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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--June 18

Jun 19, 2012

Monday Evening, June 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $1.35 at $118.00
today. The market saw short covering in a bear market after
prices on Friday hit a six-week low and closed at a bearish
weekly low close. Serious near-term chart damage has been
inflicted as the bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $120.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $114.70. First
resistance is seen at $118.50 and then at $119.00. First
support is seen at $117.50 and then at $117.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

August feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $156.12 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three-
week low early on. Significant chart damage has occurred
recently. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed
on the daily bar chart. Bulls are bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $159.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$154.80. First resistance is seen at $157.00 and then at
$157.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $155.22
and then at $154.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

August lean hogs closed up $1.95 at $93.15 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a nine-week high
today. Hog market bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the
April high of $95.15. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $91.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $93.50 and then at $94.00. First support is
seen at $92.50 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 21 1/4 cents at
$6.01 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. A significant weather market is playing out in the
U.S. Corn Belt, amid hot, dry weather with not much
rainfall in the forecasts. The technical posture of the
corn market is not bullish, but the weather patterns in the
Corn Belt the next several weeks will trump the technicals.
Corn market bears do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.20. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.75 1/2.
First resistance for July corn is seen at last week’s high
of $6.08 1/2 and then at $6.12. First support is seen at
$5.95 and then at today’s low of $5.91 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

July soybeans closed up 11 cents at $13.87 a bushel today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The dry and hot
weather, with little rain in the forecast, was bullish for
beans today. However, the key “outside markets” were
bearish for beans today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Bean bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a
bit. If the weather remains hot and dry in the Corn Belt,
soybeans will begin to react strongly to the upside. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $14.49 1/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at $14.00 and
then at $14.15 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of
$13.75 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $13.70 3/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

July soybean meal closed up $2.40 at $412.50 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Meal bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the contract high
of $439.90. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at
$415.00 and then at today’s high of $418.10. First support
is seen at today’s low of $409.30 and then at $407.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

July bean oil closed up 27 points at 48.71 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for bean oil today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower.
Bean oil bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 50.39 cents. Bean
oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at 47.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and
then at 49.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 48.51 cents and then at 48.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 20 1/2 cents at $6.30
today. Prices closed nearer mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Trading has turned choppy. Wheat
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, if corn and soybeans take off on a weather market
bull run, wheat will follow. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at the June high of $6.46 1/2 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.34 and then at $6.40. First support lies
at $6.20 and then at today’s low of $6.12. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 20 cents at $6.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.70. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.29.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.53 3/4 and
then at $6.62. First support is seen at today’s low of
$6.43 and then at $6.37. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July oats closed up 6 1/4 cents at $3.14 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh four-week high.
Bulls have gained upside technical momentum as a four-week-
old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $2.90 3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.25. First support lies at $3.12
and then at $3.10. First resistance is seen at $3.20 and
then at today’s high of $3.21 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 1 point at 20.83 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh six-week high early on. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Sugar bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
Friday’s big gains did give the bulls some fresh upside
near-term technical momentum. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 21.50 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 19.75 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 21.03 cents and then at the May
high of 21.17 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 20.70 cents and then at 20.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

July coffee closed down 110 points at 148.95 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-year low.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for coffee today, as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
lower. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 160.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 145.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 150.90 cents and then
at 152.60 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
148.20 cents and then at 147.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $44 at $2,175 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Cocoa bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the June
high of $2,282. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $2,026. First
resistance is seen at $2200 and then at $2,225. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,163 and then at
$2,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July cotton again closed up the 300-point limit at 82.98
cents today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high today as
bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical
momentum. A big USDA export sale to China late last week
has helped to reignite the bulls. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 86.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
78.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 84.00 cents and
then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents
and then at 81.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

July orange juice closed up 195 points at $1.1125 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. FCOJ bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2000. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the May low of $.9710. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.1365 and then at last week’s high of
$1.1575. First support is seen at $1.1000 and then at last
week’s low of $1.0710 and then at $1.0600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July lumber futures closed down $5.70 at $266.50 today.
Prices hit a two-month low today as bears now have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the April low of $262.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $276.00. First resistance is
seen at $268.50 and then at $270.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $265.50 and then at $263.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $0.70 an ounce
at $1,627.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today on some chart consolidation following recent gains.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
lower. Yet, gold managed to have only small losses, which
does suggest safe-haven demand for gold is present. Gold
market bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of $1,642.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,580.00. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $1,635.40 and then at $1,642.40. First
support is seen at $1,620.00 and then at today’s low of
$1,606.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

