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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 21

Mar 22, 2012

Wednesday Evening, March 21-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

 

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.42 at $124.95
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Cattle bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $127.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $121.05.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $125.75 and
then at $126.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$124.80 and then at this week’s low of $124.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $154.40 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and saw short covering
from recent strong selling pressure. Bears still have some
downside near-term technical momentum. Prices are in a
three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $157.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$152.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$155.10 and then at $156.00. First support is seen at
$154.00 and then at this week’s low of $153.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

June lean hogs closed down $0.45 at $92.20 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today and hit another
fresh 10-month low. Serious near-term technical damage has
been inflicted in hogs recently. Prices are in a steep
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However,
this market is well overdone on the downside and due for at
least a good corrective bounce soon. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $94.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at the May 2011 low of
$89.70. First resistance is seen at $93.00 and then at
$93.45. First support is seen at $92.00 and then at $91.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 5 cents at $6.42
1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low again today
and hit a fresh two-week low. More profit taking was
featured today. While no serious near-term chart damage has
occurred, the bulls have faded badly and need to show fresh
power soon to avoid damage. Corn market bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are still
in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $6.75 3/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 6.40. First resistance for March
corn is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.55. First support is
seen at $6.40 and then at $6.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

May soybeans closed up 10 cents at $13.55 a bushel today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bean
prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $14.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $13.25. First resistance is seen at $13.60 and
then at $13.68. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$13.41 3/4 and then at $13.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $4.20 at $369.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Meal bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $380.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $360.20. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $371.50 and then at last week’s high of
$374.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $365.40
and then at this week’s low of $363.80. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed up 5 points at 54.38 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bean oil bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 55.70 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
53.92 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
54.65 cents and then at 55.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 54.24 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $6.36 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh two-week low. Bears have fresh downside near-
term technical momentum. Beneficial moisture in the U.S.
Plains states has pressured the wheat market this week.
Wheat bears now have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $6.77 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of $6.33 1/2. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.47 1/2 and then at
$6.53 1/4. First support lies at $6.33 1/2 and then at
$6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents at $6.75 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a
fresh nine-week low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage and have gained fresh downside momentum this
week. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $7.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of $6.60. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.79 and then at $6.85. First support is
seen at $6.70 and then at $6.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

May oats closed down 5 1/2 cents at $3.25 1/2 today. Prices
closed near the session low and saw more profit taking.
Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but are fading a bit. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.15. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.41.
First support lies at this week’s low of $3.24 1/2 and then
at $3.21. First resistance is seen at $3.30 and then at
$3.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 21 points at 25.40 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today on
more profit taking after hitting a fresh 4.5-month high on
Tuesday. Sugar bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 26.20 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 24.50
cents. First resistance is seen at the February high of
25.81 cents and then at 26.00 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 25.21 cents and then at 24.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May coffee closed up 60 points at 184.20 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today. Coffee prices
are still in a choppy, 6.5-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above major psychological
resistance at 200.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 175.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 188.45 cents and then
at 190.00 cents. First support is seen at the March low of
181.05 cents and then at 180.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

May cocoa closed down $36 at $2,336 a ton. Prices closed
near the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field at present. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the March high of $2,426. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of $2,169. First
resistance is seen at $2,350 and then at $2,388. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,327 and then at
$2,300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May cotton closed up 41 points at 88.31 cents today. Prices
closed nearer the session low again today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Cotton bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 87.00 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 87.43 cents and then
at 87.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 89.10 cents and
then at this week’s high of 89.58 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

