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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 6

Mar 07, 2012

Tuesday Evening, March 6-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $2.62 at
$125.77 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today on heavy profit-taking pressure. Serous near-term
technical damage was been inflicted in cattle today as
prices hit a fresh six-week low. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
solidly higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower.
A 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was soundly
negated today. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $128.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $124.15.
First resistance is seen at $126.00 and then at $126.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $125.75 and then at
$125.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May feeder cattle closed down $2.85 at $157.70 today.
Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh
three-week low and saw more heavy profit-taking pressure.
Significant near-term technical damage was inflicted today
to suggest a market top is in place. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at $160.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$157.27. First resistance is seen at $158.00 and then at
$158.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $157.65
and then at $157.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

April lean hogs closed down $2.65 at $86.77 today. Prices
gapped sharply lower on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh
six-week low and closed nearer the session low today.
Serious near-term technical damage was inflicted today.
Bears now have gained the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$89.40. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of $85.50. First resistance is seen at
$87.00 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $86.60 and then at $86.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 6 3/4 cents at
$6.54 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
some profit-taking pressure. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was
solidly higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s
USDA monthly supply and demand report, which they reckon
will favor the bulls. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of $6.72 1/2. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $6.36 1/2. First resistance for March
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.59 3/4 and then at this
week’s high of $6.65 1/4. First support is seen at today’s
low of $6.49 1/2 and then at $6.47. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

May soybeans closed up 10 1/4 cents at $13.35 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh 5.5-month high close. Soybean bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more
upside momentum today, while other commodity markets
suffered. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA
monthly supply and demand report, which they expect will be
bullish. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $13.50 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below pyschological support at
$13.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$13.36 1/2 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at
$13.25 and then at $13.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $7.70 at $365.90 today. Prices
closed near the session high today, hit another fresh 5.5-
month high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart. Meal bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $366.00 and then at
$368.00. First support is seen at $362.50 and then at
$360.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May bean oil closed down 45 points at 53.28 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
three-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher
while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Spreaders were
selling bean oil and buying bean meal today. Bean oil bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
are fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of 54.35 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 53.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 53.50 cents and then at
today’s high of 53.90 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 53.24 cents and then at 53.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 14 1/4 cents at $6.57 3/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for wheat today, as the U.S.
dollar index was solidly higher while crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Friday
morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, which they
reckon will favor the bears. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.77 3/4
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $6.28. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.71 1/2 and then at
$6.77 3/4. First support lies at today’s low of $6.55 1/4
and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 18 cents at $6.98 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking.
Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $7.22 1/2. The bears'
next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$6.76 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$7.09 1/2 and then at $7.22 1/2. First support is seen at
$6.93 1/2 and then at $6.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May oats closed down 4 1/4 cents at $3.04 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-week low
today. Oats bulls have faded recently. Bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below major psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.16 1/4. First support lies at today’s low of $3.01
1/2 and then at $3.00. First resistance is seen at $3.06
and then at today’s high of $3.09 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 62 points at 24.06 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low, on more profit taking from recent
gains. The key “outside markets” were bearish for sugar
today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher while
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Sugar bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the February high of 25.81 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 23.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at 24.25 cents and then at 24.50 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 24.01 cents and then at 23.75
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May coffee closed down 905 points at 192.65 cents. Prices
closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 15-month
low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for coffee
today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher while
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Prices are in a
choppy, six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 202.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 185.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 195.00 cents and then at 197.80
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 192.55 cents
and then at 191.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cocoa closed up $21 at $2,304 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh three-
week low early on. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly
higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Yet,
cocoa managed price gains, which is a bullish clue for
cocoa. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$2,467. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,250. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,318 and then at this week’s high of $2,341. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,263 and then at
$2,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed down 81 points at 91.42 cents today. The
market traded sharply higher early on and then backed way
off to close nearer the session low when news reports today
said the Indian government may now be backing away from its
proclamation Monday that it is banning all cotton exports.
The key “outside markets” were also bearish for cotton
today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher while
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Cotton bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 94.57 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 87.80 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 90.77 cents and then at 90.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at 92.23 cents and then at 92.74
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

May orange juice closed down 360 points at $1.8850 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on profit taking after
hitting a fresh four-week high on Monday. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for FCOJ today, as the U.S. dollar
index was solidly higher while crude oil prices were
sharply lower. FCOJ bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at this week’s high of $1.9695.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.8000. First resistance is seen at $1.9000 and then at
today’s high of $1.9300. First support is seen at today’s
low of $1.8500 and then at $1.8250. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

