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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 19

Mar 20, 2012

Monday Evening, March 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.10 at
$125.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and closed at a fresh nine-week low close. Losses were
limited by bullish “outside markets” today—a weaker U.S.
dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Cash market
fundamentals are still shaky, which is scaring the bulls a
bit. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $128.05. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$124.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$126.15 and then at $126.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $124.95 and then at $124.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May feeder cattle closed down $1.12 at $154.77 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-
month low. Bulls are fading and prices are in a three-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. It looks like this
market has put in a near-term top. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at last week’s high of $149.40.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$152.50. First resistance is seen at $155.00 and then at
$155.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $154.60
and then at $154.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

June lean hogs closed down $0.20 at $93.40 today. Prices
closed mid-range today and hit a fresh two-month low.
Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted
recently. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, this market is well overdone
on the downside and due for at least a good corrective
bounce soon. The next upside price breakout objective for
the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $95.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of $92.45. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $93.70 and then at
$94.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $93.20 and
then at $92.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 10 1/2 cents at
$6.62 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today
and hit a fresh four-month high early on. Prices scored a
bullish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Profit
taking was featured today and no chart damage occurred.
Profit taking was featured. Corn market bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$6.83 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 6.50. First resistance for March corn
is seen at $6.65 and then at $6.70. First support is seen
at $6.60 and then at $6.54 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

May soybeans closed down 6 cents at $13.68 a bushel today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting
another fresh six-month high early on. Mild profit taking
was featured. Bean bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bean prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $14.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $13.25. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $13.78 and then at
$13.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $13.62 1/2
and then at $13.55 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $370.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw profit taking.
Meal bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $380.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $360.20.
First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $374.40
and then at $377.50. First support is seen at today’s low
of $370.00 and then at $366.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

May bean oil closed down 12 points at 55.38 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean oil bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices Friday closed at a bullish weekly high close and
closed at a fresh six-month high close. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
57.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 53.92 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 55.60 cents and
then at last week’s high of 55.70 cents. First support is
seen at 55.00 cents and then at 54.74. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 19 3/4 cents at $6.52 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart
after hitting a fresh two-week high early on. Some
beneficial moisture forecast for the U.S. Plains states hit
the wheat market today. Wheat bears have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of $6.77 3/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of $6.33 1/2.
First resistance is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.65. First
support lies at $6.50 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 14 cents at $6.91 1/2 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.22
1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of $6.76. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $7.00 1/2 and then at $7.10. First support is seen
at $6.85 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May oats closed steady at $3.34 1/4 today. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Prices Friday hit a four-
month high. The market has seen a big and bullish “upside
breakout” from a choppy and sideways trading range at lower
price levels. Bulls still have solid upside near-term
technical momentum. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.15. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at
today’s low of $3.33 and then at $3.30. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.39 and then at last week’s high
of $3.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 29 points at 25.70 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh 4.5-month high close. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Sugar bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of 25.81
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
24.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 25.81 cents and
then at 26.00 cents. First support is seen at 25.50 cents
and then at today’s low of 25.21 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

May coffee closed up 85 points at 183.20 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw short covering in a
bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
coffee today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude
oil prices were firmer. Prices are still in a choppy, 6.5-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above major psychological resistance at 200.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
175.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 186.60 cents and then at 190.00 cents. First
support is seen at the March low of 181.05 cents and then
at 180.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May cocoa closed up $42 at $2,298 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Bulls and bears are
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the March high of $2,426. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $2,144.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,304 and then
at $2,325. First support is seen at $2,240 and then at
$2,225. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed up 160 points at 89.08 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Cotton bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at the March low of 87.00
cents. First support is seen at 88.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 87.62 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 89.58 cents and then at 90.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May orange juice closed down 290 points at $1.8400 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the March high of $1.9695. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.8000. First resistance
is seen at $1.8500 and then at $1.8700. First support is
seen at the March low of $1.8275 and then at $1.8100.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed steady at $272.20 today. The
lumber bulls and bears are on a level playing field. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of $267.70. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $281.00. First
resistance is seen at $275.00 and then at $277.00. First
support is seen at $270.00 and then at $267.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $10.30 an ounce at
$1,666.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and were supported by bearish outside markets--a
weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Short
covering and bargain hunting were featured. However, prices
are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart and the bulls have work to do to regain upside
technical momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above
psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low $1,634.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,670.10 and then at
$1,675.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,652.30 and then at $1,640.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

