoon’s FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve that
confirmed a sluggish U.S. economy, but provided no fresh
clues on any upcoming Fed monetary-policy-easing moves.
Most market bulls wanted the Fed to signal it’s embarking
on another round of quantitative easing—nicknamed QE3.
There are now fears that fresh China second-quarter GDP
data due out Friday will also be downbeat. On a slightly
positive note coming out of the European Union, Italian
government shorter-term borrowing costs have backed off
just a bit, which hints that the EU debt crisis has
stabilized, for the moment at least.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 23.75 at
2,537.75. Prices closed nearer the session low again today
and hit a fresh two-week low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,503.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,569.75 and then at 2,589.25. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,516.50 and then at 2,503.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 7.10 at 1,329.20.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week
low. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,302.70. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,339.40 and then at this week’s
high of 1,356.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,320.00 and then at 1,302.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 34 points at 12,502 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-week low
today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 12,890. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
12,300. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
12,560 and then at 12,600. First support is seen at today’s
low of 12,425 and then at 12,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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