May lumber futures closed down $0.70 at $275.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. The lumber bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage amid
choppy trading. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $269.70. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $285.40. First resistance is seen at
$278.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $273.30 and then at $271.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $29.80 an ounce
at $1,674.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit a fresh six-week low. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for gold today, as the U.S. dollar
index was solidly higher while crude oil prices were
sharply lower. The market today saw a bearish downside
“breakout” from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar
chart. Serious near-term technical damage was inflicted
today. The bulls next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,727.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,650.00. First resistance is seen at $1,688.40 and then
at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,663.40 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

May silver futures closed down $0.845 an ounce at $32.84
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low as bears have gained fresh downside
momentum. The key “outside markets” were bearish for silver
today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher while
crude oil prices were sharply lower. A two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $35.00 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $31.00.
First resistance is seen at $33.00 and then at $33.50. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $32.49 and then at
$32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 1,115 points 374.85 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly
higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower. The
market was also pressured by some slower economic growth
projections coming out of China. Copper bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but did fade
today. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of 370.25
cents. First resistance is seen at 378.00 cents and then at
380.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
373.65 cents and then at 370.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $1.88 a barrel at
$104.84 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh two-week low. The market was pressured by a
stronger U.S. dollar index today. Crude oil bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but did fade
today. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above
psychological resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below major psychological
support at $100.00. First resistance is seen at $106.00 and
then at $107.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$104.51 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

April heating oil closed down 243 points at $3.1927 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the April 2011
high of $3.3422. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $3.1605. First resistance
lies at this week’s high of $3.2340 and then at $3.2500.
First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1760 and then at
$3.1605. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 222 points at
$3.2358 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
more profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.3868.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at last week’s low of $3.1968.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.2705 and
then at this week’s high of $3.2936. First support is seen
at today’s low of $3.2138 and then at $3.1968. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

April natural gas closed down 0.2 cents at $2.353 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.65. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $2.25. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $2.441 and then at $2.50. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of $2.343 and then
at $2.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 112 points at 1.3123 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit a fresh three-week
low. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3325. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at the February low of 1.2987.
First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3170 and then at
1.3200. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3110 and
then at 1.3050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 93 points at 1.2383 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high saw more short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.2512. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.2200. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2421 and then at 1.2473. First support is
seen at 1.2350 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 82 points at 1.0899 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. Bulls are fading and are back on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1050. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of
1.0781. First resistance is seen at 1.0950 and then at this
week’s high of 1.0992. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1.0891 and then at 1.0840. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 108 points at 1.0434
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low on more profit taking from recent
gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade today. A three-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at this week’s high of 1.0611. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0300. First
resistance is seen at 1.0500 and then at today’s high of
1.0565. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0402 and
then at 1.0350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The June Canadian dollar closed down 68 points at .9971
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more
profit taking today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading a bit. A 3.5-month-old
uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the February high of
1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of .9923. First resistance is seen at
1.0000 and then at today’s high of 1.0039. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9949 and then at .9923. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed down 147 points at 1.5711
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage but faded
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of 1.5971. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the February low of 1.5632. First resistance is seen at
1.5800 and then at today’s high of 1.5866. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5685 and then at 1.5632. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 60 points at 80.33
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh six-week high close. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 80.58. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the February low of 78.42. Next
resistance lies at 80.58 and then at 81.00. First support
is seen at 80.00 and then at this week’s low of 79.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up one full points at 141 29/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
benefited from the “risk off” day in the market place
today. The bond market bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of 139 11/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 143 1/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 142 10/32 and then at 143 1/32 even. First
support is seen at 141 16/32 and then at 141 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 15.5 (32nds) at 131.11.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at last week’s high of 131.19.5. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 130.03.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.16.5 and then at 131.19.5. First
support is seen at 131.00.0 and then at today’s low of
130.25.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. ock indexes closed
solidly lower today and saw a corrective technical pullback
and more profit-taking pressure. The stock index bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s key U.S. jobs
report.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 26.25 at
2,589.75. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,542.75. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,617.50 and then at 2,630.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,575.00 and then
at 2,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 22.50 at 1,341.90.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-
week low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,400.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,334.30. First
resistance is seen at 1,350.00 and then at today’s high of
1,365.40. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,338.80
and then at 1,334.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 217 points at 12,744 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-
week low today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 13,000. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 12,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high
of 12,810 and then at 12,865. First support is seen at
today’s low of 12,725 and then at 12,700. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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