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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 30

Jul 31, 2012

Monday Evening, July 30-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $0.55 at
$125.82 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh 10-week high. Prices surged on Friday to produce a
bullish weekly high close. Bargain hunting and more short
covering were featured. Recent strong gains are a solid
clue the cattle market has put in a near-term low and can
work sideways to higher in the near term. Cattle futures
bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of $127.05. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $122.15. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$126.45 and then at $127.05. First support is seen at
today’s low of $124.95 and then at $124.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

October feeder cattle closed down $0.32 at $140.07 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today as feeders
appear to be “basing” at lower price levels, which could
mean a market low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$143.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $136.15. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $140.75 and then at $141.70. First
support is seen at $139.00 and then at today’s low of
$138.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

October lean hogs closed up $0.65 at $81.97 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-week
high today. Bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a
market low is in place and that prices can work sideways to
higher in the near term. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at the July high of $84.15.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of $79.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$82.30 and then at $83.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of $81.30 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 20 3/4 cents at
$8.14 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh contract high. Prices posted a
bullish upside “breakout” from the recent choppy trading
range, which suggests another leg up in prices is now
possible. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a steep uptrend is in place from the
June low. Remember, however, this market is a very mature
bull market. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above psychological resistance at
$8.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $7.45 1/2. First resistance for December corn is
seen at today’s contract high of $8.17 3/4 and then at
$8.25. First support is seen at $8.00 and then at today’s
low of $7.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0

November soybeans closed up 42 1/4 cents at $16.44 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today as the
mature bull market rolls on. Soybeans will take over the
lead from the corn market in big grain market moves in the
coming weeks. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage as the major U.S. drought worsens. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
psychological resistance at $17.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $15.75.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.48 and then
at $16.75. First support is seen at $16.25 and then at
today’s low of $16.17 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December soybean meal closed up $18.30 at $495.20 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Meal bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $509.80. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $454.30. First resistance comes
in at $500.00 and then at $509.80. First support is seen at
$490.00 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil closed up 60 points at 53.41 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bean oil bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 55.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 52.08
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.70
cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 53.01 cents and then at 52.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 17 3/4 cents at $9.29
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
wheat market is still closely following corn and soybeans.
However, there are also bullish fundamentals at work in the
wheat market, including weather problems in the U.S. plains
and the Black Sea wheat regions. Wheat bulls have the solid
upside near-term technical advantage. However, this is a
very mature bull market run. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
$9.77 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.64 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.21 1/4 and
then at the July high of $9.53 1/4. First support lies at
today’s low of $9.16 3/4 and then at $9.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 15 cents at $9.41 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the bull market run is very mature. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the contract
high of $9.92 3/4. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.74. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.45 and then at the July high of $9.57
1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $9.27 1/4 and
then at $9.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December oats closed up 7 cents at $3.86 3/4 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Oats bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $4.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.84 and then at $3.80.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.90 and then
at the July high of $3.92 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 36 points at 22.88 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Sugar
prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart, but just barely. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 24.00 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.65 cents. First
resistance is seen at 23.00 cents and then at 23.28 cents.
First support is seen at 22.50 cents and then at last
week’s low of 22.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed up 440 points at 178.10 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering. Bulls had faded and needed to show fresh power
soon. Bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 185.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 173.05 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 178.90
cents and then at 180.00 cents. First support is seen at
175.00 cents and then at 173.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

September cocoa closed up $11 at $2,341 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh four-week
high early on. Cocoa bulls now have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$2,375. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $2,159. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,356 and then at $2,375. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2,320 and then at $2,300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed down 28 points at 71.17 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range as choppy and sideways trading
action continues. The cotton bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, this market still
may be “basing” at lower price levels, which means a market
low could be in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 74.80 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 67.16 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and
then at 72.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 70.50 cents and then at 70.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

September orange juice closed up 195 points at $1.1200
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw short
covering following recent selling pressure. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the June low of $1.0765. First resistance is
seen at $1.1500 and then at today’s high of $1.1675. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.1040 and then at
$1.0765. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September lumber futures closed down $2.50 at $283.80
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $277.50. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $296.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $287.00 and then at
$290.00. First support is seen at $282.50 and then at
$280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $2.00 an ounce
at $1,624.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today in quiet, summertime trading. The gold market bulls
have gained some upside near-term technical momentum
recently as prices last Friday hit a fresh five-week high
and closed at a technically bullish weekly high close. The
bulls have gained the slight near-term technical advantage.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of $1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below psychological
support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1,630.00 and then at last week’s high of
$1,633.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,617.60 and then at Friday’s low of $1,604.90. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 5.5