May orange juice closed down 735 points at $1.6950 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today and hit a
fresh three-month low. Serious near-term chart damage has
been inflicted in FCOJ this week. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.8000. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $1.6000. First resistance is seen at
$1.7250 and then at $1.7500. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.6840 and then at $1.6500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May lumber futures closed down $4.70 at $259.70 today.
Prices hit a fresh seven-week low again today. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted this week and the
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $250.00. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $272.50.
First resistance is seen at $263.00 and then at $265.00.
First support is seen at $257.50 and then at $255.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $4.00 an ounce at
$1,651.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Tepid short covering and bargain hunting were
featured. A firmer U.S. dollar index did limit the upside
in gold today. Bears continue to have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low $1,634.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,661.90 and then at
this week’s high of $1,670.10. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $1,641.20 and then at $1,634.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures closed up $0.406 an ounce at $32.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short
covering was featured. Silver prices are still in a three-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $34.41 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $31.625. First resistance is seen at
$32.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of $32.96. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of $31.75 and then at $31.625.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 80 points 383.85 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The U.S. dollar
index was firmer and that limited the upside in copper.
Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 400.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of 370.25 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 387.00 cents and then
at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 381.35 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed up $0.99 a barrel at
$107.06 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
as trading has turned choppy on the charts. Crude oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a 5.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at the March high of $110.95 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
March low of $104.29. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $107.64 and then at $108.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $106.06 and then at this week’s low of
105.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May heating oil closed down 184 points at $3.2315 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.3500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $3.1570. First resistance lies at $3.2500 and
then at $3.2667. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $3.2188 and then at $3.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 80 points at
$3.3433 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.5000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.2500. First resistance is
seen at Monday’s contract high of $3.3780 and then at
$3.4000. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$3.3099 and then at $3.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May natural gas closed up 1.0 cent at $2.442 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today in more quiet trading.
The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$2.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.502 and then at $2.55. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2.393 and then at the contract low of
$2.306. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 23 points at 1.3213 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today but did hit a fresh two-week high
early on. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of 1.3494.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the February
low of 1.2987. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high if 1.3292 and then at 1.3350. Next support is
seen at this week’s low of 1.3148 and then at 1.3100.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 31 points at 1.1989 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no
early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.
Prices are in a steep seven-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.2213. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1750.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.2055 and
then at 1.2100. First support is seen at 1.1938 and then at
last week’s low of 1.1889. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 17 points at 1.0966 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh two-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1034. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at March low of 1.0725. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1030 and then at
1.1100. First support is seen at 1.0937 and then at this
week’s low of 1.0906. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 17 points at 1.0350
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but
are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Prices have
been trending lower for three weeks. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at this week’s high of 1.0529. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0423 and then at
1.0500. Next support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0314
and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 4 points at 1.0061
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
3.5-month-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the February
high of 1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of .9949. First resistance is seen
at 1.0100 and then at this week’s high of 1.0122. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0045 and then at this
week’s low of 1.0011. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed down 5 points at 1.5854
today. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh
three-week high today. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.5971. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the March low of 1.5591.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5914 and then
at 1.5971. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5807
and then at 1.5750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 3 points at 79.85
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 81.16. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies
at 80.00 this week’s high of 80.18 and then at 80.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of 79.53 and then at 79.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 5/32 at 136 25/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high and saw more short
covering from recent strong selling pressure. Prices Monday
hit a 4.5-month low. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred recently. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 133 17/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 139 even. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 137 even and then
at 137 16/32. First support is seen at 136 even and then at
today’s low of 135 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 21.0 (32nds) at 128.18.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 129.16.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 128.20.5 and then at this week’s
high of 128.29.0. First support is seen at 128.10.0 and
then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mostly weaker today as prices eroded in afternoon trading.
The Nasdaq hit another multi-year high early on. The stock
index bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage and the path of least resistance for prices will
remain sideways to higher amid no early warning signals
that market tops are close at hand.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 0.50 at 2,736.00.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
11-year high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,750.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,600.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,748.50 and then at
2,765.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
2,700.25 and then at 2,686.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 2.20 at 1,397.80.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,350.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,407.80 and then at 1,425.00. First support
is seen at this week’s low of 1,391.80 and then at
1,385.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 42 points at 13,066 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 12,698. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,122 and
then at this week’s high of 13,200. First support is seen
at today’s low of 13,035 and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

 

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