July silver futures closed down $0.03 an ounce at $28.71
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. Trading
has once again turned choppy and sideways. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $30.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$27.17. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$29.095 and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at today’s
low of $28.235 and then at $27.91. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 75 points 339.10 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh three-week high early on. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Copper bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 323.80 cents. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of 341.95 cents and then at 343.05 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 336.75 cents and
then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed down $1.05 a barrel at
$83.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. The stronger U.S. dollar index weighed on crude oil
prices today. The crude bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are still no early
technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at
hand. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $87.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$80.00. First resistance is seen at $84.00 and then at
$85.00. First support is seen at $82.00 and then at last
week’s low of $81.07. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July heating oil closed down 310 points at $2.6155 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as
prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.5000. First
resistance lies at $2.6500 and then at today’s high of
$2.6801. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$2.5976 and then at the June low of $2.5641. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 455 points at
$2.6562 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
An 11-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.8000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.5000. First
resistance is seen at $2.7000 and then at today’s high of
$2.7303. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.6490
and then at last week’s low of $2.6285. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July natural gas closed up 17.7 cents at $2.644 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Short covering and bargain hunting
were featured again today. Bulls have gained good upside
near-term technical momentum recently to suggest a market
low is in place. Bulls and bears are now on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the May high of $2.838. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.35.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.652 and then
at $2.70. First support is seen at $2.60 and then at $2.55.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 62 points at 1.2585 today. Prices
closed near the session low today after hitting a fresh
four-week high early on. Prices also scored a big and
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
The Euro bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.2838. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at the June low of 1.2298. First resistance for the
Euro lies at 1.2650 and then at 1.2700. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2567 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed down 68 points at 1.2656
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the June high of 1.2895. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.2435. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2697 and then at last week’s high of
1.2737. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2623 and
then at 1.2591. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The September Swiss franc closed down 56 points at 1.0492
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage
in the Swissy. However, a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily chart has been negated. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0684. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 1.0280. First
resistance is seen at 1.0541 and then at 1.0580. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0477 and then at
1.0413. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 25 points at
1.0028 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh six-week high. Bulls have gained fresh
upside technical momentum recently and are on a level near-
term technical playing field with the bears. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0200. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9750. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.0059 and then at 1.0100. Next
support is seen at today’s low of .9973 and then at .9900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The September Canadian dollar closed down 13 points at
.9741 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at .9925. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of .9554.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9795 and then
at .9850. First support is seen at .9700 and then at last
week’s low of .9663 and then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

The September British pound closed down 18 points at 1.5658
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Friday hit a fresh three-week high and closed at a bullish
weekly high close. Bears have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.5800. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5400. First resistance is seen at 1.5700 and
then at last week’s high of 1.5747. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1.5631 and then at 1.5593. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 26 points at
82.23 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh four-week low early on. Price action today
also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
June high of 84.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 81.00. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 82.36 and then at 82.75. First support is seen at
last week’s low of 81.71 and then at today’s low of 81.43.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 5/32 at 149 26/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. There are still no early technical clues to
suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 146 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the contract high
of 152 19/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
150 9/32 and then at 150 24/32. First support is seen at
149 even and then at today’s low of 148 12/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 1.0 (32nds) at 133.24.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
contract high of 134.30.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 132.16.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.31.5 and then at 134.05.5. First
support is seen at 133.16.0 and then at today’s low of
133.07.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. The Sunday Greek elections went pretty much as
expected as the pro-bailout and more conservative party
barely won. However, a coalition government still needs to
be formed in Greece. German government officials applauded
Greek elections and said Greece is moving in the right
direction. European and U.S. stocks were narrowly mixed on
the Greek election news, which is not a ringing endorsement
from investors. Spain and Italy are now in focus. Spanish
10-year bond yields rose to above 7% on Monday. A G-20
meeting in Mexico Monday and Tuesday will be watched
closely for any fresh pronouncements on the EU debt crisis.
With the Greek elections past, attention of the market
place quickly turned to this week’s meeting of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, which will
determine the next course of U.S. monetary policy. The
meeting starts Tuesday and ends early Wednesday afternoon.
The recent generally downbeat U.S. data has led to growing
expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy—
nicknamed “QE3.” Most reckon the Fed will implement some
form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this week’s
meeting.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 25.00 at 2,589.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and
closed at a fresh five-week high close. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the June low of 2,433.75. First resistance is
seen at the June high of 2,598.00 and then at 2,625.00.
First support is seen at 2,575.00 and then at today’s low
of 2,549.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.30 at 1,340.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
five-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,360.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at the June low of
1,262.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,327.50 and then at 1,315.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed down 24 points at 12,686 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Prices Friday
hit a four-week high. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 12,800. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 12,300. First resistance in the Dow lies at last week’s
high of 12,710 and then at 12,750. First support is seen at
today’s low of 12,630 and then at 12,600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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