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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--June 19

Jun 20, 2012

Tuesday Evening, June 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.42 at
$117.55 today. The market was pressured by sagging cash
market fundamentals. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower
and crude oil prices were higher. Yet, cattle futures could
not manage gains, which is a bearish clue. Traders are
awaiting Friday afternoon’s USDA cattle on feed report.
Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently
as the bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $120.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $114.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $118.25 and then at
$119.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $117.35
and then at $117.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

August feeder cattle closed down $2.55 at $153.57 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
seven-week low. The big gains in corn recently have
pressured the feeders. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred in feeders recently. A bearish double-top reversal
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $157.40. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $150.50. First resistance is
seen at $154.00 and then at today’s high of $154.80. First
support is seen at today’s low of $153.57 and then at
$153.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

August lean hogs closed down $0.42 at $92.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low on some profit-taking after
prices hit a nine-week high on Monday. Hog market bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the
April high of $95.15. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $91.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $93.50 and then at $94.00. First support is
seen at $92.50 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 11 1/2 cents at
$6.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh four-week high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for corn today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. But more
importantly, a potentially serious weather market is
playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, amid hot, dry weather
with not much rainfall in the forecasts. Weather in the
Corn Belt the next several weeks will trump the technicals.
Corn market bulls and bears are now on a level near-term
technical playing field. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.25. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$5.75 1/2. First resistance for July corn is seen at
today’s high of $6.17 and then at $6.20. First support is
seen at $6.05 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

July soybeans closed up 49 cents at $14.33 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh five-week high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for soybeans today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. The dry and
hot weather, with little rain in the forecast, is bullish
for beans. Bean bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and regained upside momentum today. If the
weather remains hot and dry in the Corn Belt, soybeans will
continue to react strongly to the upside. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $13.70 3/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $14.51 1/2 and then at $14.65. First
support is seen at $14.25 and then at $14.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

July soybean meal closed up $13.90 at $426.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Meal bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and regained upside
momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $439.90. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $409.30. First resistance comes in at $430.00
and then at today’s high of $432.90. First support is seen
at $425.00 and then at $420.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0

July bean oil closed up 157 points at 50.33 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-
week high today, on short covering. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for bean oil today as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Bean oil bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 51.28 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 47.76 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 50.65 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support
is seen at 50.00 cents and then at 49.75 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 19 1/4 cents at $6.49 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh three-week high and saw more short covering. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for wheat today as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Wheat is following corn and soybeans and if corn
and soybeans continue to rally on a weather market bull
run, wheat will follow. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.70 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $6.07 1/2. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $6.52 and then at $6.60. First
support lies at $6.40 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 19 1/2 cents at $6.70 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high on short covering. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have
gained good upside momentum. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.29.
First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at $6.80. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.62 and then at $6.53
3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July oats closed up 6 3/4 cents at $3.22 3/4 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh four-week
high. Bulls have gained upside technical momentum as a
four-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below major psychological
support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $3.50. First
support lies at $3.20 and then at today’s low of $3.16.
First resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at $3.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 61 points at 21.47 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today, hit a
fresh seven-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. The recent
big gains have given the bulls good upside near-term
technical momentum. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 22.50 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 19.75 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 21.60 cents and then at 22.00 cents.
First support is seen at 21.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 20.63 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

July coffee closed up 660 points at 156.15 cents. Prices
closed near the session high and saw heavy short covering
in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower
and crude oil prices were higher. Coffee prices are still
in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 160.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
145.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 156.70 cents and then at 158.00 cents. First
support is seen at 155.00 cents and then at 152.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July cocoa closed up $36 at $2,210 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today on short covering. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for cocoa today as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $2,282. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
June low of $2,026. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2235 and then at $2,250. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,180 and then at this week’s low of
$2,163. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July cotton closed up the expanded 500-point limit at 87.98
cents today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high again today
as bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical
momentum. A big USDA export sale to China late last week
has helped to reignite the bulls. The key “outside markets”
were also bullish for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 94.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 89.00 cents and then at 90.00 cents. First support is
seen at 87.00 cents and then at 86.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

July orange juice closed up 785 points at $1.2040 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering. FCOJ bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but the bulls are gaining upside
momentum to suggest a market low is in place. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the June low of $1.0710. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.2050 and then at $1.2250. First
support is seen at $1.1750 and then at $1.1500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July lumber futures closed up $6.60 at $273.10 today.
Prices saw good gains today on short covering and on a
better U.S. housing report. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the April
low of $262.50. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $278.00. First resistance is seen
at $275.00 and then at $276.00. First support is seen at
$272.00 and then at $270.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $3.10 an ounce
at $1,623.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
saw some profit-taking pressure from recent gains and some
position evening ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC results. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Gold market bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $1,642.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at $1,580.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,635.40 and
then at $1,642.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,618.10 and then at this week’s low of $1,606.90.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