May silver futures closed up $0.366 an ounce at $32.97
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting following recent selling
pressure. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the
silver market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and
crude oil prices were firmer. Prices are still in a three-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $34.41 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $31.625. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $33.09 and then at $33.47. Next support is
seen at $32.50 and then at today’s low of $32.33. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 355 points 391.35 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the copper market today as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
firmer. Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 400.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of 370.25 cents. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 394.00 cents and
then at 396.15 cents. First support is seen at 390.00 cents
and then at today’s low of 385.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed up $0.92 a barrel at
$108.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
closed at a fresh two-week high close today. A weaker U.S.
dollar index was bullish for crude today. Crude oil bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 5.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $110.95 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the March low of $104.29. First
resistance is seen at $109.00 and then at $110.00. First
support is seen at $108.00 and then at 107.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

May heating oil closed down 181 points at $3.2727 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.3500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.1570.
First resistance lies at $3.3000 and then at the March high
of $3.3127. First support is seen at $3.2500 and then at
$3.2268. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 63 points at $3.3599
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.5000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.2500. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high
of $3.3780 and then at $3.4000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.3415 and then at $3.3250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

May natural gas closed up 2.4 cents at $2.46 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-week high in
quieter trading. Short covering in a bear market was
featured today. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.75. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.25. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2.502 and then at $2.55. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.393 and then at the
contract low of $2.306. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 63 points at 1.3243 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high again today. Bulls and bears are back on a
level near-term technical playing field as the bulls have
gained some upside near-term momentum just recently. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 1.3494. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at the February low of 1.2987. First resistance for
the Euro lies at today’s high if 1.3272 and then at 1.3300.
Next support is seen at 1.3200 and then at today’s low of
1.3148. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 3 points at 1.2008 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading and
saw tepid short covering in a bear market after hitting
another fresh contract low last week. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no
early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.
Prices are in a steep seven-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.2213. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1750.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2055 and then
at 1.2100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1976
and then at 1.1922. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 51 points at 1.0983 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.1034. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at March low of 1.0725. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1011 and then at
1.1034. First support is seen at 1.0950 and then at today’s
low of 1.0906. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 22 points at 1.0499
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the February high of 1.0720. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0529 and then at
1.0565. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0449 and
then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 39 points at 1.0105
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. A 3.5-month-old uptrend line is
in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the February high of 1.0133. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
.9949. First resistance is seen at 1.0133 and then at
1.0150. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0050 and
then at 1.0030. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The June British pound closed up 56 points at 1.5879 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high on short covering. Bulls have regained the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.5971.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the March low of
1.5591. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5905
and then at 1.5991. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5812 and then at 1.5750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 37 points at 79.70
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
are fading and are back on a level near-term technical
playing field with the bears. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 81.16. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the February low of
78.42. Next resistance lies at 80.00 and then at today’s
high of 80.18. First support is seen at today’s low of
79.60 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 25/32 at 135 21/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit another
fresh 4.5-month low and scored a bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart. The market has been pressured by
recent upbeat U.S. economic data and a better risk appetite
in the market place. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred recently. Bears are in near-term technical
control. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 133 17/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 139 even. First
resistance is seen at 136 even and then at 136 16/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 135 5/32 and then at 135
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 18.0 (32nds) at 128.01.5
today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a
fresh 4.5-month low and scored a bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 129.16.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is seen at
128.16.0 and then at today’s high of 128.29.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 127.26.5 and then at
127.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today and once again the Nasdaq and S&P hit
multi-year highs. The stock index bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage and the path of least
resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher amid
no early warning signals that market tops are close at
hand.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 20.75 at 2,729.75.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart and hit
another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,750.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,735.00 and then at 2,750.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,700.25 and then at 2,686.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 5.70 at 1,404.20.
Prices closed near the session high today, scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart and hit another
fresh nearly four-year high today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,425.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,407.80 and then at 1,425.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,393.70 and then at 1,385.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5.

The Dow futures closed up 4 points at 13,167 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 12,698. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,200 and
then at last week’s high of 13,220. First support is seen
at today’s low of 13,142 and then at 13,100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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