September silver futures closed up $0.522 an ounce at
$28.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit
a fresh four-week high today. Silver bulls did gain a bit
of fresh upside near-term technical momentum today. Silver
bears do still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, however. Prices are still in a five-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$26.575. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.11
and then at $28.445. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$27.515 and then at $27.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 80 points 341.80 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bulls and
bears are presently on a near-term level technical playing
field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of 355.65 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 333.20 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 345.55 cents
and then at 347.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 340.25 cents and then at Friday’s low of 337.90
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed down $0.63 a barrel
at $89.49 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw some profit-taking pressure. Recent price action is
a clue that a market low in crude oil is in place. The
crude bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$86.00. First resistance is seen at $90.00 and then at
today’s high of $90.95. First support is seen at $89.00 and
then at $88.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed down 149 points at $2.8757
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.7500. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $2.8974 and then at $2.9250. First
support is seen at $2.8500 and then at $2.8250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 123 points at
$2.8090 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.9250. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at last week’s low of $2.6551. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.8258 and then at
the July high of $2.8474. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2.7915 and then at $2.7750. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

September natural gas closed up 19.3 cents at $3.208 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 6.5-
month high today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$3.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$2.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.231
and then at $3.30. First support is seen at $3.10 and then
today’s low of $3.03. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 54 points at 1.2263 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The Euro bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of
1.2051. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.2317 and then at last week’s high of 1.2397. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.2233 and then at
1.2171. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 66 points at 1.2797
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the June high of 1.2895. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2600. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2808 and then at last week’s high of
1.2854. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2737 and
then at last week’s low of 1.2717. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 42 points at 1.0217
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0260 and then at 1.0300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0190 and then at 1.0142. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 26 points at
1.0451 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again
today and hit a fresh five-month high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the March high of 1.0557. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0125. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0461
and then at 1.0500. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0402 and then at 1.0336. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 23 points at .9971
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of .9761. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
.9976 and then at 1.0000. First support is seen at today’s
low of .9936 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The September British pound closed down 14 points at 1.5710
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Friday
hit a six-week high. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 1.5773. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5456.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5739 and then
at 1.5773. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5671
and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 11 points at
82.88 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Greenback
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading a bit. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 84.24. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 83.25 and
then at 83.46. First support is seen at today’s low of
82.73 and then at last week’s low of 82.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 3/32 at 151 4/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Last
Friday’s big losses were partly recovered today. Prices are
still in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
148 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
last week’s contract high of 153 11/32. First resistance is
seen at 151 16/32 and then at 152 even. First support is
seen at 150 16/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 16.0 (32nds) at 134.20.0
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
regained much of Friday’s big losses. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s contract high of 135.15.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at 135.00.0 and then at
the contract high of 135.15.5. First support is seen at
today’s low of 134.00.5 and then at last week’s low of
133.26.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
slightly lower today. The bulls still have the slight near-
term technical advantage in the indexes. Focus of the
market place this week is on the two-day FOMC meeting of
the U.S. Federal Reserve, which starts Tuesday and ends
early Wednesday afternoon. Also, the European Central
Bank’s policy meeting and press conference are on Thursday.
The Bank of England also meets to discuss its monetary
policy, with results on Thursday. Market watchers will be
closely scrutinizing these central bank meetings for any
fresh clues on the implementation of quantitative easing of
monetary policies. Such would be at least initially bullish
for many markets, including the stock indexes. Then on
Friday comes the all-important U.S. jobs report, which
could be a big market-moving event. In overnight news, it
was reported Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Euro zone
finance ministers, said the EU and ECB will soon take steps
to eliminate the potential for a spreading debt contagion
in the European Union. With the month of August just around
the corner, much of Europe is set to go on holiday, which
means the market place will have fewer players the next few
weeks. Such could make for generally quite, choppy and
range-bound trading for many markets.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 6.25 at
2,635.75. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the July low of 2,516.50. First
resistance is seen at the July high of 2,658.00 and then at
2,675.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,628.75
and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 2.00 at 1,380.50.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 10-week
high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the July low of 1,320.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,387.30 and
then at 1,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,376.00 and then at 1,353.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The Dow futures closed down 32 points at 13,001 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and did hit a
fresh 11-week high early on. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,400. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,071 and then at
13,200. First support is seen at 12,950 and then at 12,900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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