July silver futures closed down $0.213 an ounce at $28.455
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for silver today as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were
higher. Yet, silver could not manage gains today, which is
a bearish clue. Trading has turned choppy and sideways.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $30.00 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of $27.17. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $29.095 and then at $29.50. Next support is
seen at this week’s low of $28.235 and then at $27.91.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 420 points 343.75 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-week high close. Short covering was featured.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for copper today as
the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil
prices were higher. Copper bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 345.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 347.75 cents. First support is seen at 340.00 cents
and then at today’s low of 337.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $0.85 a barrel at
$84.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw short covering in a bear market. The lower U.S.
dollar index was also bullish for crude today. The crude
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $88.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $80.00. First resistance is seen at $85.00 and
then at this week’s high of $85.89. First support is seen
at $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

August heating oil closed up 182 points at $2.6380 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as prices are in a 2.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.5000. First resistance lies at
$2.6500 and then at this week’s high of $2.6801. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.5919 and then at the
June low of $2.5724. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 127 points at
$2.5738 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. An 11-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.5000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.5960 and then at $2.6250. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.5531 and then at the June low of $2.5384.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

August natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.584 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a
corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Prices did
hit a fresh four-week high early on today. Bulls have
gained good upside near-term technical momentum recently to
suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of $2.838.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.35.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.705 and then
at $2.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.536
and then at $2.489. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 112 points at 1.2704 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and closed at a fresh
four-week high close. The Euro bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been
trending higher for nearly three weeks. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2838. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2450. First
resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.2759
and then at 1.2800. Next support is seen at 1.2650 and then
at 1.2600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 10 points at 1.2664
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the June high of 1.2895.
Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.2435. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.2699 and then at last week’s
high of 1.2737. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.2623 and then at 1.2591. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The September Swiss franc closed up 95 points at 1.0594
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh four-week high close. The bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. However, a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily
chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0684. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 1.0280. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0638 and then
at 1.0684. First support is seen at 1.0550 and then at
1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 75 points at
1.0115 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit another fresh six-week high. Bulls have gained good
upside technical momentum recently and now have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the April high of 1.0325. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at .9750. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0119 and then at
1.0200. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0023 and
then at this week’s low of .9973. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 68 points at .9809
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. Bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been
trending higher for nearly three weeks. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9925. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of .9554. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9818 and then at
.9850. First support is seen at today’s low of .9744 and
then at this week’s low of .9710. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The September British pound closed up 68 points at 1.5731
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Prices have been
trending higher for nearly three weeks. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.5800. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at 1.5450. First resistance is seen at 
today’s high of 1.5754 and then at 1.5800. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5610 and then at 1.5593. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 63 points at
81.58 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh five-week low. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading as prices have
been trending lower for nearly three weeks. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the June high of 84.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 81.00.
Next resistance lies at 82.00 and then at this week’s high
of 82.36. First support is seen at today’s low of 81.39 and
then at 81.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 23/32 at 148 31/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 146 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at 149 16/32 and then
at 150 even. First support is seen at this week’s low of
148 12/32 and then at 148 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 8.5 (32nds) at 133.15.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the contract high of 134.30.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
133.31.0 and then at 134.05.5. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 133.07.0 and then at 133.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today as the bulls are gaining some fresh upside
near-term technical momentum. The market place was calmer
and in more of a “risk-on” mentality Tuesday following the
weekend Greek elections that have at least temporarily
assuaged the European Union debt and financial crisis.
There were reports Tuesday that Greece will form a new
coalition government as soon as Wednesday. Traders and
investors are awaiting the conclusion of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its
statement Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is determining its
next course of U.S. monetary policy. Recent downbeat U.S.
data has led to growing expectations for further easing of
U.S. monetary policy. Most reckon the Fed will implement
some form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this
week’s meeting. The key will be how aggressive the Fed will
respond with fresh easing.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 26.50 at 2,614.00.
Prices again closed nearer the session high again today and
hit a fresh five-week high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 2,433.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,626.00 and then at 2,650.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,585.00 and then at this
week’s low of 2,549.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 9.80 at 1,350.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh five-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,375.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June
low of 1,262.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1,356.80 and then at 1,370.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,336.80 and then at this week’s low of
1,327.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 119 points at 12,805 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh five-
week high today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 12,300.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,800 and then at
today’s high of 12,830. First support is seen at today’s
low of 12,730 and then at 12,700. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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